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Topic: 1863 Half Dime Mintage and Survival Rates. Talk amongst yourselves...
coinlieutenant
Posts: 9,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
The low mintage is understood, but the pops tell a story of hoarding...not melting.
Anyone care to discuss? If not, I will chat with the crickets.
John
Anyone care to discuss? If not, I will chat with the crickets.
John
0
Comments
CoinLieutenant's inference of hoarding has to be true.
What was apparent to me was that the 1868 half dime with a 6X higher mintage than the 1863....was far tougher in my opinion.
The 1840-0 WD half dime stood out as the most underrated branch mint that listed for not more than common. Red Book lists a whopping 240,000 mintage! Needless to say, over the years I bought every 40-0 WD and 68-P I could find and ignored the 1863 unless it was dirt cheap.
When it comes to seated coins and survival rates, you can toss the mintage figure right out the window in many cases. But ironically, newbies head right to the low mintage (hoard) coins. And sellers are more than happy to provide them. Even Coin Values Magazine perpetrates this "mintage=rarity" myth which I find rather fascinating as well as disappointing.
Now about them crickets....
roadrunner
In the fall of 2000 I published an article in the Gobrecht Journal (official quarterly journal of the Liberty Seated Collectors Club) entitled "An Analysis of Rarity and Population Estimates for Liberty Seated Half Dimes". In that article, I admonished collectors that there are simply no accurate figures or data on which to base survival rates, and therefore, the very best that we can do is to 'estimate' the extant population through purely subjective observation. One collector, or a group of specialists, who devote many years to the study of a specific series can present their observations, and we can extrapolate upon that at our own peril. Short of declaring marshall law, and recalling all of the 1863 half dimes for an accurate head count, this is the very best that we can accomplish.
The very few, very limited census surveys conducted by the Liberty Seated Collectors Club over the years are both interesting and informative, but as I pointed out in the last half dime survey, significantly less than 1% of the total mintage was reported in member's holdings. This can hardly be reflective of actual survival numbers.
Having said that, I will concur with the statement made by Roadrunner, that the 1863 half dime appears to be perhaps the most available of the five Civil War dates (1863-1867), with 1865 being the least available of that group, followed closely by the 1867. The proof issues for these dates are generally much more available than the business strikes, but because the business strikes were minted using the same dies as the proofs in many cases, it often becomes difficult to distinguish the difference. Often the only difference between a business strike and a proof for these dates was the use of polished planchets for the proofs, and after more than 130 years of either circulation wear or just environmental toning, the surface differences can be difficult to distinguish.
In my 2000 article, I grouped the 1863 half dime with the other Civil War dates, and also with the 1846 and 1853-O No Arrows half dimes, in Rarity Group C, defined as an estimated surviving population of 75-150 pieces. I would place the 1863 at the high end of this range, and the 1865 at the bottom. Again, this is based upon my own long term observations and study of the series, and not upon any concrete figures. As such, it is subject to revision.
As Roadrunner mentioned, I would nominate the 1868 half dime for inclusion in this well known group of "Civil War" dates, as it is rarely seen. In my LSCC article I placed the 1868 in Rarity Group D (151-400 extant pieces estimated), but it would be at the low end of that range.
Perhaps when considering all grades, the 1840-O With Drapery may be somewhat available, as Roadrunner states, but I know how difficult it was for me to locate an attractive, original, toned specimen in high AU grade. I placed it in the Rarity Group D group, along with the aforementioned 1868.
For the 1863 half dime, it is readily found in mint state grades with only a minimum of searching. Well circulated specimens, in VG-VF grades, are much scarcer, but because of the pricing structure for these dates, a well circulated specimen is not significantly less expensive than a mint state example; collectors are usually content to purchase the more available mint state example for only a small additional cost.
Not much substantive information here, but unless or until we can somehow develop an accurate method to determine survival rates, these subjective estimates are the best we have.
I essentially agree with what others have said in this thread. The 1863-p is indeed a touch more common than the 1864 to 1867 coins, but it is still a key date in the series. I really would like to know what standards are applied at PCGS to differentiate the MS coins and the proofs. They came from the same pair of dies, so how can one tell?
