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Is it time for a new 2006w Platinum Unc. thread?
kimon1230
Posts: 747 ✭✭
It's been over 6 months and the prices seem to have dropped a bit.
What is the general opinion of the wise and learned member of this forum about the availability and pricing in the short/mid and long term, now that more is known about the coin and the series?
What is the general opinion of the wise and learned member of this forum about the availability and pricing in the short/mid and long term, now that more is known about the coin and the series?
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Being neither wise nor learned, I have to think that the future of these coins in the short term depends on the Mint's official mintages, which still seem far from certain. At 2600 coins, for instance, the 1/2-oz's future seemed assured. At 3,600 or 3,800? Maybe not so much. I'd probably buy a few if I didn't have to save my money for the putative reverse-proof anniversary set. At the same time, I'm hoping the '07 mintages go through the roof to help establish a baseline (and prevent me from having to buy them at the moment).
1) The 2006-w mint state plats even at the "high" rumor numbers of about 3600 halves and quarters are the rarest design and denomination mint state coinage issued for sale to the US public since 1915. No contest.
2) The sales for 2007-w MS plats are doing much better than last year two weeks into the program. Current numbers after 2 weeks are 1403, 1301, 1464, 3238 respectively. That’s a long way from 401, 396, 436 and 1151 respectively after two weeks in 2006. Now the uncs are selling about .63 times the proofs sales for 07 for the $100, half and quarter which is typical ratio going back 20 years. In other words the uncs are going to be more than likely rarer coins than the proofs but not anything like what the 2006-w was.
3) A large percentage of the current new entrants into the coin market are flippers. They will buy and dump a coin regardless of its long term potential because they are not buying serious coins to give to the grand kids. If you flip new issues for a 50+ percent mark up twice a year every year that’s more than doubling every twelve months. No single coin can compete with that as long as the flippers don't drive up sales artifically to the point aftermarket prices crash too soon after sell out on high mintage issues (this may happen at some point). The flippers have moved on to 20,000 issue first hags and have done well with them in the short run. Money chasing new issues takes heat off the slightly older ones.
4) Another issue that is frequently overlooked is the time it takes for the issues placed into the market by the mint to dissolve into collections or "strong hands" that don't need to sell or want to sell. This process of dealer and flipper inventory dilution takes at least 3 years in most cases and really starts to get tight by the tenth year. Some refer to this as the "magic tenth year".
5) It would not surprise me to see the 2006-w MS plats to stay flat for 2-4 years but that flat spot could dramatically shortened if the 2007-w MS plats sell really well making the 2006-w a massive mintage anomaly or a strong market maker comes in an decides to buy 2000+ halves or quarter and drive the price nuts like the MS Jackie and Unc BiMetalic have been.
6) There is a certain fraction of those that start as strictly investors that evolve into collectors. I was an investor 20 years ago. Now I am both but most of us figure out sooner or later that the best stuff to be in is the good looking high material content coins that are rare and completable.
7) Another issue of long-term collectablity is design based collecting. We all were more or less forced to collect by date and mint mark. But now its easy to collect not just by year but also design. Whether mint marks will remain the dominant form of product differentiation is anyone’s guess but in the mean time its good policy to have both date and mint mark rarity coupled with the absence of a certain design in terms of total population in your collection. Plus it’s more interesting.
8) In the out years when this tiny issue of congressional platinum eagles have found long term homes the coins will be tough.
You started by asking what the short and long term for the 2006-w are. I leave you with two of Warren Buffet's favorite quotes:
"In the short term the market is a voting machine (that’s fickle and hard to predict), in the long term the market is a weighing machine that values assets accurately". "Time is the friend of the outstanding asset the enemy of the mediocre".
The coins by any objective measure are outstandingly scarce and time will measure their weight and the flippers will not matter any more.
Thanks for your insights.
In your opinion, would one be wise to use this time of "consolidation" (to use a stock market term) to sell the 69s and trade into the 70s (given the low delta)?
FloridaBill
First Strike 70's
Regular 70's
First Strike 69's
Regular 69's
Selected raw coins
Raw coins bought on price alone, so presumably inferior grades
==Looking for pre WW2 Commems in PCGS Rattler holders, 1851-O Three Cent Silvers in all grades
Successful, problem free and pleasant transactions with: illini420, coinguy1, weather11am,wayneherndon,wondercoin,Topdollarpaid,Julian, bishdigg,seateddime, peicesofme,ajia,CoinRaritiesOnline,savoyspecial,Boom, TorinoCobra71, ModernCoinMart, WTCG, slinc, Patches, Gerard, pocketpiececommems, BigJohnD, RickMilauskas, mirabella, Smittys, LeeG, TomB, DeusExMachina, tydye
Box of 20
1.) Selected raw 2006 W Unc Platinum coins Bought Sight Seen ( inspected first) or NGC Graded Browns - can be true Bargins!
2.) PCGS Blue Label (Plain) MS70's - 2nd Lowest POP -IS best for the Labeled money as it can be turned into a 10th Anniversary MS70
3.) PCGS 10th Anniversary MS70's - Lowest Label POP
4.) PCGS First Strike MS70's - Highest Label Pop
5.) PCGS Blue Label (Plain) MS69's - 2nd Lowest POP
6.) POP PCGS 10th Anniversary MS69's - Lowest Label POP
7.) PCGS First Strike MS69's - Highest Pop
UNKOWN - Raw coins bought on price alone, so presumably inferior grades (Ebay) - Depends on Seller
Not my words, not my blog.
