Wow! Silver down to $12.27!!
Manorcourtman
Posts: 8,206 ✭✭✭✭✭
Just noticed this today. Good thing I didn't listen to "experts" who said to buy,buy,buy when it was $14+!! I admit these levels do look like a good time to get back in the market. Has it bottomed you so-called closet "experts" out there? Buy now or wait for $10-$11? No need to make this thread into a 3000+ post monster thread!
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<< <i>Just noticed this today. Good thing I didn't listen to "experts" who said to buy,buy,buy when it was $14+!! I admit these levels do look like a good time to get back in the market. Has it bottomed you so-called closet "experts" out there? Buy now or wait for $10-$11? No need to make this thread into a 3000+ post monster thread!
If you thought it was not a good thing to listen to them before, why would you be interested in their opinion now?
I like silver alot, but that's just me.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>The important difference between gold and silver is that silver is being consumed. It's also cheaper per the ounce. >>
When during the industrial age has this not been the case? One of the big silver users was photography, which has gone digitial.
CG
It's true that I read alot of mining industry propaganda, but my interpretation of the "buzz" over many years is that we are no longer in the Nelson and Bunker Hunt Era, where huge stocks of silver are available to be cornered - and that, when it's gone this time, it's pretty much gone.
I knew it would happen.
Referencing the other silver thread link, I'm selling all my silver and buying some Twinkies for the long term
I bought at the start of the year with silver around $15/oz. I could have saved a few bucks if I waited. Maybe I need another roll
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
<< <i>Dang! Too bad I already bought my SAEs
I bought at the start of the year with silver around $15/oz. I could have saved a few bucks if I waited. Maybe I need another roll
Bochiman, Buy two
Positive BST as a seller: Namvet69, Lordmarcovan, Bigjpst, Soldi, mustanggt, CoinHoader, moursund, SufinxHi, al410, JWP
<< <i> remember the days when it was only $5.15 an ounce! >>
Wake me when its there again because I remember when it was $50. I probably still have some that I bought at $17 after the Hunts were gone and the bubble had burst. All of the silver pundits were making the same case then as they are today for the long term potential of silver, and that was 27 years ago. At least the photo industry was a big consumer back then.
CG
<< <i>Maybe we'll get lucky and it will keep sliding to the point where it's cheaper than nickel or copper. Then maybe they'll dump the clads and bring back silver coinage... >>
keep dreaming doubt that will ever happen!
Positive BST as a seller: Namvet69, Lordmarcovan, Bigjpst, Soldi, mustanggt, CoinHoader, moursund, SufinxHi, al410, JWP
<< <i>
<< <i>Just noticed this today. Good thing I didn't listen to "experts" who said to buy,buy,buy when it was $14+!! I admit these levels do look like a good time to get back in the market. Has it bottomed you so-called closet "experts" out there? Buy now or wait for $10-$11? No need to make this thread into a 3000+ post monster thread!
If you thought it was not a good thing to listen to them before, why would you be interested in their opinion now?
Don't be a hater!! I'm NOT interested in opinions but get a kick out of the "experts" opinions!!!
If you bought at $17.00 after the peak, what made you think that the price wouldn't drop back to $7.00, which is where it was during 1978? The Hunts did manipulate the market, and once silver crossed $15.00/oz. on the way up, a little voice should have whispered that it wasn't completely real.
This time, the only manipulation is being done by Uncle Sam, and it's only an indirect manipulation of silver, via interest rates and their effect on the dollar. Again, please correct me if I am wrong, but aren't above ground silver stocks dropping to a point where they cannot cover the outstanding contract obligations? Haven't silver stocks dropped from a couple million oz. to a few hundred thousand, with no turnaround? That's fundamental data, and unless it's incorrect, what's going to stop silver from heading up?
I knew it would happen.
commerce in a country in dire straits as it were so, lets not hope for THAT!
<< <i>Again, please correct me if I am wrong, but aren't above ground silver stocks dropping to a point where they cannot cover the outstanding contract obligations? Haven't silver stocks dropped from a couple million oz. to a few hundred thousand, with no turnaround? >>
From Kitco: Silver supplies were unchanged at 139.4 million troy ounces
What contracts are you talking about? Futures? Those are settled by buying back contracts, not through delivery, so it only takes cash to cover them. And you need to know which open contracts are hedges and which are held by speculators or traders, none of whom have the financial ability to take delivery or to put on the squeeze like the Hunts did. And if anyone tried, the exchanges would increase margin requirements and wipe them out like the Hunts.
<< <i>That's fundamental data, and unless it's incorrect, what's going to stop silver from heading up? >>
Nothing, that's why it has dropped from over $14 to under $12.50. Mortgage your house and buy all you can. It can't go down further right?
<< <i> you bought at $17.00 after the peak, what made you think that the price wouldn't drop back to $7.00, which is where it was during 1978? The Hunts did manipulate the market, and once silver crossed $15.00/oz. on the way up, a little voice should have whispered that it wasn't completely real. >>
Inflationary pressures were very strong back then. We wound up with prime at 15%. Silver was supposed to be the great hedge. And of course we had the national debt, and of course we were going to run out of supply down the road etc etc etc. The same story that everyoine is telling today.
CG
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Anyways, SILVER is going way up!!
Short term - I don't know.
But please send me a PM in two years from now, when the price will be north of $17.50. That's a 45% return.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>IF gold and silver were to be used in coins today/future it would be a way to stimulate
commerce in a country in dire straits as it were so, lets not hope for THAT! >>
Amen Brother. We are lucky our nickels contain a real metal!!
ebay ID: 78terp
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1899 Mint Set
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From Kitco: Silver supplies were unchanged at 139.4 million troy ounces
What contracts are you talking about? Futures? Those are settled by buying back contracts, not through delivery, so it only takes cash to cover them. And you need to know which open contracts are hedges and which are held by speculators or traders, none of whom have the financial ability to take delivery or to put on the squeeze like the Hunts did. And if anyone tried, the exchanges would increase margin requirements and wipe them out like the Hunts.
