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Amazing! Actual eBay auction results: PCGS pulls more than double the dollars of NGC slabs
Justhavingfun
Posts: 835 ✭
A friend and I keep close tabs on eBay (and other auction results) for US-Philippine coins. We discuss our data together, and he spotted something that I missed -- that four times since we've been keeping records, coins of the same grade in NGC and PCGS slabs were auctioned.
I "knew" PCGS slabs were worth more, but still the size of the gap amazed and astonished me. The coins in PCGS holders pulled in 152% more greenbacks -- well more than double the coins of the same date and same grade pulled in NGC holders.
Here are the actual auction results for the 8 US-Philippine coins.
-- 1921 10 centavo in MS-64. In a NGC slab, it sold for $41. Same date coin in the same grade in a PCGS slab, sold for $107, which works out to 160% more than the NGC slab.
-- 1931 5 centavo MS-64: PCGS, $364. NGC, $106. The PCGS slab pulled 243% more than the NGC slab.
-- 1903 5 centavo Proof 65: PCGS, $217. NGC, $153. The PCGS slab pulled 41% more
-- 1912-S 20 centavo: PCGS AU-55, $112. NGC AU-58, $56. Here, a PCGS coin, in a lower slab doubled the NGC coin in a higher graded slab.
Overall, the four coins in the NGC slabs pulled $356 dollars. The four coins in the PCGS slabs pulled in $900 on the nosey -- or 152% more.
Just having fun, and lots of it, out here in Thailand
I "knew" PCGS slabs were worth more, but still the size of the gap amazed and astonished me. The coins in PCGS holders pulled in 152% more greenbacks -- well more than double the coins of the same date and same grade pulled in NGC holders.
Here are the actual auction results for the 8 US-Philippine coins.
-- 1921 10 centavo in MS-64. In a NGC slab, it sold for $41. Same date coin in the same grade in a PCGS slab, sold for $107, which works out to 160% more than the NGC slab.
-- 1931 5 centavo MS-64: PCGS, $364. NGC, $106. The PCGS slab pulled 243% more than the NGC slab.
-- 1903 5 centavo Proof 65: PCGS, $217. NGC, $153. The PCGS slab pulled 41% more
-- 1912-S 20 centavo: PCGS AU-55, $112. NGC AU-58, $56. Here, a PCGS coin, in a lower slab doubled the NGC coin in a higher graded slab.
Overall, the four coins in the NGC slabs pulled $356 dollars. The four coins in the PCGS slabs pulled in $900 on the nosey -- or 152% more.
Just having fun, and lots of it, out here in Thailand
Jefferson nickels, Standing Libs, and US-Philippines rock
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Comments
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Complete US-PHIL Coins for Sale, Circulation Strikes 1903-1945
Do I find NGC's grading so different?
Myself, I found NGC to be slightly lighter than PCGS -- maybe a quarter of a point to half a point on average. At least on the classic coins like the Shield Nickels, Standing Liberty Quarters, and US Philippines.
But I think they shot themselves in the foot with their loose grading of the moderns. I bought many "super-high-grade" NGC Roosies as part of a larger PCGS collection, but boy, not one of the NGC super-grade coins came within a point of the nominal grade. And at one time, I bought the late date NGC proofs graded 70 Ultra Cameo. The "70" grades were a joke.
On the other hand, the Ultra Cameo's were accurate. And speaking of attributions, I collect full step Jeffersons, full band Roosies, and full head Standing Liberties, and found NGC better than PCGS on all three attributions. So, for instance, if NGC slabbed a coin full steps, I'll trust it. If PCGS slabs a coin full steps, I'll insist on seeing the steps, first.
But how NGC grades isn't entirely the issue. Because on eBay, I can't really judge the quality of the coin from the scan. So essentially, when I buy the slab, I'm buying sight unseen -- and have to bid accordingly.
So what the price differential is telling me is the market place's perception of the NGC's grading. And obviously the perception is that the NGC coins are probably a point lower (or more) in grade. Again, I think that's a result of the bad reputation they're giving themselves by overgrading US moderns for TV sales.
Also let's keep in mind Jet Black's experience, with a same date 10 centavo in an NGC holder, with a two-point lower grade, getting an obviously good price. That's an excellent counterexample.
Bottom line: my sampling of eight coins is too small be be anything approaching definitive, but it is a powerful pointer.
Enjoy yourselves!
Just Having Fun
1836 Capped Liberty
dime. My oldest US
detecting find so far.
I dig almost every
signal I get for the most
part. Go figure...
Results:
8 crossed at the same grade (NGC to PCGS although 1 of the 8 downgraded crossing from ANACS to NGC before crossing to PCGS.)
