65 Wax Pack

rw2win

Here's a question for you vets.

There's a 65 pack on ebay now:
http://cgi.ebay.com/aw-cgi/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=1056505223

The current bid is a little over $300.
1. - What are the chances that the pack is still unsearched?
2. - On average, could I expect to get any 9's?

I know it's a cr*pshoot...any ideas?
I had no idea that cr*p was such a vulgar word???

Thanks,
DL

FB

In a nutshell...

Don't waste your money or your time... I've purchased a few 1972 Topps wax packs and I'm sure that they were unsearched. Out of 5 packs (at $100+ apiece)I've received one PSA 9 NQ and that was a common. Everything else that I sent in came back as an 8 (total of 20 cards). Plus, the centering was borderline 7/8 on most of the cards so I couldn't send them all in.

I got a few stars, but when you look at the odds of getting stars versus commons, they're not in your favor. Save your bucks and look for really nice ungraded cards at some of the major shows.

dalew

I too bought a 72 Topps Wax Pack. It came back Series I and of the cards that were in the pack, I got two Dave Kingmans and the rest commons. The Kingmans weren't cut that great, and either were the commons. I don't think that I would have sent any of them in for grading.

So, I agree, stick to purchasing off ebay or from some other place that has already had the cards graded.

bighurt2000

I used to buy vintage wax packs on EBAY pre 1980's and I had know luck with them. I would open a pack just to find that the cards had dented corners or they were cut off center or ink spots and then you start wondering had they been searched. If I had $300.00 I woundn't spend it on a single wax pack I would by cards that were already graded and take the guess work out of it.

dude

I've said it once and I'll say it again, buying vintage unopened material is like buying lottery tickets. For every great story you hear about, there are dozens of others that took a beating.

The biggest fallacy in the hobby is that unopened material should yield mostly mint or gem mint cards. Three years ago I went through several 1968 vending cases where all the stars were pulled and I cherry picked the remaining commons. Out of 7,000 cards, I pulled about 1400 that were very sharp (scoping them with a 10X magnifier) and worthy of a 9 or 10. Around 40 graded Gem Mint and about 900 graded 9 which is actually good (that's 0.5% Gem Mint and 12.9% Mint). I'm sure I could have submitted another 500-1000 borderline cards and gotten 20-40% of them to grade 9. I also went through several '69 vending cases and the statistics were even worse. The centering of the cards was a major problem. I've seen 50 examples of the same card all off-center and others dead centered. 1969's were the worse I've seen for having centering problems. That's why you see so many lopsided numbers in the population reports.

With a wax pack, you don't know if it's been dropped or damaged and maybe even opened and re-sealed. Plus one of the cards may have a wax stain on the back which hurts it's value a lot.

69topps8

I agree. The cost for a vintage pack will usually exceed what you get from it. I recently opened a 1969 1st series cello. Though the corners were razor sharp, only about half the cards were centered within the PSA 8 guidelines. Out of those, I submitted the star cards (Oliver RC, NL SO Leaders) with a "no qualifier" minimum grade and they got 8's. I have the commons in for grading now and may get a 9 there but won't get the $300 back that I paid for the pack.

And then there is the question of whether the pack was searched. There's a lot of bogus packs out there (including cellos). If you can buy from a trusted seller - BBCKID, SKIPM, PAAK Attack and GEMINT (myself) to name a few, I recommend purchasing a pack and leave it unopened. They are truly rare and make a nice addition to your collection, especially if you have the complete set to go with it.

mcastaldi

On a few occasions we've discussed the economics of unopened material. The main conclusions tended to be, if you collect unopened material and intend to leave it unopened, then go for it. If you buy vintage unopened material with the intention of submitting it, you're in for a rude awakening. As Dude alluded to, your price for each example worth submitting tends way too high.

Mike

mikeschmidt

Agreed with all the above.

It is nice to collect vintage unopened packs. It is unrealistic to think you will make money by cracking them. For every pack you purchase, you are paying a large premium on the chance that there may be a Mickey Mantle or other gem mint star card in the pack.

The printing process was way to rudimentary by today's extraordinarily strict PSA standards to think that you would truly do well from an investment standpoint.

Nonetheless, it is still a lottery. Remember, it was $2,500 pack of 1952 Topps cards that yielded a #1 Andy Pafko that graded PSA 10 GEM MINT and sold for over $85,000. Don't expect that to happen to you, though.

Mitochondria

69topps8,

I echo your thoughts on the prospects of pulling PSA 9's or 10's from the 1969 set via wax packs/cellos. As you know, I walked into a card shop in North Little Rock about 2 years ago after viewing an auction on e-Bay for a 1969 series 1 rack pack. The owner of the shop had received hundreds of rack packs from 1968 to 1972 from an individual who originally had a convenience store in Missouri. The owner had opened one of the 1968 racks and placed all the cards in card savers to show prospective customers. What was evident was that there were alot of cards that were off-centered and some indentations on the sides. I spoke with "dude" at the time and we concluded that the prospects for PSA 9's and 10's were dismal. Thus, I ended up buying 4 1969 rack packs at $250 a pop to keep as nostalgia with no intentions of opening. The seller ended up clearing out the remaining rack packs very quickly.

In regards to 1969 series one cellos, I contacted a seller in Charlotte, NC last summer who was selling them on e-Bay. She explained to me that she had 100's of cellos (clear type), but none of the original boxes that contained them. She offerred to sell them to me at $225/cello, but I backed off after my experience in North Little Rock. Then, in October I noticed that this same seller won this auction:

1969 Series 1 Cello Auction #1

So I tell myself that this seller is simply trying to restock her inventory and will end up charging a higher price. Then, I see this:

1969 Series 1 Cello Auction #2

As a consumer, I am not encouraged to spend money when I see patterns like this and this undermines any confidence I might have in trusting the source of cellos. I don't know what was going on with the above auctions and there may very well be a good explanation for the events that unfolded. Nevertheless, the bottomline is that one needs to be careful in purchasing unopened material in pursuit of obtaining PSA 9 or 10 cards.

Ron

rw2win

Thanks everybody for your replies.
The pack closed at an even $400.00. I agree that for the money, it's nuts. Except for the Mantle, I can buy any card in the set in an "8" for that money.

Thanks,
DL

69topps8

Ron,

You made a good investment on the '69 racks. I wish I hadn't passed on the ones I came across. It would have been nice to add it to my set, cello and wax pack from that year.

Regarding the cello's, I've heard that there have been bogus packs selling on eBay. A frequent buyer told me he purchased a '68 cello with a star card showing. Being that he busts most of his packs, he opened it. The star card was NM+ and one of the cards in the center had a wax stain on the back! You'd think if someone is manufacturing bogus packs, they'd take the trouble to make sure the cards are right. Fortunately the seller refunded his money in that case.