Hypothetical: How much is the upgraded coin worth?

RYK

This scenario is loosely based on a real-life one, but it is probably common to collectors in many areas.

There is a better date coin in your series that sells at auction in a PCGS AU-58 holder for $1150, which appeared to be fair market value at the time of the sale. The coin is then upgraded and reappears at auction a short time later in a PCGS MS-61 holder. Two trusted and recognized experts believe that this coin is a liner coin or super slider, not a lock 61 if resubmitted. Trends in 58 is $1400, 60 is $2000, and 62 is $4000. There has been no significant change in market value, supply, or demand for the coin since it was sold for $1100. The coin has not been altered in any way. Comps include an MS-61 that sold nearly ten years ago for $2875. At the time, that coin was considered the second finest known, but the current pops for the coin are 2 in 61 with 6 finer, and your expert tells you that this previously sold coin is now in a 63 holder (and deserves to be).

Based on the information provided, how much is the coin worth at auction? What additional information would you need or like to know to help determine its value? What was your thinking process and how did you come to your answer?

BlindedByEgo

Coffee. Need coffee.

OK, so since the pop is 2 in 61 - 1 coin being yours and the other is now a 63, the true pop in 61 is only 1.

Depends a lot on how popular the series is - what is the demand? You know what two determined bidders can do to price sheets.

I would guess, all other things being equal, that the coin will sell for more than what it sold in AU58, but less than the previous 61 (which upgraded to 63).

Aegis3

What do I think the coin's grade is?

Darkmane

Cheesy answer, but the only one that matters:

What the 2nd highest bidder is willing to pay, plus the next bidding increment. It depends on the auction, who needs that better date coin, and who knows the coin's history.

I would expect more than 1150, less than 4000. The crackout artist took some risk and will likely reap some reward.

ziggy29

In auction: One increment above the second highest bidder.

Selling at a fixed price? I'd probably start at around $2500 and see if it would stick. I'm assuming there's room to negotiate downward from here if it doesn't sell at that price.

OKbustchaser

To me, it is worth the same 1050 I bid as the underbidder when it was in the 58 holder. The coin hasn't changed. Why would its value to me?

TahoeDale

RYK,

Of course it is potentially worth more than the previous price realized. But you asked what is it worth at auction?

Value- $2500 to 3000. It is now a MS coin, higher in the condition census, and more desireable.

What will it bring? Of course, that depends on who needs it at the time.

Another interesting scenerio, when a 1796 half, 16 stars was in the market about a year ago. When I first saw it, it was in an NGC 64 slab. Priced around $425,000. It had some fairrly severe adjustment marks, though showed nice luster and a very good strike. Could have been bought for about $375,000, but no takers.

The owner decided that it needed to be in a PCGS holder, at 63, so it was submiited at 63 or better, and SURPRISE, it came back 64!.

It then sold for about $475,000 at auction.

Same coin, with the same adjustment marks.

It's amazing what a new grade or holder will do.

tradedollarnut

Any holdered coin is worth the combination of the coin's value and the plastic's value. The coin's value didn't change, the plastic's value did.

By conservatively grading coins, the plastic can actually have a negative value. Properly grading a coin should result in minimal plastic value. Overgrading a coin doesn't change the coin's value, but adds significant plastic value because there are always those willing to buy the holder...

Shortgapbob

To me, it would really come down to what I felt about the coin both times. In the hypothetical, the experts seem a little iffy about the coin. If I really felt it was a 58 that was now overgraded, I would only be interested in it at $1,400-1,600 or so. If I felt it was really PQ for a 58, even as a slider, and that is why it was in a 61 holder, then I may be in at around $2000-2,200.

I imagine if it is clearly not a solid 61, then the coin could hammer at around $2,500. Just my guess, as I am no expert.

DeusExMachina

<< <i>It's amazing what a new grade or holder will do. >>



I agree. RYK, you have a lot of variables and moving parts in this hypothetical but I believe the most important is the plastic. The coin has not changed but a potential buyer’s perception has. If a bidder at auction is new or is not familiar with the series (or the coin's history), they may decide to pay up because of the number on the plastic. This could be a moon money type of sale, given the historical pricing context.

tradedollarnut

Here's another way of looking at it:

Without the constant grade inflation of the recent decade, rare coins such as you just described would have increased in price much more dramatically than they have. They've been held down by the fact that supply in every grade has gone up.

So even if you step up and buy an upgraded coin, you're not paying any more than you otherwise would have to acquire the coin had ALL the grades in the series been constant.

relicsncoins

One thing I would like to know, is how accurate the pop. sensus is. "2 in 61 with 6 finer" Are there really 6 finer, or are there only 3 that have been each cracked once to try for an upgrade?

JJ

topstuf

What is the ambient temperature in the hypothetical auction gallery?

Longacre

Based on the fact that this coin is the only 61 and the former 61 is now a 63 (and based on the Trends values that you gave), I think an auction value will come out to be $3800 or so. This is sad for a coin that is really a 58, and it is not a price that I would pay. Based purely on the figure you presented, I think $3800 is possible.

saintguru

I would say that the coin is worth over $4000.

ANYTIME I need a coin, it's "worth" 25-30% more than I think.

droopyd

<< <i>I'd probably start at around $2500 and see if it would stick. >>