2 upgraded (NGC to PCGS)
1 downgraded (NGC to PCGS)
Coins crossed were:
1945-S Five Centavos. NGC MS66 PCGS MS66.
1904 Ten Centavos. NGC MS65 PCGS MS66.
1945-D Ten Centavos. NGC MS67 PCGS MS67.
1904 Twenty Cenavos. NGC MS66 PCGS MS67.
1904 Fifty Centavos. NGC MS65 PCGS MS65.
1921 Fifty Centavos. NGC MS63 PCGS MS63.
1936-M Murphy & Quezon Fifty Centavos. NGC MS64 PCGS MS64.
1945-S Fifty Centavos. NGC MS67 PCGS MS67.
1904 Peso. NGC MS64 PCGS MS64.
1908-S Peso. ANACS MS64 NGC MS63 PCGS MS63.
1936-M Murphy & Quezon Peso. NGC MS66 PCGS MS65.
All of these coins were bought via the internet. Nine of the 11 crossed on the first attempt the other 2 were submited a second time and crossed. I have crossed a few other USA-Phillipines coins that I no longer own and they crossed at the same grade. I also have 2 PCGS slabed coins that upgraded at PCGS, a Roosevelt-Quezon Peso that went from MS65 to MS66 and a 1918-S Twenty Centavos that went from MS62 to MS63.
I've just redone my USA-Phillipines image gallery (It includes the MacArthur Fifty Centavos & Peso as well as both Wilson Dollars [Sorry - no gold Wilson Dollar
I think you have a hot, fun idea there. Take a handful of US-Philippine coins in P slabs ... crack 'em out and see what N gives you. And then crack 'em out and see if P gives you the second time around. I think that would be a hoot. I have the coins, but I live in Asia and can't do it from here. If one of the enterprising young numismatists with whom I'm acquainted wants to give that a whirl, I'll send off 4 of these coins to him or her.
After all, isn't this what it's all about, i.e.,
Just Having Fun!
JustHavingFun, I wish I could help you as I would find that interesting (I've read posts like this on the liteside but never saw anybody go for the experiment in a big way--maybe I missed it). Unfortunately, I don't have PCGS priveliges as I have yet to join up officially.
Cathy
Good to hear from you.
I've had similar success in crossing coins from NGC to PCGS. On one occasion, I had a super-high grade US-Philippine proof set (averaging about 66.5) in N holders and they all crossed grade for grade to the P holders.
But the value of the slabs is a different matter and all I'm doing is stating facts. I'm not for it, I'm not against it. My friend found four of these pairs, same denomination, same date, same grade, in N and P holders, and them's the prices.
Warm regards from Bangkok where I'm ...
Just Having Fun
Just Having Fun
Justhavingfun - I don't disagree about the price difference between PCGS and NGC slabs, I was just tossing in my two centavos worth of experience regarding PCGS vs NGC grading of USPI coins. I personally prefer having my coins in PCGS holders as they look nicer and the market places a higher value on them in the PCGS holders, however I'm quite happy to buy USPI coins in NGC holders at the lower market prices.
I'm not so interested in slabs for their own sake, but as most of my buying opportunities are online I prefer to buy in slabs to minimize dissappointing purchases. I hate to 'buy the plastic' and the insurance conferred isn't a 100%, but it does decrease my buying anxiety from ebay. Other than the very occasional Japanese coin where I have more familiarity, I pretty much won't touch anything else raw on ebay anymore. I have a different opinion when it comes to known sellers of course.
I might have to try to assess if the PCGS/NGC differential exists with Japanese coins too...an interesting project!!
Cathy
Second, you write "I'm quite happy to buy USPI coins in NGC holders at the lower market prices." Of course. Me too. Who wouldn't?
Hello Stork:
Yes, it would be a fun project to see if the same price differential held true for Japanese coins. And simple. You just start keeping eBay auction records of all the sales of slabbed Japanese coins. Sooner or later you'll start getting repeats. Then the numbers will speak.
Warm regards,
Just Having Fun
Thanks for the report, I like seeing market trends on coin series. However, I think that the sample you used was too small to make any strong conclusions either way. IMHO, ebay is far more fickle than other "traditional" auction houses. It has been discussed many times on the US forum about the best way to get strong money for your coin, no matter the holder. It has been agreed by many (including myself from experience) that the following is key:
7 day auctions are usually best for maximum exposure
end the auctions on a Sunday evening around 7 pm Pacific time
have large, clear pictures of both the coin and the slab
provide accurate info on the coin, but not too much fluff
allow overseas bidders, as long as your comfortable with the countries involved
allow more than one form of payment
return policy is fair, as long as coin is still in slab
I don't think i'm alone in the fact that i've overlooked many coins because one of those aspects were missing. In fact, I try to go after darkside coins (NGC and PCGS) that end at funky times (maybe a tuesday at 2 am or something) as these coins won't have as many active viewers, and i've gotten some great deals because of this. If a person were to pull up a coin series like you've done, and factored in the above stated conditions, I think it would equate to more of an apples-to-apples comparison; or....i think "traditional" auctions may be a better barometer because the coins from the same country usually end on the same day, are presented the same way and cataloged together. Whether a "traditional" auction or ebay, we must keep in mind that there are always hard-headed "bidiots" out there, that will skew the numbers on a coin comparison because they are competing with another bidder and simply don't want to lose.
