Do the contracts of Cubs managers require lobotomies?
RonBurgundy
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Just wondering because that was a brain dead move by Piniella last night, removing Zambrano after 85 pitches. You play to win the game you're playing, not for some future game down the road. Idiotic. I doubt there will even be a Game 4.
Kind of ironic that after Dusty Baker helped destroy the careers of Prior and Wood by leaving them in too long during the '03 postseason, the opposite occurs here. LOL.
Ron
Kind of ironic that after Dusty Baker helped destroy the careers of Prior and Wood by leaving them in too long during the '03 postseason, the opposite occurs here. LOL.
Ron
Ron Burgundy
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i don't think the scored
how do you not play for that run??
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Got to go with what Morgath said. Dammed if you do, dammed if you don't
"If I ever decided to do a book, I've already got the title-The Bases Were Loaded and So Was I"-Jim Fregosi
<< <i>that one you could maybe explain but how about not having zambrano bunt the guy to third with no outs????????
i don't think the scored
how do you not play for that run?? >>
I agree with you. They had to come out with a run that inning and they did not. The top the order for the Cubs were also a non factor offensively in the game. They need to score more runs to win. I still think they took Zamrano out too early. Play to win the game at hand and not worry about resting pictchers in game four.
Ah, the fun of analysis. At 4:50 p.m. yesterday, I went on ESPNews and argued that the Cubs’ bullpen was better than the Diamondbacks’ bullpen because the Cubs had Carlos Marmol and the Diamondbacks didn’t, and Carlos Marmol was an amazing pitcher. At 11:57 p.m., Marmol entered a tied game in the seventh, and at 11:59 p.m., the game was untied. Marmol put a fastbal lin the middle of the plate, and Mark Reynolds flat-out crushed it. Marmol would allow another run on a walk and a double, and take the loss in a 3-1 game.
Obviously, I’ll stand by my analysis. Marmol treated the NL this year like a hot girl treats a nerd, posting a 1.43 ERA with 96 strikeouts in 69 1/3 innings. He just made a bad pitch at the wrong time, and paid for it. He’s still the best reliever in this series, capable of going two innings without giving up any contact, much less any hits, and I expect him to be a key cog for the Cubs over the next few games.
Lou Piniella took some criticism for removing Carlos Zambrano, who was pitching well, after six innings to bring in Marmol. Piniella has designs on bringing Zambrano back for Game Four on Sunday, and wanted to avoid having his ace work too deep into last night’s game. Beating up Piniella for this is ridiculous. It’s results-based analysis. On a per-inning basis, Marmol pitched circles around Zambrano this season, and the difference between a fresh Marmol and a six-innings-in Zambrano is greater than their statistics indicate. By making the switch, Piniella was upgrading the pitcher on the mound and setting up the back of the series. That it didn’t work out is just one of those things, but the decision was not only defensible, it was optimal.
Piniella, frankly, had a great night, from starting Geovany Soto behind the plate to using Jacque Jones in the two hole to letting Zambrano swing away in the fifth. Soto is better than Jason Kendall at batting and throwing, and whatever game-management or defensive edges Kendall may have over the rookie, those edges don’t mean much compared to what Soto provides.
Letting Zambrano swing was one of those decisions that probably goes unnoticed. After Mark Reynolds’ throwing error gave the Cubs a runner on second and no one out, down a run, Zambrano stepped up. For probably 75 percent of the managers around baseball, this would be a bunting situation; get the tying run to third with less than two outs. Even a good hitter for a pitcher, like Zambrano, would normally be asked to lay one down.
In this case, however, swinging away was a terrific play. The Cubs were going to need at least two runs to win the game, making a one-run strategy limiting. Zambrano, a left-handed batter against the right-handed groundballer, was a better than good bet to hit a ground ball to the right side that would advance the runner anyway. If Zambrano found his way on base, the Cubs would have a rally underway with the top of their lineup up. Finally, the cost—the possible loss of a base if Zambrano didn’t advance the runner—would be tiny when measured against all of the benefit.
