Using the pop reports as a primary tool for circ coin rarity

roadrunner

Pops are often meaningless on coins people just won't submit. In this case people WILL slab their 01-s, 96-s, 13-s quarters, but most won't bother sending in say a 97-s, 98-s, 04-0, 07-s, 09-0 if you get my drift. I guess once the counterfeiters start working on these, then there will be good reason to submit. I find that many of the better seated quarter S mints (1865 to 1872) are still not being submitted as there is no great reason to.....not yet at least. But certainly almost every slabbable 70-cc to 73-cc 25c is being sent in.

The 1909-0 barber 25c is one coin that is getting more and more attention due to low "pops." Considering that the 09-0 is available in Mint State and has been since the early 1980's, I'd rather spend a $1000-$1500 and get an UNC, than spend a little less to get a well circulated piece. Many of the uncs have since been hoarded due to the popularity of the circs. An interesting turn of events. Why leave the uncs out in the market to suggest that the date is more available. This is similar to the 1879-1890 25c's where uncs far outnumber their circulated brethren due to surviving hoards. And there's no secret that the uncs keep a cap on the price of the circs
(as do the Philly proofs to some extent as well).

I have an older pop report (2005), and it shows a 1907-s quarter as fairly comparable to the 1909-0 in overall coins submitted until you reach MS65. It's obvious no one is bothering to send in their G-XF
1907-s quarters. And no doubt a F-XF 1907-s 25c is an underrated date. I feel the same is true of most semi-key Barbers.

Using the pop reports as a primary tool at this grade level is not quite the whole story. Note that the 1867-s 25c has a lower pop
than the 1870-cc 25c, but no one is suggesting that the 67-s is of the same rarity level. While both are tuff coins, the 70-cc is much tougher...yet the pops (in 2005) indicated just the opposite.

With a mintage of 700,000+ and survival rates at maybe 0.5%, that still leaves several thousand 1909-0 25c's out there somewhere.
An 1867-s quarter with 48,000 minted and survival rates around 0.5% (probably slightly high imo), that leaves around 250 pieces left, 90% or more circulated (only 3 coins known in MS63 or better). But since the 1909-0 pop is far lower than the 67-s 25c it sure looks a lot rarer on paper! And I'm assuming the same survival rates which is sort of ludicrous considering all the things that happened to silver coins from 1867 to 1909. Some of the rare CC seated coins have survival rates of only around 0.1%....very few got out of Carson City alive.

roadrunner

seatedcollector

pop reports dont (and cant) take into account the coins submitted over and over, they are little more than a guide and should not be expected to reflect actual specimens

roadrunner

Just as there are resubmissions that cloud a coin's rarity, there are areas where resubmits are of no issue (yet). And in that case, it probably makes the coin look rarer than it is. Hence my example of the 1867-s 25c and to some extent the 1909-0. I doubt there have been ANY resubmits of circ examples of these 2 dates, and probably almost the same logic for the uncs. Up until 2005, I'd have bet that no 1867-s 25'c have been resubmitted to PCGS. Yet there are other dates where I'm sure multiple resubmits have occurred. But it is certainly possible to keep track if one is willing and has the time and resources. As far 2005-2007 I haven't paid much attention to changing pops. I do however get a kick out of something like the 1839 ND half where one MS63 coin was resubmitted a lot of times hoping for a 64. While that took a couple of years to get accomplished, the leftover 63's on the PCGS pop report will be there forever.

roadrunner