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ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS: How will it effect PSA graded sportscards?
mikescardcloset
Posts: 89
In a similar vein to the Gold and Silver Economic predictions over in the US Coin forum (of which I've read every post--great stuff). I was wondering what the economic future
holds for our beloved hobby in the short (<1 year), medium (1-3 years) and long term (>5 years). I know that we collect because we love it, so for those that say if you like your cards who cares, I can understand that sentiment. However, we spend lots of $$$$ on our cards (sometimes more than we should). It is always nice to be able to get some of that $$$ back out if its needed and not have a pang of regret when you see a similar item at 20% the price you paid. So what do you guys think?
I've notice that collectibles lag employment which lags GDP, so my premise is bad GDP (i.e. recession) signals a coming storm.
SHORT TERM: The music is still playing -- party on! The Registry is an awesome motivator to collecting. Best thing since sliced bread.
MEDIUM TERM: I'm a little more cautious here. If the economy hits recession mode, it could effect us. I've seen 2 recessions hit card collecting in the last 22 years (neither was very pretty). My guess is that low pop vintage will tread water or even creep higher otherwise it wont be on the market. More common vintage stuff will see a sight decline. High pop modern stuff could come down more. The hobby could invent a new way to decrease supply yet again (this was one of the effects of professional grading).
LONG TERM: As a nation we love sports, so there will always be interest. As our sports become more international we could see increased demand from overseas. I see Football as particularly strong given demographics and a rise in popuilarity over the last 30 years. Rare still rules in the long term. Unless of course the most pessamistic gold bugs have it right (which is possible). In that case, I think storing food would be even smarter than hoarding gold.
holds for our beloved hobby in the short (<1 year), medium (1-3 years) and long term (>5 years). I know that we collect because we love it, so for those that say if you like your cards who cares, I can understand that sentiment. However, we spend lots of $$$$ on our cards (sometimes more than we should). It is always nice to be able to get some of that $$$ back out if its needed and not have a pang of regret when you see a similar item at 20% the price you paid. So what do you guys think?
I've notice that collectibles lag employment which lags GDP, so my premise is bad GDP (i.e. recession) signals a coming storm.
SHORT TERM: The music is still playing -- party on! The Registry is an awesome motivator to collecting. Best thing since sliced bread.
MEDIUM TERM: I'm a little more cautious here. If the economy hits recession mode, it could effect us. I've seen 2 recessions hit card collecting in the last 22 years (neither was very pretty). My guess is that low pop vintage will tread water or even creep higher otherwise it wont be on the market. More common vintage stuff will see a sight decline. High pop modern stuff could come down more. The hobby could invent a new way to decrease supply yet again (this was one of the effects of professional grading).
LONG TERM: As a nation we love sports, so there will always be interest. As our sports become more international we could see increased demand from overseas. I see Football as particularly strong given demographics and a rise in popuilarity over the last 30 years. Rare still rules in the long term. Unless of course the most pessamistic gold bugs have it right (which is possible). In that case, I think storing food would be even smarter than hoarding gold.
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Cards made from "oil-based" paper will go higher!
rd
Quicksilver Messenger Service - Smokestack Lightning (Live) 1968
Quicksilver Messenger Service - The Hat (Live) 1971
I think the fact that the majority of football cards (and I'm talking rookies only not commons) are vastly undervalued based on the scarcity. The laws of supply and demand drives these cards more than the GDP. Now the more modern, high pop stuff? Very possibly could go down. But most of those, at least the modern stuff I collect is relatively cheap.
As long as the collector interest and collector demand is there, the supply (or lack thereof) will determine where the football market goes in the future...If you watch the POPs like I have over the last few years, the supply on most of the vintage stuff is simply not keeping up with demand...
In the end, I collect these cards for the enjoyment of it...Even through past recessions, the market has always rebounded correct? I don't really collect for the investment, but if I were to label my collection that way, I would consider it a LONG TERM (10+ years) investment...if you're in it to try and flip cards and make a living, yes you could take a hit in a recession.
Jason
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
Recession = collectibles go down
Never seems to fail
Recession = collectibles go down
Never seems to fail"
What that is describes is more a reflection of the value of the dollar rather then the collectible.
Mark
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
I collect both cards and coins ( raw coins, graded cards)
To me the most amazing thing that has happenned to coins has been the positive influence that the new quarters are having on young collectors...there is now more people into coins than ever before.
Sure not everyone who collects state quarters is going to become a coin collector but some will.
Topps , UD etc ...have actually made things a lot worse , they have alienated young collectors with ever increasing pack prices and a abundance of sets.
the trend in sport cards seems to me to be headed in the right direction ...but it will require either more future demand ( super star player " Mantle") better marketing by the card co's etc.