See, what never gets discussed is that the knee-jerk pitcher sacrifice isn’t a one-run strategy, and isn’t a positive attempt to generate a run. It’s a one-out strategy, designed to minimize the damage a pitcher can do at the plate. When a pitcher comes up with a runner on first and less than two outs, the reason he bunts is simple: to stay out of the double play. A typical pitcher will strike out often, and when he doesn’t, he’ll hit a weak ground ball somewhere. It’s the double-play threat that drives the reflexive bunting. This is, in fact, the correct approach to minimize the damage a pitcher will do.
In non-DP situations—runner on second, less than two out—pitchers should almost never bunt unless the runner at second is the tying run, the game is in the sixth or later, and the likelihood of a strikeout is high. Trading even a 20 percent chance of a baserunner for the benefit of moving up a runner from second to third is a bad trade-off. Better to let the pitcher swing away, risking a strikeout while potentially getting a baserunner, with the runner possibly advancing anyway on a weak grounder to first or second.
Piniella’s decision was made easier by having Zambrano at the plate, but it would have been sensible with Ted Lilly up there was well. It didn’t work out—Zambrano lined out to Stephen Drew at shortstop, and the Cubs went on to not score—but it was the right decision. As a manager, all you can do is keep making the right decisions. The rest is out of your control.
Brandon Webb was just terrific. Even the run he allowed in the sixth, one set up by two walks, happened because his stuff was just so nasty he couldn’t keep it in the strike zone. He pitched out of a couple of jams, once by striking out the top of the Cubs’ lineup in order, and allowed just four fly balls in his seven innings. The Cubs, a free-swinging, heavily right-handed bunch, are a good matchup for Webb, who eats righties alive and persists in working down and away. The surprise wasn’t that he won last night; the surprise was that he allowed a run in doing so.
Here’s hoping he gets another start. Even up 1-0 in the series, the Diamondbacks aren’t a great bet to stretch the series to five games, in part because Bob Melvin has set up his rotation oddly. Today, the D’backs will start Doug Davis, who’s the opposite of Webb in that he’s a command-challenged lefty without great stuff. If there’s a pitcher the Cubs are set up to crush, it’s the southpaw who goes 2-0 on half the batters he faces. Saturday, the Diamondbacks run Livan Hernandez to the mound. Hernandez has a big-game, high-quality reputation that belies his pedestrian stuff and unimpressive performance record—247 hits, 34 homers, 79 walks, and 90 strikeouts in 204 1/3 innings, and 85 runs allowed in his last 131 1/3 innings.
Meanwhile, Micah Owings isn’t scheduled to pitch until Game Four. Owings is much better than Hernandez, and no worse than the equal of Davis, and a better matchup than Davis against the Cubs. Holding him back until Game Four is inexplicable; if the Diamondbacks had lost last night, they’d be looking at exiting the Division Series in three games without ever having used their second-best starting pitcher. I understand that people within the game value experience highly, but when doing so causes you to slot Livan Hernandez ahead of Micah Owings, it’s time to re-evaluate your processes.
<< <i>Meanwhile, Micah Owings isn’t scheduled to pitch until Game Four. Owings is much better than Hernandez, and no worse than the equal of Davis, and a better matchup than Davis against the Cubs. Holding him back until Game Four is inexplicable; if the Diamondbacks had lost last night, they’d be looking at exiting the Division Series in three games without ever having used their second-best starting pitcher. I understand that people within the game value experience highly, but when doing so causes you to slot Livan Hernandez ahead of Micah Owings, it’s time to re-evaluate your processes. >>
Not to mention that Owings is the best hitter on the team. They need his bat in the lineup.
And to a manager who would insist on throwing guys out there because of "playoff experience," I have two words: Jeff Francis.
Someone explained it very well to me today: Piniella has basically handcuffed his team twice - once last night for not getting all he could out of Zambrano, and again on Sunday by bringing him back early when he'll probably be at 90% effectiveness max. In both cases, you don't maximize your best pitcher which is idiotic.
Ron
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He was either in a transe throughout the post-Bartman collapse, or he was too tired to get his ass off the bench to talk to his team.