This seems ridiculous, but A Rod has an outside shot at 1,000 HR

frankhardy · July 9, 2007 9:00PM

I know this seems unbelieveable, but (correct me if I'm wrong) Baseball Tonight last night said that if A Rod hits as many HR as Hank Aaron did AFTER THE AGE OF 28 (that is the key), he will end up with 996 HR. That means A Rod has hit a ton of HR before the age of 29. I think they said that Aaron only hit 200+ before that age with 500+ coming after. A Rod will get to 500 already this year.

To me, that makes him even more of a lock for breaking the career HR record, if he can stay healthy. If he starts to break down, that will be a different story.

I just thought that was an interesting tid bit.

kcballboy · July 9, 2007 9:46PM

<< I know this seems unbelieveable, but (correct me if I'm wrong) Baseball Tonight last night said that if A Rod hits as many HR as Hank Aaron did AFTER THE AGE OF 28 (that is the key), he will end up with 996 HR. That means A Rod has hit a ton of HR before the age of 29. I think they said that Aaron only hit 200+ before that age with 500+ coming after. A Rod will get to 500 already this year.

To me, that makes him even more of a lock for breaking the career HR record, if he can stay healthy. If he starts to break down, that will be a different story.

I just thought that was an interesting tid bit. >>

For A-Rod, health is the key. He doesn't have a history of injuries, but this is about the time in his career that Griffey went through his injuries after being a lock. If he stays healthy, he has no reason not to shatter the record. Especially considering the contract he's about to land in a few months.

Estil · July 10, 2007 12:03AM

Wow, I just looked A-Rod up on Wikipedia and he's got a shot at clinching the HOF (500 taters) before he turns 32 this July 27. Now that is amazing.

BobaFett72 · July 10, 2007 12:19AM

yeah, 1000 is ridiculous.
Health, longevity, all a key. His desire to play, his social life with hookers and dancers...how could he possibly keep up

stitzen · July 10, 2007 1:37AM

It truly is an amazing run he's on...I don't think he's been on the DL since 2000. A product of his devotion to playing the game he loves.

I think, barring injury, that he'll climb to 900 HRs without trouble.

mikeschmidt · July 11, 2007 3:25AM

at a certain level -- A-Rod might not want to play any longer.

I mean, if he gets to 800 HRs, has a billion dollars in the bank, and a handful of WS rings and MVP bracelets, he may very well not be too motivated to keep playing...

m

digicat · July 11, 2007 5:41AM

A-Rod's been mentioning that he likes being in SF.

I hope the Giants' GM takes that as a hint...

stown · July 11, 2007 5:46AM

<< A-Rod's been mentioning that he likes being in SF.

I hope the Giants' GM takes that as a hint...

>>

Why am I not surprised?

F1ferrari · July 11, 2007 6:39AM

All the juice he'll even need to hit 1000+ HRs is already there!

digicat · July 11, 2007 6:49AM

<< All the juice he'll even need to hit 1000+ HRs is already there!

>>

heh...
2008 =

2018 =

F1ferrari · July 11, 2007 7:40AM

Ball players, by BALCO!

dallasactuary · July 11, 2007 7:41AM

<< I know this seems unbelieveable, but (correct me if I'm wrong) Baseball Tonight last night said that if A Rod hits as many HR as Hank Aaron did AFTER THE AGE OF 28 (that is the key), he will end up with 996 HR. That means A Rod has hit a ton of HR before the age of 29. I think they said that Aaron only hit 200+ before that age with 500+ coming after. A Rod will get to 500 already this year.

<< 
Not to quibble, because A-Rod is a fine player and does indeed have a good chance at the HR record, BUT

Arod is turning 32 this month, so I guess what BT meant is that if A-Rod hits as many HR after age 32 as Aaron hit after age 29, then he gets over 900 - but that weird math gives Arod 3 "extra" seasons. And even accepting the weird math, Aaron hit 457 homers after his 29th birthday; that gets Arod to 951, not 996.

If he hits as many home runs from his 32nd birthday onward as Aaron did, he gets to about 850; if he hits as many home runs from 29 onward as Aaron did - which already includes his last three seasons (mid 2004 through mid 2007) - he gets to about 820.

I do believe you that someone on BT said 996, but they were wrong.

It's worth noting, too, that Aaron stands absolutely alone in baseball history in the way his homers moved as he got older (among humans, I mean). It's true that Arod will pass him easily if he hits homers as well as Aaron did as an old man, but there's no particularly good reason to think that he will. I hope and pray that he breaks the record since it will be punkinhead's by then, but I think it's going be a lot closer than BT is implying.

perkdog · July 11, 2007 12:56PM

Way too early to tell, if he stays healthy he should most likely get more than 800 but 1000? Seems too out of reach realisticaly IMO

perkdog · July 11, 2007 12:58PM

<< at a certain level -- A-Rod might not want to play any longer.

I mean, if he gets to 800 HRs, has a billion dollars in the bank, and a handful of WS rings and MVP bracelets, he may very well not be too motivated to keep playing...

m >>

800 HRS? Sure.. Billion Dollars in the bank? OK.. handful of WS rings? Only if he gets out of NY!

Skinpinch · July 11, 2007 1:24PM

Why does Alex Rodriguez get an automatic pass on performance enhancers?

I can't do links, but here is a shot of him, Jeter, Renteria, A. Gonzalez in Sports Illustrated, Feb 1997.....