Lastly, I think that the whole PCGS vs. NGC comparison on world coins is a tough one due to the fact that there are simply so many more NGC world coins out there, many of them are rarities. A country to country comparison may be a bit easier than a flat PCGS vs. NGC assessment. For instance, Goldberg's 'Millenia' auction is coming up the first of next year to much fanfare. It is already being reported to feature some of the rarest world coins ever presented in an auction, and it is expected to bring the highest sales numbers of any world coin auction. ALL of the coins in this auction are NGC slabbed; comparing these rarities to ones in PCGS plastic (if they even exist) would be very tough at best.
I always love your input JHF, and admire your collecting savvy and collections in general. thanks for starting this interesting thread.
Doug
Do ebay auctions of high end items do as well as similar coins auctioned by Heritage?
Here's a chance to find out, since two MS65 1928/7 20 ctvs sold recently on Heritage, and now there is a Top Pop MS 66 example on ebay. NO WAY can I afford that one, but I'm watching it to see what it fetches.
I suspect Justhavinfun already has one (or more) of the other top pops, or he could debunk the auction's claim, if he has one higher than MS 66.
Here's the link for those who can afford to consider it.
PCGS MS66 1928/7-M 20 Centavos Mule
Hello Doogy:
You write: " IMHO, ebay is far more fickle than other "traditional" auction houses." I agree, especially so on the foreign coins, and the US series that are relatively thinly traded like the nickel 3 cent pieces or the US Philippines. Since it takes two bidders to make a lively auction, in a thinly traded series, the absence of a second bidder can change the price realized from $4,000 to $40,000.
If there's an important Liberty Head Nickel or US Philippine lot at an eBay auction, and I miss it, I miss it. If it's at a Superior or Heritage auction, one of two dealers is almost certain to tell me about it. And that's the difference. That's why, on the thinly traded series, eBay can be very erratic.
One strong bidder versus two. Now if you were auctioning off a 1909-SVDB penny, MS 67 RED, I wouldn't be surprised if you got very strong money on eBay, because the Lincoln pennies are a cult series and they're always posting on the PCGS message boards. So everyone will know about the auction.
One last point ... your 7 rules for a good auction on eBay are great. I'm going to send them to a few friends who really do those auctions.
Best wishes to both of you ...
Just Having Fun
1/2 Cents
U.S. Revenue Stamps
Personally I find that PCGS and ICCS do grade Canadian coins more conservatively than NGC. Having said that, the market bias against NGC has allowed me to find a few bargains hiding in overlooked NGC slabs.
http://www.victoriancent.com
"Here's a chance to find out, since two MS65 1928/7 20 ctvs sold recently on Heritage, and now there is a Top Pop MS 66 example on ebay. NO WAY can I afford that one, but I'm watching it to see what it fetches. "
Dear IloiloKano po:
My records show three 20 centavo (1928/7) MS 65 mules sold at auction recently. Valley Coin put up two of them on eBay and realized $3,219 and $3,271 respectively for them. The third mule was sold at Heritage and pulled $3,500 after the vigorish, about 8 percent more. But when you auction a coin on eBay, the auction is over and done with and the money in your pocket within a month. Going to Heritage, and waiting for them to put the coin up for auction, and then waiting for them to give you the money -- usually months after the fact -- it works out to about the same.
So far as the MS66 mule is concerned, yes, that should be interesting. I have the other one in MS 66, so I haven't decided whether or not to bid on it. But even without me, the bidding should be spirited and I wouldn't be surprised to see the coin go off the boards at double the price for the coin in MS 65 (or about $6,500). Or even, two-and-a-half times MS 65 prices, which would bring it to $8,000. We'll soon see. Should be interesting, instructive, and fun.
Best wishes,
Just Having Fun
You might have missed this Heritage Auction, in which an MS65 1928/7M 20 centavos sold for $4,600 after the buyer's premium, which puts final bidding at $4,000. Though the premium must be considered when assessing the amount bidders are willing to pay, since they surely know of it up front. Also, this was a quite recent auction, and prices of US-PI coins have been, and are continuing to, rise quite dramatically. This auction ended September 27th of this year, and here is the link.