Regarding the "Civil War" P-mints, I also have to agree that the 1865-P is in fact the toughest. My collection is missing the 1865-P business strike and the 1867-P business strike, and finding these coins for sale is not easy. When I finally buy them, I will probably go for "BU" specimens, since a VF will probably cost ~ $1000, whereas a PCGS MS64 could be had for $1500-$1800, a modest increase in price for a big increase in quality. Lack of collector demand has kept the prices down on these significant rarities in the upper mint state grades. There are only a handful of people trying to complete sets by date and mint mark, and most of those are not buying MS66 coins. Opportunity knocks for someone with the resources to buy these dates in ultra-high grade at what seem to be bargain prices.
I would like to throw the 1869-P into the mix, and propose that it is no more common than the 1868-P. Of course, I collect in XF, AU, and Unc. grades, so perhaps the 1869-P is more available in low grade, keeping the price down? Would like to hear others thoughts. My example of this date is a VF-35 with slightly scuffy surfaces, bought raw from ebay after a couple of years of waiting. I passed on three MS64 coins in the mean time, though, perhaps mistakenly.
I have always been intrigued with survival rates and mintages, and, like RR, always chuckle at the "lemming" approach by new collectors and even some dealers when it comes to low mintage coins.
I think that the 1863 is a perfect example of this phenomenon. Go out on major dealers sites and see how many 63's you can find. Quite a few (relatively) if I had to guess.
It is also interesting to look at pops (I dont think that they are completely useless)...3 MS68's for the date and quite a few other superb gems. Regrades? Perhaps, but it isnt often that someone thinks that they can get a 69 out of a 68 coin.
Thoughts on the high grade nature of the survivors?
siliconvalleycoins.com
siliconvalleycoins.com
try this link
rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
I feel somewhat fortunate that I took the time to do seated liberty series census in the 1970's. I also included all the bust series, Barbers in Unc, trade dollars, 3cs, 3cn, and most of the post-1878 gold. In short I was looking for stuff that was underrated and underpriced. Within 6 months I had a pretty nice shopping list.
After several years I felt my data was pretty useful. It was my pop report 10 years before they even existed. And one nice benefit was being able to compare different series, such as an 1802 half dime to say an 1878-s half dollar to an 1872-s quarter. The very first coin taken off the list was the 1853 A&R quarter...the most common seated coin. After a month of recording over a hundred of these, it was removed. But it was recorded as a multiple of the next most common date. And so on.
While some mathematical modelers shot some holes in my study (and rightly so) it at least told me what did or didn't show up for sale at the time based on its current pricing. Expensive coins for the times like 1802 half dime or 1860-0 dimes did show up, probably more than their rarity because of how famous and popular they were....and much more so than say an 1874-cc dime or 1865-P half dime of which were quite underpriced and not fully recognized.
It can explain why an 1868 half dime showed up less than the rarer Philly coins (ie it was listed as near common with little premium, hence people were after them).
In any case here was a brief listing of some of my half dime pops by
number of appearances....and this is all relative. My half dime and dime date is not as extensive as the quarter data as it was quite clear early on which series had more cheap/underrated dates per CoinWorld trends. That's what I went after. In hindsight my survey probably overrated the 40-0 wd half dime but probably got it in the ball park for the low mintage Philly coins...esp when in circ. The data still tells me more than the TPG pop reports ever will. Proof coins were not included in these surveys nor where circulated proofs whenever I could weed them out.
1840 wd - 18
1840-0 wd - 16
1841-0 33
1842-0 33
1844-0 25
1846 29
1848 LD 28
1853-0 NA 23
1863 36 (27 circs)
1864 21 (16)
1865 20 (12)
1866 33 (9)
1867 22 (9)
1868 19 (10)
1880 nickel 17 (4)
1804 dime 22
1874-cc dime 1 (this never showed up)
1872-cc dime 28
1878-cc dime 41
1879 dime 29 (8 circ)
1885-s dime 23
Bottom line, the survey told me what was hard to find and what wasn't. It made that very clear within 6-12 months. The best dates I continued on for a year or two longer. As the UNC bug bit me I continued on with UNC seated quarters and dimes for a number of years tracking all the best coins that hit auctions and price lists. I think that was the best data to come of my efforts. From this it was quite apparent that supposedly available dates like 1847, 1848, 1853-0, 1858-0 dimes in nice unc were impossible to find. Same could be said for most of the O and S mint seated quarters. I also tracked "O" mint half dimes in Unc for some time and made it a point to find nice examples of 50-0, 51-0, and 56-0. There never was a nice or legit UNC 1840-0 WD half dime to go after during that period. Don Taxay was well aware of this in the 1970's as well as published in his Scott's Cat.
roadrunner
<< <i>
Very creative!