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.deadspin.com/images/2006/05/shirtlessshortstops.jpg&imgrefurl=http://deadspin.com/sports/baseball/shirts-off-boys-172762.php&h=284&w=350&sz=15&hl=en&start=12&um=1&tbnid=s71wJ3wRX3rj8M:&tbnh=97&tbnw=120&prev=/images?q=alex+rodriguez&svnum=10&um=1&hl=en&rls=GGIH,GGIH:2007-02,GGIH:en

Just looking at him through his uniform now, he is certainly a lot more well built.

stitzen · July 11, 2007 1:28PM

Link

In all fairness, that was a decade ago, and his workouts (first in the weightroom every day) are pretty well known.

perkdog · July 11, 2007 1:34PM

Lets just accuse EVERYONE that hit HR's in the 2000's of being on the juice ok? That way we dont have to BEAT the topic in the ground anymore whenever the word HR is mentioned.

Wabittwax · July 11, 2007 8:32PM

<< Lets just accuse EVERYONE that hit HR's in the 2000's of being on the juice ok? That way we dont have to BEAT the topic in the ground anymore whenever the word HR is mentioned. >>

Agreed. Also, let's keep every current player out of the HOF because of it too.

<< I think they said that Aaron only hit 200+ before that age with 500+ coming after. >>

And while we're at it, lets kick Hank Aaron out of the HOF because those are obvious Steriod type numbers based on the opinion of today's baseball fans.

perkdog · July 11, 2007 9:33PM

<< 

<< Lets just accuse EVERYONE that hit HR's in the 2000's of being on the juice ok? That way we dont have to BEAT the topic in the ground anymore whenever the word HR is mentioned. >>

Agreed. Also, let's keep every current player out of the HOF because of it too.

<< I think they said that Aaron only hit 200+ before that age with 500+ coming after. >>

And while we're at it, lets kick Hank Aaron out of the HOF because those are obvious Steriod type numbers based on the opinion of today's baseball fans. >>

Nah, guys of Aaron's generation are all pretty legit IMO, Im talking STRICTLY about guys in the 90's to 2000's

stown · July 11, 2007 10:25PM

<< Why does Alex Rodriguez get an automatic pass on performance enhancers?

I can't do links, but here is a shot of him, Jeter, Renteria, A. Gonzalez in Sports Illustrated, Feb 1997.....

Just looking at him through his uniform now, he is certainly a lot more well built. >>

Good point but I think he perfers other types of injections.

stitzen · July 12, 2007 2:01AM

Before steroids and HGH it was uppers/'greenies' that Mike Schmidt has said was commonly used by a great number of players. Do we kick them out too?

Or do we accept that enhancing performance is as old as the game itself and move on? If they haven't broken a rule (i.e. failed a drug test), then we must allow them into the Hall.

Wabittwax · July 13, 2007 11:48PM

<< Before steroids and HGH it was uppers/'greenies' that Mike Schmidt has said was commonly used by a great number of players. Do we kick them out too?

Or do we accept that enhancing performance is as old as the game itself and move on? If they haven't broken a rule (i.e. failed a drug test), then we must allow them into the Hall. >>

I say that if people today won't let McGwire in the Hall, then let's kick out of them f'n cheaters from every generation.

Estil · July 16, 2007 7:03AM

<< Before steroids and HGH it was uppers/'greenies' that Mike Schmidt has said was commonly used by a great number of players. Do we kick them out too?

Or do we accept that enhancing performance is as old as the game itself and move on? If they haven't broken a rule (i.e. failed a drug test), then we must allow them into the Hall. >>

Indeed, trying to dismiss a player's record breaking performance is nothing new, for example:

*Hank Aaron took over 4000 more at-bats to break the Babe's record.

*Some in the media wanted HOF-Elect Ripken to stop at 2130 and "share" the record with Gehrig

*Pre-1947 players did not play against Negro League players, and thus did not get the same kind of competition they get now.

*And didn't the Babe hit all those home runs using that tight "live ball" as opposed to the old dead ball from before the 1920s?

*In those days, pitchers had to pitch the entire game, which meant hitters could hit off pitches from a worn out, tired arm in later innings

So you see, it's nothing new.

rube26105 · July 17, 2007 9:50AM

the record in japan for home runs is 890 something i think i t is, it was in the high 800s,he can do thaty,hell, hes young,hell have 500 next week 496 today,,griffey willl have 600 this year, bonds will unfortunately get his this years, sosa got 600+alot of records being broke this year-i hope he does it ,i have some awsome psa 10 rookies of him,just waiting for them to go thu the roofrubesmilitariaandsportcards.com

Hoopster · March 17, 2009 10:04PM

The gay roid users? Thought I would bump this to the top.

larryallen73 · March 17, 2009 11:22PM

I don't see him getting to 1,000. I would put the over/under at 775.

IchiroDeported · March 18, 2009 12:47AM

I would predict that his injuries will mount and he will be done with the game before he is 40.

Aaron is, and shall ever be the true Home Run King.

FanOf390 · March 18, 2009 7:13AM

"Aaron is, and shall ever be the true Home Run King."

Hmmmm, I'll bet you had a hard time passing History in high school -- or should I say will have a hard time passing History in high school ...

IchiroDeported · March 18, 2009 8:06AM

so FAN, who is the home run king? Bonds? dont think so.

Goot · March 18, 2009 8:08AM

There's a pretty cool interview with Hank Aaron in Sporting News this week. Jus sayin....

This seems ridiculous, but A Rod has an outside shot at 1,000 HR

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