CalGold, where is the 139.4 mm oz. data you are citing at Kitco? Which article? I'd like to look at it, and if I am way off base, I'll admit it. I've got no axe to grind here.
I do understand that futures contracts are not promises for physical delivery. But what was at the back of my mind was an article I read recently that explained that the ETFs are not legally bound to hold a significant amount physical metal to back up their promises. It may never be a problem, but the text of the document was interesting. That's all. No conspiracy. Sorry if my statement sounded too all-encompassing.
Nothing, that's why it has dropped from over $14 to under $12.50. Mortgage your house and buy all you can. It can't go down further right?
I didn't say to mortgage anything or to leverage anything, and I didn't say silver couldn't go down. Let's be clear about that, OK? I put someone through law school and bought a vacation chalet in 1980 from gold and silver margin contract proceeds, but I wouldn't take that same risk now. Just don't put words in my mouth.
Inflationary pressures were very strong back then. We wound up with prime at 15%. Silver was supposed to be the great hedge. And of course we had the national debt, and of course we were going to run out of supply down the road etc etc etc. The same story that everyoine is telling today.
Inflation data isn't reported the same way now as it was then, and they refuse to even track money supply any more. Not even M-3 money supply!. The gov't doesn't include half of the same basic essentials in their representative basket of goods anymore. They exclude the items that seem to have increased the most. Besides that, they have started using "utility" instead of actual costs for goods like computers. I know how much things cost, and it's not getting cheaper at all.
Furthermore, just because the national debt argument and the supply argument were both cited in 1980 doesn't mean that they aren't valid. And yes, the government can raise interest rates to drain liquidity from the system, and they can place trading controls on the markets, but that doesn't change the fundamentals.
So, give me a few days, and cite your references. I want to take another look, do a little research on my own, and see if my assumptions from the past 8 years are still sound. If I end up agreeing with you, I will say so. If I interpret any data differently than you do, I will tell you why. Fair enough?
I knew it would happen.
The supply info is at the botton of the article Gold Futures Drop as Much as $12 at kitco.com.
Regardless of any supply number you see, bear in mind that there are untold tons of silver in India, where any jewlery worn by a bride is her separate property if a marriage fails. Indian brides traditionally are adorned with silver jewelery. Several ounces per bride multiplied by hundreds of millions of women equals a lot of silver. When prices get high enough some of that will find its way into the market, just like the way grandma's candle sticks found their way to the smelter in 1980.
As far as inflationary hedges are concerned, the lesson I learned is that the only way to beat inflation is to earn more and more money if you can, because holding gold and silver just has not been the cure. And if our money ever becomes worthless like the German mark during the 1920's it will take more than a pocket full of double eagles to survive.
CG
That's my take.
I'm a sucker... I have compiled 250,000 troy ounces of .999 over the years...... still waiting.........I might not see it, but maybe my kids or theirs will......and thank me for being the sucker I am. Maybe it's not all about me after all.......
250,000 ounces times lets say 10... so add a zero to the end...
why not just stick the cash in a 3-4% return investment and forget
about things? live off the interest.
sounds very odd to have that much silver just sitting there collecting
dust. after 1 year of interest you could buy gobs of silver :-|
endlessly. year after year. all the while having 2.5 million.
i dont get it. rich people confuse me :-)
btw...you can get CDs for 8-13 months that are 5.25+%......that isn't too bad, considering. Yeah, if I basically had almost $3million in liquid assets, I would likely liquidate and then go to the assured return.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
But who knows
<< <i>No kidding...and storage must be fun too
btw...you can get CDs for 8-13 months that are 5.25+%......that isn't too bad, considering. Yeah, if I basically had almost $3million in liquid assets, I would likely liquidate and then go to the assured return. >>
SHOOT we have to assume that this guy is diversified, with no more than 20-30% maximum in precious metals, we should be asking for advice not giving it!!
I didn't find the reference you mentioned, but that's ok, because I went to the Silver Institute's website, and they had some good summaries and data.
The way that I see the data, total demand is increasing nominally, but industrial demand is gradually replacing demand for silver in jewelry and photography. The amount of new silver being produced is increasing, but not enough to cover total demand. Reclaimed scrap and silver stocks are smaller factors, and both are shrinking slowly. On it's face, this data tells me why the price of silver has trended up the way that it has over the past few years - the supply and demand data makes sense to me.
Note - I was way out to lunch in my off-the-top of my head numbers for silver stocks, so I admit my mistake and should learn to look it up before I make a statement about silver stocks being low. They are getting lower, but aren't as much of a factor in the pricing outlook as what I might have thought.
Now, here's the fun part. I don't see those trends changing any time soon. To me, that indicates a higher silver price. Not just this year, but for years to come. That doesn't even consider what the government is doing to the currency. Of course, a crash in the world economies could drop demand, and consequently the price. All in all, the relative worth of an ounce of silver is undervalued at this time, in my opinion. And I can live with that.
As far as inflationary hedges are concerned, the lesson I learned is that the only way to beat inflation is to earn more and more money if you can, because holding gold and silver just has not been the cure. And if our money ever becomes worthless like the German mark during the 1920's it will take more than a pocket full of double eagles to survive.
I happen to agree with you about both of these points. Regards, jmski
I knew it would happen.
Hell, I don't need to exercise.....I get enough just pushing my luck.
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