Each of us, particularly those who have developed a specialty in one specific series, learns to identify which coins are available in what grades, and which coins are scarce, regardless of what may or may not have been printed in the available literature. I would not recognize a rare quarter eagle or even a scarce Morgan VAM (if, indeed, there is any such thing) if it jumped up and bit me, but I have spent all of my collecting life studying and collecting half dimes, exclusively, and through all of that time I have developed my own ideas about rarity and survival rates, particularly in the grades of EF-40 to MS-63, the grades I collect. I am less able to intelligently discuss survival rates of these same coins in grades below VF, or above MS-64, because I do not spend much time looking for them.
Perhaps, over a long period of time, we may be able to better understand the relative rarity of different dates in a series, but this will only happen if we continue to conduct broad-based census surveys, with significant participation, over many years, much like the EAC and Bust Half Nut Club has conducted for so many years. None of these is perfect, and all are fraught with caveats limiting their accuracy, but little by little they help to provide better insight into this much sought after information.
J/K, it's very enjoyable to read threads like this.
(...Philly coins only...)
1863 ~ 7 circulation strikes (VF25-MS60) + 1 proof (PR61)
1864 ~ 2 circulation strikes (AU58-MS63) + 1 proof (PR64)
1865 ~ 1 circulation strike (MS62)
1866 ~ 6 circulation strikes (AU50-MS65)
1867 ~ 2 circulation strikes (F12-AU58) + 4 proof (PR62-PR64)
1868 ~ 2 circulation strikes (AU53-MS62) + 1 proof (PR63)
Taking a census of specialist's collections is also error-riddled because those types tend to concentrate on what the most underrated pieces are. These skew the census away from the rarer coins and make them appear somewhat commoner.
I was scanning through the CDN monthly sheet I last night and was shocked at how far off so many of the smaller seated denoms were.
This gives some opportuntists to market semi-scarce dates as "rare" esp if the mintage happens to be low. Maybe the recent Stack's auction will help to bolster seated quarter prices a tad.
roadrunner
<< <i>I was scanning through the CDN monthly sheet I last night and was shocked at how far off so many of the smaller seated denoms were.
This gives some opportuntists to market semi-scarce dates as "rare" esp if the mintage happens to be low. Maybe the recent Stack's auction will help to bolster seated quarter prices a tad.
roadrunner >>
I attended that auction and I was surprised at how many coins hammered at numbers above I thought "retail" was, and way above Greysheet. Guess "retail" values have now changed.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
I've also noticed that the 1863 Three Dollar Gold piece appears to be more available than other low mintage Civil War Threes. Maybe someone saved coins that year. But then, the 1863 $10 liberty is almost impossible.
hrh
half eagles are extremely tough and i am unsure if i ever saw
one for sale. Both do not have a mint state piece graded by
PCGS. AUs being the highest.
Date--------------------Total graded----------------PCGS graded----------NGC graded
________________(all combined)____________________________________________
1863-------------------------89-------------------------------28----------------------28
1864-------------------------34---------------------------------6----------------------10
1865-------------------------35---------------------------------7----------------------11
1866-------------------------36--------------------------------10-----------------------9
1867-------------------------52--------------------------------14----------------------23
1868-------------------------34--------------------------------10----------------------12
1869-------------------------38--------------------------------11----------------------18
Conclusions?
1) The 1863 does indeed seem to be much more available than the other H10c of this era.
2) The 1869-P may be similar to the others in this group in terms of auction availability in higher grade. This is not a suprise to seasoned H10c collectors who know 1869 is one of the most underrated dates in XF+ grade.
3) At a glance, the 1867-P would appear to be significantly more common than 1864, 1865, 1866, 1868, or 1869 in the MS grades. Perhaps this is the biggest surprise from this analysis?
Disclaimers
1) No effort was made to eliminate duplicate auctions of the same coin. However, there is no reason to believe that would have a significant effect on any one date as opposed to the others.
2) These data reflect the availability at auction, but not the true scarcity (total surviving population) of any given date. If someone has a hoard of 100 half dimes dated 1864, then those might not be coming up for auction as often, for example.