Compared to the coin side of collecting ...cards are a very young hobby.
Groucho Marx
In the back of my mind, I think we had a very unique set of circumstances in the 80's and 90's to fuel the rise in card prices.
-The four major leagues were red hot. Pre steroids, the Bird/Magic/Jordan era.
-The economy couldn't have been better. Low inflation, good growth. The biggest stock bull market in history.
-Supply was limited (at least pre 92/93/94). Cards were still cards. They were not what they are now.
-There weren't many other alternatives to card collecting. At least, not compared to now.
Long term, I think some non sport sets, golf, boxing, and some of the underrated pre war sets will go up.
81 Topps baseball, 89 Fleer basketball...sets like that, I can't see catching fire.
In a recession, some will probably questioning grading modern cards for $5 or $10 that aren't worth much more than the raw card and the plastic holder.
This may sound crazy but I believe 1986-1992 cards are going to see a strong showing in the coming years. There were a MASSIVE amount of collectors of sports cards in those years. Every single kid I knew had baseball cards back then. Well, those kids are grown up with money in the bank. The supply, while still huge, is shrinking. People like myself dump tens of thousands of commons in the trash. There is a huge untapped nostaglia for those cards by millions of people right now. The demand can only go up (since they're considered junk right now) and the supply can only go down.
My proof of this is Garbage Pail Kids. Same scenario, every kid collected them back in the day. Those kids are doctors and lawyers now and those cards mean a lot to them. There are millions of those around yet I have no problem selling them.
A 1988 Topps set means a heck of a lot more to me than say a 1968 Topps set and there are millions like me.
I think sports in general are in trouble in about 20 years. Most kids today aren't into them like we were as kids. By age 9, I watched Baseball, Football, Basketball, Hockey, Tennis, Golf and even Bowling on TV. My son is 11 and could care less what game is on. His friends could care less too. When I take the family to a game, the kids spend the whole time looking for vendors in hopes of a cotton candy. He loves to play baseball yet I doubt he even knows who Albert Pujols is. I guess some kids like sports nowadays, but none that I know. They care more about their XBox and Myspace.
<< <i>I think sports in general are in trouble in about 20 years. Most kids today aren't into them like we were as kids. By age 9, I watched Baseball, Football, Basketball, Hockey, Tennis, Golf and even Bowling on TV. My son is 11 and could care less what game is on. His friends could care less too. When I take the family to a game, the kids spend the whole time looking for vendors in hopes of a cotton candy. He loves to play baseball yet I doubt he even knows who Albert Pujols is. I guess some kids like sports nowadays, but none that I know. They care more about their XBox and Myspace. >>
You are absolutely correct. My son is 14 and he loves baseball cards however, his friends could care less. My son goes to a large school and he is convinced that he is the only collector of sports cards in his entire school.
I am not sure what can be done about this, but I can see trouble in the not so distant future.
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As far as collecting goes, my sons both collect cards, but when it comes to spending his own cash on cards, my 10 yo most often buys Pokemon cards. It better than nothing, I guess.
They're fun kids, I play with them often outside, throwing a football, playing basketball.
But it's funny, I never hear them talking about sports. I've been friends with them for a few years, I don't think I've heard one word about baseball, the NBA, anything.
It's pokemon, gameboy, DS, alot of video games, card games.
Something else to consider is the 80's and 90's were the height of mass media. Everybody watched the same tv channels, they had the same hobbies. There was no fragmentation like there is now...with 500 tv channels, 100 million youtube clips or whatever it is. There's alot more things to do now. Plus you didn't have alternative sports..snowboarding, X games, skateboarding.
My guess in another 10-15 years, is there will be another shift in the graded market. It'll change from the standard now (PSA 1-10 scale). The current scale won't last forever. Maybe that'll reduce supply, and prices for some cards might go way up.
Many variables enter into the equation, and of course sportscard collectors are still a very minor part of the population, and of the entire collector group. There is always more flux with the newer items. The older items ( 50-60 and more years old ) will have a less changing demand and price variances. That is a broad generalization, there will always be changes, but less often or drastic.
"Vintage" items, especialy those professionally authenticated and evaluated, also have an interest from "Americana" type collectors, who are mainly interested in older bits of the past, in desirable art like format, rather than sports devotees, which are most of the sportscard collectors. The well-to-do financially, will usually have funds available for their interests, regardless of the overall economy.
Somewhat scarce, older, and attractive items, like many graded cards, will have an additional interest/demand that most newer cards do not.
It seems the very old, pre WW2, cards, even in lower grades, have done quite well over the last few years, perhaps as the population ages, the desire for post war items shall increase.