NonCents was right; I was wrong

Justhavingfun

Sometime back, a friend of mine had a 1919-S 10 centavo, of the US-Philippine persuasion for sale. He had a wanna-be customer for it, NonCents, and asked me what to charge for it. I thought it was a gorgeous coin and recommended $3,000.

That brought howls of rage from NonCents who thought it was a gross overcharge; maybe 4 or 5 times market value, if I remember correctly, which I may not.

Well, the market place talks. And recently a comparable coin, the 1912-S 10 centavo in MS66, PCGS, went up for auction on eBay. I call it comparable, because the pop report shows 8 gems for 1919-S and 8 gems for 1912-S. The 1912-S, however, is scarcer in 66: pop 1/0 while the 1919-S is pop 2/0 in 66.

Anyway, the 1912-S, the scarcer coin, sold for $2,200. So the 1919-S was, as NonCents indicated, overpriced at $3,000. Score one for the youth contingent.

Also of interest, a 1910-S 20 centavo, also of US Philippine persuasion, in MS 64, sold for $6,600. Now that price didn't surprise even though it was pop 2/0. The 20 centavos are generally speaking much harder to find in unc than the 10 centavos, and there are only 4 10-S twenties in unc, any grade.

Good work, NonCents. Keep it up; you're building a great collector.

Just Having Fun

coinpictures

I don't recall the particulars, nor do I wish to take sides, but don't be so hard on yourself -- 1 data point doth not a rule make.

Especially when selling a coin on eBay... in the summer... the coin might well have garnered more in a different week (or different phase of the moon for that matter).

newsman

The US-Philippine prices realized on eBay lately have varied quite a bit and some have been quite low.

USAROK

<< <i>The US-Philippine prices realized on eBay lately have varied quite a bit and some have been quite low. >>



And some have been quite high! Check out the prices realized on closed USPI lots sold by eBay seller valleycoin.

FilamCoins

You weren't "wrong" Mr Fun! It depends on the day, who's watching the auction, and who wants it bad enough!

Let's talk again in 3 years and see what the 19-S dime in 66 is going for!!

Looks like I'll be in FL in Jan. Wanna meet up at FUN??

crito

"We learn wisdom from failure much more than from success; we often discover what will do, by finding out what will not do; and probably he who never made a mistake never made a discovery." -- Samuel Smiles

NonCents

Mr. Justhavingfun,

Your statement

<< <i>That brought howls of rage from NonCents who thought it was a gross overcharge >>

is a bit overstated. There weren’t howls of rage but what I felt was constructive criticism with regards to pricing by a new USPI dealer. All I was trying to say is that there is no set price for USPI coins and that maybe some of your price quotes are set too high because you’re willing to pay what I believe to be over the top prices for these coins. I will agree with you that many of these coins are rare in their condition, but you can't compare USPI coins to other U.S. coins because that's like comparing apples and oranges. With regards to the site we talked about before, many prices seem pretty steep while others appear to be right on target. Call me crazy, but as a dealer don't you want to create turnover in order to make money? Shouldn't you base your prices on the competition and auction sites instead of what you believe to be the right prices? For example there is a 1928-M One Centavos PCGS MS66RD for sale on the site for $1000 which has a very prominent fingerprint on the reverse. The same date, mintmark and grade coin sold for a little over $300 on eBay not more than two months ago without a fingerprint. That's just one of many examples I can present. I don’t believe the collector base is as strong as you might think. We are very few compared to our light-side friends and those willing to pay strong prices for USPI coinage are even smaller (you could probably count them on one hand). As far as my set goes, thanks for the praise and I wish you well.

Regards,

NonCents

PS – Judging by the write-up on the previously mentioned coin site, these are your words “The 1941-M five centavo is the hardest of the regular issues in the commonwealth five centavo series. It's almost impossible to find in unc and in gem -- if I can get my hands on one -- it will be the first $10,000 commonwealth coin.” I’m pretty sure you know that it went for a little over $3000 and that your ideal worth of this coin was overshot.

coinkat

It really is not about being right or wrong here... coins will always be worth what folks are willing to pay for them given the opportunity

FilamCoins

Do you think this guy is a little ambitious?