3) Coins like the 1869-P are not valuable enough to be worth submitting in G to VF grades, unlike the 1863-P, which is worth hundreds of dollars even in the lowest grade. Thus, it is possible that there are a lot of uncertified 1869-P coins in low grade holding down the market price.
Some of the most superb gem unc half dimes out there are 1863's.
roadrunner
As far as the difference in price, they are oftentimes off on their valuations...just like greysheet is. One is only slightly less rare than the other IMO.
John
That being said...buy the 1865 from your friend and sell it to me!!
J
siliconvalleycoins.com
Mint marked seated quarters are a big exception, and it's not even close to rare to find those pages littered with errors in a multitude of
grades. And it's not like the "expert" contributors to those pages don't know what the real prices are. And it's no secret the collectors would like those prices to stay low too until they complete sets!
What could be better than a price guide where only those in the know realized the price guide is full a baloney? Sort of like buying with the Blue Book.
I would suggest that another reason that the 1864 is priced under the 1865 is the mintage issue again (the 1864 is a "massive" 48,000 while the 1865 is only 13,000). While we just finished saying that mintage is often meaningless, the problem festers in price guides to this day.
roadrunner
I have taken the liberty of compiling the published prices for each of these dates of half dimes from several of the most popular and most often refered to pricing sheets and services. The following chart lists the price for MS-63 grade examples for each of the dates 1863 - 1869 (except Coin Prices, which does not list the MS-63 grade, so MS-60 was used for that service only).
--------------CDN--------------PCGS--------COIN WORLD---COIN PRICES
DATE---GREY SHEET----PRICE GUIDE-------TRENDS---------(MS-60)
1863------675.00-----------800.00-----------1500.00--------700.00
1864------925.00---------1225.00-----------2500.00-------1350.00
1865------885.00---------1150.00-----------1500.00-------1200.00
1866------800.00-----------975.00-----------1500.00------1250.00
1867-----1000.00---------1175.00-----------1500.00------1400.00
1868------625.00-----------815.00-----------1000.00--------570.00
1869------220.00-----------325.00------------800.00--------235.00
If we are generally in agreement, that the 1865 is the least available date of this group, as evidenced by several specialists' experience and by the Heritage Archives, it would appear that all of the pricing services need some adjustment. Most of the pricing services have the 1864 priced the highest of the group, which simply isn't supported by the availability figures. Interestingly, all of the pricing services seem to recognize the relative availability of the 1863, and have it priced accordingly. And the real sleeper of the group, as discussed by several here, and borne out in the Heritage Archives numbers, would be the 1869. At $200-$300, they would be a bargain if they could be found.
Now I'm going to throw a wrench into the analysis, and post some PCGS Pop. report figures for the same series of coins. These tell a little bit different story!
Date...................Total graded at PCGS.................Total in MS60+...............
1863................................133.......................................110...........................
1864................................54.........................................41...........................
1865................................59.........................................45...........................
1866................................60.........................................47...........................
1867................................72.........................................64...........................
1868................................57.........................................45...........................
1869................................91.........................................79...........................
Conclusions
1) The 1869-P is perhaps not a scarce as auction appearances would indicate. It is the lowest valued coin in the list, but the 2nd highest Pop. There is not a large financial incentive to submit these for certification, compared to some of the other dates on the list that are more valuable. Could someone be hoarding the 1869-P, keeping auction appearances way down?
2) The 1864-p, 1865-p, 1866-p, and 1868-p appear to be almost equally scarce. In fact, I would say that they are identical within statistical limitations. This conclusion is supported by auction record appearances. They also have similar populations in Unc. condition, which is really interesting. The 1864 is slightly scarcer in Unc., and with 7 pieces graded MS66, I think it suffers a little from resubmission.
3) The 1863 is again lagging far behind the pack in scarcity. However, I think that it's a Civil War date, and CW collectors very possibly go after these coins, driving the price up.
4) Consistent with auction appearances, the 1867-p is surprisingly the 2nd commonest with as many as 79 pieces graded BU! I still don't own one, but it's not as rare as we all thought 2 days ago.
Disclaimers.
1) It's a pop. report, and resubmissions are a factor we can never account for.
2) I didn't look at NGC's pop. report.
Okay, this has to be the top thread of the month, at the very least. Great information. It just reminds me of how much I don't know.