2007 Defensive Statistics-Jeter Fans Need Not Look

markj111

From ACTA Sports-

Used with permission from John Dewan's Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com."


Who are the 2007 defensive All-Stars (thus far)?

July 18, 2007

In The Fielding Bible I introduced a new way to quantify defensive contributions called the Plus/Minus System. The book covered every 2005 defensive player other than pitchers and catchers using Plus/Minus and a variety of other defensive metrics.

The Bill James Handbook 2007 published the Plus/Minus leaderboards for the 2006 season (adding pitchers for the first time) and the 2008 version will publish the Plus/Minus leaderboards for the 2007 season. But how about a preview now?

The recent All-Star Game tried to bring together 2007’s best players. Let's take a look at the best players from a defensive standpoint thus far this year. Here are the 2007 Plus/Minus defensive leaderboards (through games of Monday, July 16).




First Basemen

Name Team PM
Albert Pujols StL +25
Casey Kotchman LAA +13
Ryan Klesko SF +10
Kevin Youkilis Bos +8
Ryan Shealy KC +8



Second Basemen

Name Team PM
Chase Utley Phi +16
Aaron Hill Tor +13
Mark Ellis Oak +12
Howie Kendrick LAA +10
Brandon Phillips Cin +8
Kaz Matsui Col +8



Third Basemen

Name Team PM
Pedro Feliz SF +21
David Wright NYM +15
Scott Rolen StL +13
Aramis Ramirez ChC +13
Adrian Beltre Sea +12



Shortstops

Name Team PM
Troy Tulowitzki Col +22
Adam Everett Hou +17
Jack Wilson Pit +12
Omar Vizquel SF +12
Jason Bartlett Min +12



Left Fielders

Name Team PM
Shannon Stewart Oak +11
Matt Holliday Col +10
Geoff Jenkins Mil +9
Adam Lind Tor +8
Emil Brown KC +8



Center Fielders

Name Team PM
Andruw Jones AtL +22
Carlos Beltran NYM +16
Curtis Granderson Det +14
Coco Crisp Bos +13
Alfredo Amezaga Fla +8
Ryan Church Was +8



Right Fielders

Name Team PM
Andre Ethier LAD +16
Carlos Quentin Ari +10
Austin Kearns Was +9
Alex Rios Tor +8
Magglio Ordonez Det +7
Corey Hart Mil +7



Pitchers

Name Team PM
Greg Maddux SD +5
Jon Garland ChW +5
Kameron Loe Tex +5
Five Tied With +4


The worst defensive player thus far this year: Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez at -23. Derek Jeter is a close second at -21.

By the way, I've been asked the same question many times: When will the next edition of The Fielding Bible come out? Answer: Not this year, but likely next year. The reason: We're working on a new book that will take time away from doing a Fielding Bible this year. The new book is called The Bill James Gold Mine. Keep an eye out for it next spring.

Short description of the Plus/Minus System:

The Fielding Bible contains a detailed explanation of the Plus/Minus System, but here is a summary.

The plus/minus figure of +25 for Albert Pujols means that he made 25 more plays than could be expected from an average first baseman. This +25 is determined by looking at each play hit in his direction and comparing what Pujols does with that play compared to all other first basemen.

Every time a fielder catches a ball and gets the out, he receives a fraction between 1 and 0. If it was a difficult play, he gets a larger fraction. An easy play, a smaller fraction. That fraction is determined by what percentage of times that same play is made by all players at that position, in the same location of the field, and on a ball hit just as hard. The higher the percentage (easier play), the lower the fractional award for the defensive play. The lower the percentage (harder play), the higher the factional award.

Every time a fielder fails to make the play, he gets a negative version of that same fraction.

We add up all these fractions and round the number to an integer to create their Plus/Minus at that position (some guys play multiple positions in one season). A final Plus/Minus number around zero indicates an average performance.

ctsoxfan

<< <i>The worst defensive player thus far this year: Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez at -23. Derek Jeter is a close second at -21. >>



I don't think Derek Jeter fans (and the people that give out Gold Gloves, apparently) care much about statistics.

But I liked the article, thanks!

fandango

Great post, defense is a very underrated aspect of the game....

one reason Ortiz falls a bit short of the Hall, no matter how many HR's he accumulates at this point...

stitzen

If Ortiz gets to 500 HRs, he'll be a hall of famer. People don't look at dominating batters and say 'damn, he was good just he didn't play defense'.

markj111

Ortiz was released by the Twins after the 2002 season. BTW-I had forgotten that he was originally signed by the Mariners.

