This time it IS different…re: TJ Spouse

FloridaBill

I knew the limit of one per household would change the dynamic of the aftermarket. I just wasn’t sure how.

I acquired a few sets through friends and family. I paid the $50 bounty per coin I promised to each one, even though that put me at break-even at current after-market prices.

I also have been quietly active buying at $485-$525 on eBay.

This is the first time I have seen respected buyers (moderncoin, wondercoin, etc,) offering MORE than current eBay prices.

Some of you may remember when I posted that I and a buddy had bought 8% of the issue of the George Washington FDCC. We each bought 2,000…and it worked out ok.

This buddy developed a pretty good network to buy the TJ Spouse coins…

He is selling them all now at $550 per coin to a dealer.

My take is….There is a lot of “flippers” flooding the market…but there are a lot of smart buyers buying ALL the flippers will sell, and they are buying at above eBay prices…

Bottom Line….There is a limited downside (value of gold). There is a momentary glut of supply (small time flippers needing to pay off the credit card). Dealers are paying ABOVE eBay prices.

FloridaBill

Steve27

This is the key statement "small time flippers needing to pay off the credit card." After all the "small time flippers" leave the market, I expect the price to rise.

53BKid

I agree. It's surprising though how much of an impact the flippers have had on the TJ. I thought we'd see a lot of flipping, but this is remarkable.

fcloud

Think there are many buying these to re-flip later. They pay a small premium now, stock up on a bunch, the coins become harder to find, and the price goes up. Hold off selling until the supply falls short of demand.

53BKid

RedTiger

Are you buying on the bay to sell to the dealers, or holding for speculation? If you weren't buying in volume how much lower do you think the Ebay prices be?

What happens to the downside if the price of gold craters to $500 per ounce? Limited, well, I guess it is, because gold won't go to zero. Can't happen? No one knows for sure. Basing a downside on the current gold price is walking a tight rope.

Wondercoins buy prices on the Jeffs is still decent, however their buy on the first two coins has dropped to issue price (actually below issue price after shipping) for the first two coins. This is with the tailwind of a nice price increase in gold. It may be scary to think that tailwind may turn into a headwind.

mckaleta

honestly - who cant handle $800 on the credit card?

pf70collector

I agree these should be held long term. Unless they put the same design on another bullion or commemorative, I believe these will appreciate. JMHO.

RedTiger

<< <i>honestly - who cant handle $800 on the credit card? >>



Some flippers have a wide network and may have five times that or ten times that or even 20 times or more. That can run up to be a lot of money.

MajorDuty

I think it boils down to there is simply not that much interest in these. That conclusion surprises me because of the apparent interest in the first two issues, flipper driven or not, the prices were strong for a while there. The prices on the TJ may rise but I question how much they will rise. I also think there is little hope for them long term. If in fact interest is low now it will be even lower in the future, imo. My personal opinion is the highest prices will be realized next month and into December, after that, it's all down hill to about issue price.

Swampboy

<< <i>honestly - who cant handle $800 on the credit card? >>



So ask I!

Let's out the riff raff!!

wondercoin

FLABill - Good points. I believe the last pair of sealed Jeffs though sold on ebay (#330170229147) netted the seller around $480/coin (perhaps even as low as $470/coin if you deduct the featured auction fee?). So, paying more than sellers are netting on ebay is really not all that difficult - IMHO, ebay is really "dead" right now in the modern coin sector, especially on open bid auctions (which is why I am personally currently running -1- ebay auction -off my typical number of ebay auctions).

While I am not terribly excited about the direction I expect these Jeff coins to take in the next few months (and I do expect (hope) to be selling off the majority of my coins during that time period so I also have no interest in holding most of these coins for any time period), it is refreshing to know that gold melt forms a "base" level for the value of the coins - not every modern coin has a downside of just roughly 20%-25% with (in theory) unlimited possible upside.

Wondercoin

Overdate

I think interest will grow in a few years when the "Liberty" subset is complete.

57loaded

i don't think there is the broad interest in these.

you heavy hitters may be right in the long run...i am not bullish on gold though or this series

all that said....this is a beautiful coin in both proof and unc. my only wish was for more hair detail. i'm not fond of the reverse at all.

goldman86

Not bullish on the spouses I understand. But gold? Seems like a no brainer to me.

brendanlam

the observe and reverse of another spouse going to be same as JF spouse?

Overdate

the observe and reverse of another spouse going to be same as JF spouse?


No, they're all supposed to be different.

clackamas

One thing to consider is the value of selling outright (sealed) vs. sending in for grading. What I see for the prices Wondercoin, et. al. are paying is an arbitrage price. Where the risk of an MS69 graded price plus the upside potential of an MS70 = a price paid - a risk premium. Since the market was spread out, IMO, far fewer pieces go to the graders, and if they do, the coins do not have context, therefore, IMO, you will get fewer % MS70's - a higher risk for individuals. Which will increase the price of MS70's. I have a network as well, albeit small, but I would not settle for the market sealed rate and will send the coins in myself due to the fact I have context with multiple coins and other will not.