Link

NonCents

Filamcoins,

Ambitious? I would have to say more like crazy! I could see it going for somewhere in the $400 range though. As a matter of fact, I tried to contact the seller once to tell him that he was way off and I even offered to sell him my MS66 for what he was charging for that 65. I never got an answer back though. I wonder why?

Doogy

<< <i>Filamcoins,

Ambitious? I would have to say more like crazy! I could see it going for somewhere in the $400 range though. As a matter of fact, I tried to contact the seller once to tell him that he was way off and I even offered to sell him my MS66 for what he was charging for that 65. I never got an answer back though. I wonder why? >>




the seller is a frequent poster on the US forum. His auctions are generally grossly overpriced, and i think he just trolls for suckers thay may bite. I can't imagine if he landed a victim they would be too happy when they found out the real market value of many of them.

Justhavingfun

Thank you, Coin Pictures. Yes, that's exactly right, "1 data point doth not a rule make."

That rule gave me a chuckle. It brought me back to my school days at MIT. I can almost hear my Chemistry Prof saying that all over again.
And actually, while the 12-S brought significantly less ($800 less) than the 1919-S, the sale prices were comparable ($2,200 vs. $3,000), and of the same order of magnitude.

---

" The US-Philippine prices realized on eBay lately have varied quite a bit and some have been quite low."

Hello Newsman. Welcome back. Yes, deliciously low. I was able to pick up two upgrades to my US-Philippines at low-ball prices. I also made deliberately low-ball bids on two other nice duplicates, and to my amazement, picked them both up, at prices close to, but under my low-ball bids. Yum.



Warm regards,


Just Having Fun

FilamCoins

Link



Huh?

Justhavingfun

Dear USROK: Well, yes, I saw the prices. My sense was that they were erratic. I saw middle-of-the-road gunk going for two or three times their value. And I saw pop 1 gems going for half what they should have gone. Go figure?

Just Having Fun

Justhavingfun

"You weren't 'wrong' Mr Fun! Let's talk again in 3 years and see what the 19-S dime in 66 is going for!!"

Great to hear from you, Mr. Filam:

Yes; you're right. I'm sure, that three years from now, the 1919-S will be deep into happy land. Indeed, I just bought another gorgeous 1919-S, 10 centavo, by private treaty, from another dealer for upwards of $3k.

But where do you ever find creeps like that guy trying to sell 1904 20 centavo, for $4,995? That guy calls it "very rare"! Very rare?

Sheeesh, it's the most common of all the 20 centavos in gem. PCGS, for instance, graded 7 in MS65, 11 in MS66, and 4 in MS67. And he calls it "very rare" in one place and "extremely rare" in another. Sleeeeeaze!

It looks like a nice coin. I'd bid up to $300 for it.

The 1944 centavo is a beaut. Great eye appeal. I can see shelling out $144 for it, which is where the bidding is now.

And sorry, but FUN is not a possibility for me. I'm getting to the point where these long flights across the Pacific are becoming harder and harder for me. Just getting too effing old.


Warm regards,



Just Having Fun

Justhavingfun

Dear NonCents:

Thanks for your thoughtful comments, both general and specific. I'll forward your comments about the 1928-M Centavo to Tainohenka. From what you said, it sounds like he made a mistake on that one. He's a conscientious person and when he makes a mistake, he likes to correct it.

But the key to this thread is not the occasional errors that Tainohenka, you,or I make, but rather your statement: "Call me crazy, but as a dealer don't you want to create turnover in order to make money?"

My experience is not in retail, but it seems to me that the key to running a successful coin business is replacement value. For example: let's say ... you buy a coin for $500, and sell a year later for $1,000. You have a $500 (100%) profit. Sounds great.

But what if you can't replace the coin for your inventory, for $500, $750, or even $1,000? What if your replacement cost is going to be $1,500? Do you still think the coin dealer made a wise sale decision?

I don't.

I think that so long as a dealer consistently sells below his cost to replace the coin, he doesn't have a retail business. He's liquidating inventory. Which is not bad, but it's not a business. It's simply bringing an asset to cash.