My question: Who was the best player who was released early in his career? I do not know the answer, but I would guess that it is a pitcher.

Morgoth

Say hello to Jose Canseco to me in your HOF standards.

Jamericon

Sounds to me like there is too much uncertainty and subjectivity in this plus/minus rating system.

What about range, speed, throwing arm, and accuracy? These are individual characteristics that cannot be quantified as a group. A 2B may get more negs simply because his range is not a large as someone who might always make the play.

markj111

Isn't limited range a negative? The system is not perfect, but these guys put a lot of thought into it. It's a lot better than saying someone is a great player because he hustles. Either you made the play or you did not. Jeter goes all out, but he has limited range-especially on ground balls. I played all out, but I was terrible. Rose hustled his entire career, but for the last several years he was terrible. It is not about effort, it's about results.

Skinpinch

For some info, on my trips up to the press box, you see these guys with their computers and they track every ball, and where it is hit etc... The imperfect part is judging hardness and difficulty of the play. That is a subjective element to it. Though, I would think those would even out, and have an overall minor effect.

It is sooo much better than saying, "he looks like a good SS." Every major league SS 'looks' good.

I am not positive if they are counting all the scoops or stretches by the first baseman though.

It is an nice system. Instead of relying on perception and memory of how many balls a guy gets, it is actually kept track of. Often, simple tabulation of events is the best method...much like situational batter runs for hittters. Though, there really is no subjective element in the batting aspect.

The bad part? It doesn't help historically with players from years past. Though I am sure this system could be measured with other fielding systems and see how well they jive. If they jive well, they could lend more validity to other used systems.

dallasactuary

This system sounds like it might be better than some I've seen, but the short description raises more questions than it answers; a big one, as already mentioned, is which plays are "hard" and how much more do they count. I'd also like to know if it solves the "Buckner problem" by giving exactly the same points for touching the bag or making the short toss to the pitcher at first base (if it doesn't, the first base rankings can safely be ignored).

But the biggest question is does it adjust for how many fly balls vs. grounders the pitching staffs are allowing. Any system that just totes up pluses and minuses will always show that outfielders with fly ball staffs are great, and infielders with ground ball staffs are great. And vice versa. And if you have a pitching staff that strikes everybody out, then everybody in the outfield and infield looks terrible. Again, if there is no adjustment for this then the entire system can safely be ignored.

And before anybody points out some specific player who appears to be ranked correctly - I agree, some players will get ranked correctly. My point is that any system that only assigns plus this and minus that to the actual plays, without adjusting for the number of expected plays, will produce random results: some right, some wrong, and no way to tell which is which.

softparade

Derek Jeter is a better all around ball player then any of the shortstops listed. Period.

Jerry, I understand your need to offer validation. All you have to do is read down the list at each position and then laugh your a$$ off.

Next horsecrap stat? Who's got it?

ctsoxfan

Dan, you knew I wasn't going to let a good Jeter bashing opportunity pass me by without comment.

softparade

<< <i>Dan, you knew I wasn't going to let a good Jeter bashing opportunity pass me by without comment. >>





Why does someone not come up with the better areas to grow crops if the sun shed its light on just one half of the Earth?

Skinpinch

Dallas,

While reading that short description again, it doesn't sound like it accounts for fly ball vs. ground ball pitchers. It seems that as long as a player makes the play above average times, he will gain points on the defensive end. It doesn't seem to differentiate that Pujols may have gotten 100 more 'attempts' than another 1B.

From what that brief description says, I too may not put any more stock into that system than any other one. But I can't see those guys going through all that work and not accounting for something so easy(easy because they have the data). But I don't know.

softparade

I might add .... the very fact that the author of this thread felt compelled to name Derek Jeter in the title of the thread speaks volumes. I would'nt want ANY of those shortstops listed on the Yankees over Derek Jeter. I don't care if their gloves are 30 feet wide and can touch 1st base with 70 foot long arms from deep in the hole. They are NOT better BALLPLAYERS then Derek Jeter.

stitzen

<< <i>Derek Jeter is a better all around ball player then any of the shortstops listed. Period. >>



But this list isn't about all around ballplayer, it's specifically about defensive value. And 'horsecrap' stat? An objective measurement of a player's defensive worth is 'horsecrap'. Interesting. I have little doubt that if Jeter's name was atop this listing we'd be listening to how this listing justifies Jeter's gold glove wins.

kadokakid

Jeter is overrated defensively, always has been. Average arm, average range, makes the plays he gets to.