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# joel iskowitz Says:
July 18th, 2007 at 7:01 am
Adam Hi,
I am one of the unfortunate ones who didn’t purchase enough of the 2006 Platinum Proof Eagle (”Legislative Muse”). I was only able to get the 1/10 oz. size at the time.This hurts especially since I see that the 2006 series price has tripled since. Also vexsome is that the reverse it’s my design. Also, I also wonder why,if one goes to the Historic Image Library at the Mint’s site, that 2006 is the only one in the series that doesn’t show up.It jumps from 2005 to 2007.
In any event I enjoy your site and enthusiasm about all the numismatic events that unfold.
Best,
Joel
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I beg to differ Eric, indeed you are both. We are all very fortunate to benefit from your knowledge and insight.
Many thanks.
There is no bargain out there right now like those 2006 W Platinum Eagles!
I posted these thoughts on an earlier thread, but think they are also appropriate here.
I think one challenge to collecting platinum is the high bullion cost that is "baked in" to the series. This may be a reason why even the scarce dates are not more popular.
Each $100 platinum coin, from the commonest to the rarest, has a current metal value of nearly $1,300. There are currently 22 date/mintmark/finish combinations of Platinum Eagles in uncirculated and proof. The bullion value of 22 one-ounce coins is over $28,000. The bullion value for 22 complete sets of 4 is over $50,000. This doesn't count the premiums for the scarcer dates.
To spend this kind of money, a collector not only has to forgo the purchase of significant coins in other series, he or she also has to assume the risk of volatility in the price of platinum, since the prices of most platinum coins are strongly tied to the platinum bullion price.
Over the long run, I expect that bullion cost and bullion risk factors will encourage many collectors to limit their platinum coins or sets to the small fractionals, or even bypass the series entirely.
I do expect the really low-mintage dates to do well, but affordability and scarcity will both be factors affecting future demand.
My opinion only.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Wow, I really never looked at it that way.
22 sets x 1.85 Ozs. per set = 40.70 Ozs. = 2.54 lbs. of 99.99% Platinum = $1,284.00/Ozs. = $52,258.80
Eric
Most of us are going to pick a denomination in proof or Unc or both and run with it.
Lets take a look at the midle of the road $25 quarter plats, a complete type set of everything
1997 proof eagle over the sun
1997 Reverse proof eagle over the sun (example coin from 97-0x)
2005 Matt Unc eagle over the sun (example coin from 0x-07) could be off a year
1998 proof New England
1999 proof Swamp
2000 proof heart land
2001 proof desert
2002 proof fishing
2003 proof patriotic V.
2004 proof America Seated
2005 proof plenty
2006 proof legislative
2006-w unc legislative
2007 proof presidential
2007-w unc presidential
Thats fifteen coins in total and you can buy them in 69 for less than $9000. Vastly cheaper than just a 1911-d $2.5 MS-60 indian, or a $5 modern commen unc gold set thats on average not as rare. The plats are very cheap for what they are compared to almost all classic or modern gold sets.
Most of us are going to pick a denomination in proof or Unc or both and run with it.
I agree, and for those of us on limited coin budgets the denomination of choice will likely be the $10 tenth-ounce or the $25 quarter-ounce. If these turn out to be the most popular sizes, I would expect them to show better long-term appreciation than the larger denominations.
For collecting purposes, I think the $25 platinum is probably the best compromise in regard to size, price and scarcity. The $10 is too small to show the elaborate designs to best advantage, while the $50 and $100 are too costly for most collectors and have too much of their price tied up in bullion.
My opinion only.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Is the 2007-W the only Unc Platinum to be released this year? Or is there a 2007-P planned? >>
If 2007-P is the bullion version, yes the Mint has already released it.
But if 2007-P is the reverse proof, no news from the Mint regarding its release yet. Or whether it will be made this year.
Here is the order page for the 2007-W. Link
How can I order a 2007-P, or are those only sold to dealers?
Regardless, I was referring to APEs with no mint mark which I had assumed was P.
Well, just Love coins, period.
Eric
<< <i>I collect the $10 Plat unc's.
How can I order a 2007-P, or are those only sold to dealers? >>
2007 no mint mark Platinum coins are sold to dealers. You can search on Ebay to see if one is up for bidding.
Well, just Love coins, period.
I am with Ericsan in wodering about this "matte" '02 plat. It sound as though some of the polishing may have been left off of the die...Have not seen this one and am curious though.
Possibly the reference is to a change in the look of the bullion (no mint mark) Platinum Eagles around 2004. If I recall correctly, earlier ones had what resembled proof surfaces in certain areas of the coin, later ones did not.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
part one of a Trilogy ?
Eric, There is a rumor that has come out saying the 2006-w plat mintages were higher than weeky sales reports indicated. I don't trust this.
<< <i>Florida, Its my view that the changing verse plats in PCGS MS-70 are very good buys if they trade in the 1.25 times 69 price range. They are worth considering up to 1.5 time 69 in my view but not worth getting excited about.
Eric, There is a rumor that has come out saying the 2006-w plat mintages were higher than weeky sales reports indicated. I don't trust this. >>
Eric96,
Do you have any more info on where the final sales results were??... the rumor of higher mintages came from a thread that I saw awile back that someone had seen an arcticle in Coin World if i'm not mistaken. I'm sure that is part of the reason the prices have been dropping recently along with it being summer.