USA Administration 20 Centavos 1928-M Mule, KM-174, MS65 PCGS, Gem brilliant Uncirculated
You will need to log in to Heritage to confirm the final price, since it is now in their auction archives.
Even Heritage auctions sometimes see discrepancies in final bid amounts though. Here is an MS64 1928/7-M 20 Centavos, and not a particularly attractive example either, which drew a final price, including BP, of $5,290 on January 9th, 2005.
20 Centavos 1928/7-M Mule, KM174, MS64 PCGS
It is certainly worth creating a Heritage account to log in and search their archives, since it is then easy to find auctions such as the following $55,000 MS65 gem, (BEFORE the 15% buyer's premium), in which even you were outbid.
Whoa! Now, THAT is a cause for envy!
The previous "AU" 1912-S Peso, which I won on ebay for $330 had the parallel hairline scratches of an old "cleaning", but the seller demonstrated his integrity by allowing a return, so I am still searching for both 1911-S and 1912-S pesos to add to my AU collection. I won't be getting an AU 1906-S though, as they are simply too expensive for me.
Please pardon my curiosity as I ask two questions.
First, is your own collection complete, including the 1903-S 50 Centavos (2 known) and the 1907-P proof Peso (2 known)?
The second question is whether there ever was even one 1910-S 10 Centavos minted, and if not, why does my reference make the statement that it is unknown in any collection, as no fantasy dated coin is "known" in any collection?
If you'd rather not discuss what you do or do not have in your collection, that is of course understandable.
Thanks,
IloiloKano, biding my time in California...
Actually, I was the one who won the mule. I saw two really desirable coins going up for auction on eBay. I had them both, but lusted after them as duplicates, so I entered low-ball bids on both of them.
The 1905-S type 1 peso, MS 63 (pop 8/0), went for $7,350. I was the underbidder at $7,250.
But the 1928/7-S mule, 20 centavo, one of the most famous coins in the US-Philippine series, MS66, pop 2/0, I really lucked out and got it for $6,125. Wow, was I pleased to pick it up for well under what I had estimated it for.
But even these prices, for two "keys" to the US Philippines, show that the series are coming into their own. A few years ago, I picked up the other mule in MS 66, which back then was pop 1/0 -- for $2,600. And now a pop 2/0 costs $6,125.
And the 1905-S that I lost at $7,250, I picked up my other sample in MS 63 for -- are you sitting down -- for $250. Yup, this series is beginning to come into its own. And the price increases are, in my opinion, just beginning, because the series is just beginning to pick up popularity.
Warm regards from chilly Hong Kong,
Just Having Fun
how about this
1904 half centavo MS65 RD
per review of your PCGS Set Registry you only have 1904 half centavo in MS65 RB. you are lacking an MS65RD of this.
did you bid on it? what can you say about the price realized?
jepoy
My Registry Sets are really, really out of date. I'm not part of the computer generation, and I've never been able to figure out how to post pictures or enter coins in the Registry Set. All my Registry Sets were put up years ago by my bright, computer-savvy secretary in the US who left my employ when I moved to Asia. If she posted a 65 RB, it's only because she inadvertently missed my 66 RB or 65 RED.
I was bidding on the Valley Coin auctions through an agent. I did see that 1904 RED and considered bidding on it, because the '04 is scarce in true red. And to a pack-rat like me, any high-grade 1904 half centavo in red is of interest.
But while the scans made it out to be a nice looking coin, the scans also made it look Red-Brown, not RED, and if anything, more brown than red. I'm a long-time believer in buying the coin not the plastic, so I stood aside.
Bottom line: I didn't think it was a true RED, and I didn't need it even if I was wrong. So I let it go on the cheap.
Just Having Fun in Hong Kong
"I not only use all the brains that I have, but all that I can borrow."
Woodrow Wilson (1856 - 1924)
I think NEN missed the price of their mule.
To be sure, IloKano, cites 1928/7-M mule in MS64 that went for $5,290, at a Heritage auction in January, 2005. That would certainly make NEN's $9,750 price for the mule in MS65 seem modest.
But since then, two other 1928/7-M mules in MS65 (PCGS) recently sold on eBay for $3,200 and change. So NEN is charging 3 times replacement cost for their sample. Too much, in my opinion.
Looking at the NEN pricing a second way, and as I mentioned, I won the 1928 mule in MS66 for $6,125. That was pop 2/0. So NEN is charging 50% more for their MS 65 (Pop 6/2/0) than a higher-graded sample
NEN is a good dealer with good offerings, usually at reasonable prices. But even the best of dealers misses the right price now and then. It seems clear to me that they did on this one.
Enjoy yourself!
Just Having Fun