I can think of 2 or 3 shortstops I'd rather have on my team. Not saying he isn't a good baseball player, just way overhyped.

Winning seems to do that, but he didn't win all those rings by himself.

Just my 2 cents, and I'm a Yankee fan.

Peace

stown

So these are for 2006, not '07 as the title suggests.



<< <i>The Bill James Handbook 2007 published the Plus/Minus leaderboards for the 2006 season (adding pitchers for the first time) and the 2008 version will publish the Plus/Minus leaderboards for the 2007 season. But how about a preview now? >>



Reason I say that is because there's no way Everett is the 2nd best fielding SS THIS year. Already missed close to a month and had more errors this season than last.

stitzen

<< <i>So these are for 2006, not '07 as the title suggests. >>



Even better to prove a point...he won a gold glove with this effort!

softparade

<< <i>Jeter is overrated defensively, always has been. Average arm, average range, makes the plays he gets to.

I can think of 2 or 3 shortstops I'd rather have on my team. Not saying he isn't a good baseball player, just way overhyped.

Winning seems to do that, but he didn't win all those rings by himself.

Just my 2 cents, and I'm a Yankee fan.

Peace >>



Fair enough

Let me leave it with this. Derek Jeter is a base hit MACHINE. Well on his way to blow the doors off 3,000 hits. His defense, while not stats wise ranked at the top is far from horrible. He is a TOP NOTCH base runner. He is a GREAT ballplayer.

F1ferrari

OK, although this system uses a 'measurable' stat (albeit a quantative one, based on the objective viewpoint of the one recording the difficulty of the play), how would it account for someone who was/is a student of the game? Case in point- Cal Ripken.

Ripken was never considered a playmaker at shortstop, in fact, he only won 2 gold gloves in his career, however a lifetime fielding average of .977 at two of the 3 hardest defensive positions in baseball (catcher is the worst, then probably SS and 3B) isn't a shabby record. The thing is Cal would have looked horrible on this list because he studied his pitchers and the opponent's hitters to have a feel for where they were putting the ball in play. If he missed the 'big one' because he was out of place or a lucky angle off the bat, that would add a bigger negative than 2 or 3 successful 'average' plays where Cal put himself in the best position to make an 'easy' out based on this system.

Fielding will always be a more subjective statistic than hitting or pitching. I've seen hits that should have been errors, and errors that should have been hits. As long as a play has to be 'judged' rather than just 'measured', it's educated guesswork at best.

That's just my opinion, though.

Connecticoin

It is a crying shame Wily Mo does not get more playing time -- he would be runway leader for worst defensive outfielder!

Ichiro51fan

Yeah... while I am a big stat freak, I still find that defense is almost impossible to guage by any stat. The closest would be straight up fielding percentage, but even that has a shortfall in that someone with limited range would have a lot of balls not charges as errors that end up as basehits, while those hits would be outs with someone with a better range (higher RF). Range Factor itself is pretty decent, although fielders (especially OFers) can have lower RF than they should if they are on, for instance, a team with a staff that gets above average K's and ground ball outs. However, I do think that RF tends to capture some of those "spectatular plays". The other stat you can look at is assists (for OFers). To me, the combination of Fielding %, Range Factor, and Assists, is about as good of measure of fielding ability is you're going to get.

This list is interesting, but when you look at the list of CFers and don't see Ichiro there, how can you really take it seriously. I think even the Ichiro-haters out there would have to admit that the guy is no worse than top 3 CFers defensively in MLB, right? And he's not even in the top 6 of this list?!?!

Look at the stats:
Fileding % = 1.000 - no errors in 790 innings and 266 total chances
Range Factor = 3.03 - dropped somewhat lately but still among the best (if not the best) in MLB
Assists = 5 - again, gotta be among the top for CFers

The main problem I see with this "subjective" rating system is this. How do you objectively assign this value to a given play while every fielder's abilities are different. Take this scenario for example... a liner to right-center, going for a gapper, but Ichiro gets a great jump on the ball and with his great speed makes a great running catch. Take that same shot with say... Beltran in CF. He gets less of a good jump and has less speed than Ichiro. He makes the catch but has to dive to do it. So the way I understand it, Beltran would get more points for his catch than Ichiro, even though it was technically the same difficulty of play? Just doesn't work for me... sorry.