You thought the 1919-S should have sold for $500. Could the owner have replaced the coin for $400 or $500? Not a prayer, unless he gets very lucky, as in a 1919-S in MS66 10 centavo coming up for auction while other collectors and dealers are asleep at the switch.

Indeed, as you saw, an essentially equivalent 10 centavo in MS66 (the '12-S) sold for $2,200. That's $1,700 (340%) more than the $500 price you suggested for the 1919-S. So the $500 suggested is far below Tainohenka's replacement cost. But the $3,000 price I had suggested was about 35% above replacement cost. Which is not an unreasonable spot to be. Probably right on the button for most dealers.

Finally, regarding the 1941-M 5 centavo, of which I said: "I think it will be the first $10,000 commonwealth coin." I'm sorry I wasn't clearer. I never thought it was a $10,000 coin now. One was offered to me in the low 5 figures, and I laughed. The operative words are "WILL BE", i.e., I think it will be a $10,000 coin in the future. The coin went for about $2,000 and change, if I remember correctly, about what I thought it would.

Warm regards,


Just Having Fun -- and lots of it!

NonCents

<< <i>Dear NonCents:

Thanks for your thoughtful comments, both general and specific. I'll forward your comments about the 1928-M Centavo to Tainohenka. From what you said, it sounds like he made a mistake on that one. He's a conscientious person and when he makes a mistake, he likes to correct it.

But the key to this thread is not the occasional errors that Tainohenka, you,or I make, but rather your statement: "Call me crazy, but as a dealer don't you want to create turnover in order to make money?"

My experience is not in retail, but it seems to me that the key to running a successful coin business is replacement value. For example: let's say ... you buy a coin for $500, and sell a year later for $1,000. You have a $500 (100%) profit. Sounds great.

But what if you can't replace the coin for your inventory, for $500, $750, or even $1,000? What if your replacement cost is going to be $1,500? Do you still think the coin dealer made a wise sale decision?

I don't.

I think that so long as a dealer consistently sells below his cost to replace the coin, he doesn't have a retail business. He's liquidating inventory. Which is not bad, but it's not a business. It's simply bringing an asset to cash.

You thought the 1919-S should have sold for $500. Could the owner have replaced the coin for $400 or $500? Not a prayer, unless he gets very lucky, as in a 1919-S in MS66 10 centavo coming up for auction while other collectors and dealers are asleep at the switch.

Indeed, as you saw, an essentially equivalent 10 centavo in MS66 (the '12-S) sold for $2,200. That's $1,700 (340%) more than the $500 price you suggested for the 1919-S. So the $500 suggested is far below Tainohenka's replacement cost. But the $3,000 price I had suggested was about 35% above replacement cost. Which is not an unreasonable spot to be. Probably right on the button for most dealers.

Finally, regarding the 1941-M 5 centavo, of which I said: "I think it will be the first $10,000 commonwealth coin." I'm sorry I wasn't clearer. I never thought it was a $10,000 coin now. One was offered to me in the low 5 figures, and I laughed. The operative words are "WILL BE", i.e., I think it will be a $10,000 coin in the future. The coin went for about $2,000 and change, if I remember correctly, about what I thought it would.

Warm regards,


Just Having Fun -- and lots of it! >>




Mr. Justhavingfun,

$500? I don't know where you got that number from. As I recall, I said a 1903 MS66 10 Centavos with a pop of 1/0 in both NGC and PCGS at the time sold for a little over $600 and that the 1919-S with a pop of 3/0 for $3000 was overpriced in my opinion. I never stated how much that coin should have sold for. As far as the $10,000 for the 1941-M 5 Centavos, I just copied and pasted from the write-up you provided. I wonder if that person who contacted you out of the blue saw our previous thread and decided to cash in when he/she saw how much money you were willing to pay for that 1919-S 10 Centavos you got from Tainohenka.

BTW, as far as these forums go, I think I've had enough. I wish you all well.

NonCents

FilamCoins

<< <i>BTW, as far as these forums go, I think I've had enough. I wish you all well. NonCents >>



Huh?