Do the scarce positions get more credit than they should from the Sabermatricians?
Skinpinch
Posts: 1,531
in Sports Talk
Sabermatricians love the c, 2b, and SS, and they view them in high regard...and they should. Usually when those players are measured, they are viewed in how well they distance themselves from their average peer, or the average replacement palyer for them.
There is no question a guy like Biggio gets a lot of value from being measured against a weak hitting position...as he is a benefit for teams that don't have that, and a benefit because it would be hard to replace that offense at his position.
BUT, it isn't hard to replace his defense. In fact, it would be quite easy to upgrade it. In fact, that is true for most of the players at thin positions who are there for their offesne...Mike Piazza comes to mind.
Lets look at some measures like WinShares, or Baseballprospectus WARP.
I presume that James deals with defense in terms of absolute value too, and thus a guy must be getting WinShares credit for basically playing a lot of innings in the field. If he is above average defensively he will move quickly with Winshares...if he is below average his winshares will move very slowly...but he will be getting some.
The fielding runs I used were baseballporspectus, and they were measured vs. League replacement level in both hitting and fielding. I can concede that using replacement level for offense is acceptable, especially for a second basemen, but look at the defense.
Here are Biggio's fielding runs as what he saved vs. a league replacement, and against the league avg second baseman.
YEAR....vs. league replacement......vs league avg.
1989.................11..............................-16
1990.................20...............................-10
1991.................19...............................-10
1992.................18...............................-15
1993.................31..............................-1
1994.................38..............................-4
1995.................26..............................-1
1996.................33...............................2
1997.................40..............................13
1998.................22..............................-5
1999.................20..............................-6
2000.................11..............................-4
2001..................8...............................-16
2002.................6................................-16
2003.................15..............................-2
2004.................1................................-12
2005.................15..............................-6
2006.................6................................-13
TOTOL.............334.............................-126
Craig Biggio is getting 334 runs of credit for his defense vs. league replacement...and -126 vs league average. WinShares I presume is giving the same type of credit as the 334 in absolute....and this is part of the reason why I think second baseman, SS, and catchers get too much of a position boost, AND TOO MUCH OF A BOOST FOR PLAYING A LOT OF DEFENSIVE INNINGS.
Guys like Biggio get a lot of hitting value for being able to distance themselves offesnively from a weak offensive position like 2B. They outdistance themself from the average second baseman, as well as the replacement 2B. I agree that that is a positive for a team, and they should be viewed like that.
BUT, they are getting the same credit on the defensive end of the spectrum! This is where baseball common sense comes into play. We all know that the major leagues and minor leagues have a dearth of offensive stars at those weak positions, BUT they are chalk full loaded with defensive standouts!
Looking at the chart above, and knowing what is available in the Majors and Minors, why is Craig Biggio getting so much credit extra for defense when he is being compared against the league replacement as opposed to the league average....when we know that there are plenty of reserve infieders who are just as good or better than the average major league second baseman?
Craig Biggio's career Batter runs vs. replacement and AVG
VS Replacement 732
VS LG Average 370
I can see how measuring vs league replacement is acceptable here, as we know that sticks are hard to find at 2B or catcher, so a big uptick in value is in order. But defense is not hard at all to find at second base or catcher, and any replacement at that position would be just as good defensively, and probably better.
SO I ask again, why should Biggio get 460 runs credit vs the replacement level, when we know that defensively the replacements are just as good as he, and most likely as good as the league average player?
Look at Biggio's last five seasons, and look how much extra credit he is getting for playing below average second base. For Winshares he is getting equivalent of 94 runs of credit to his value, but why? The replacement player would be a boost defensively, certainly not WORSE than a poor fielder like Biggio! This is where measuring vs league average makes more sense. Offensively is a different story, and that should proceed, but not on the defensive side.
So in WinShares, or WARP1, the more innings Biggio steps out at second base, the more unfair credit he is getting in value. So basically all Bobby Grich had to do was just roam around at second base, be below avg, and get defensive credit...despite the fact that there were better defenders who could be playing there in his stead.
Even Ozzie Smith....
Defensive runs Vs. Repalcement level 788
Defensive runs VS. league avg level 270
Why the stark difference? Many of the players that compose the league averge in MLB are there for their offense, and that brings down the level of what the defense would be if a guy were put there for his glove. So even the league average SS is artificially low in terms of a player being compared to replacement levels.
RObin Yount gets an extra 500 runs of defensive credit, but it wouldn't be hard at all to find an above leage avg SS to put into his place, so even measuring vs the league average level is not accurate either. Why? Again, Robin Yount is at that position for his bat...much like others...and they are bringing down the leauge defensive totals, WHEN there are guys who are more capable defensively.
Rod Carew most certainly could have stayed at second base and gotten all the WinShare credit for being below avg...just like Biggio has had in his last five seasons....and Carew wasn't as bad as he looked(based on the results).
0
Comments
Craig Biggio fares pretty well when measured against his peers. Keep in mind the average rates for a particular position, do include the weak hitting good-glove men, not only the good hitters who may not really shine on the field.
2B: Fldg Pct. league average .982, Biggio .984. Range Factor league average 4.35, Biggio 4.77
C : Fldg Pct. league average .987, Biggio .989. Range factor league average 5.54, Biggio 6.22