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Who has the best shot at 755 HR or more?

frankhardyfrankhardy Posts: 8,097 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
Like him or not, we know that Barry Bonds will break the 755 HR mark sometime this season barring injury.

My question is this - who else will break it. I really think Alex Rodriguez is as close to a lock as anybody. Also, I think that Andruw Jones and Albert Pujols both have a pretty good shot. Anybody else?

Here is the top 100 active HR leaders from baseball-reference.com. I am not sure why Palmeiro is on the active list. I guess he hasn't officially retired yet.


Rank Player (age) Home Runs Bats
1. Barry Bonds* (42) 745 L
2. Sammy Sosa (38) 597 R
3. Ken Griffey* (37) 571 L
4. Rafael Palmeiro* (42) 569 L
5. Frank Thomas (39) 492 R
6. Alex Rodriguez (31) 479 R
7. Jim Thome* (36) 477 L
8. Manny Ramirez (35) 476 R
9. Gary Sheffield (38) 461 R
10. Jeff Bagwell (39) 449 R
11. Juan Gonzalez (37) 434 R
12. Mike Piazza (38) 420 R
13. Carlos Delgado* (35) 410 L
14. Chipper Jones# (35) 368 B
15. Jason Giambi* (36) 355 L
16. Jim Edmonds* (37) 351 L
17. Jeff Kent (39) 350 R
18. Vladimir Guerrero (31) 348 R
Andruw Jones (30) 348 R
20. Luis Gonzalez* (39) 335 L

Rank Player (age) Home Runs Bats
21. Shawn Green* (34) 323 L
22. Moises Alou (40) 321 R
23. Vinny Castilla (39) 320 R
24. Jeromy Burnitz* (38) 315 L
25. Ruben Sierra# (41) 306 B
26. Reggie Sanders (39) 305 R
27. Steve Finley* (42) 304 L
28. Tim Salmon (38) 299 R
29. Todd Helton* (33) 290 L
30. Bernie Williams# (38) 287 B
31. Craig Biggio (41) 284 R
32. Ivan Rodriguez (35) 280 R
33. Richie Sexson (32) 278 R
34. Ryan Klesko* (36) 272 L
35. Raul Mondesi (36) 271 R
36. Troy Glaus (30) 264 R
37. Brian Giles* (36) 261 L
38. Javy Lopez (36) 260 R
39. Albert Pujols (27) 256 R
40. John Olerud* (38) 255 L

Rank Player (age) Home Runs Bats
Scott Rolen (32) 255 R
42. Bret Boone (38) 252 R
43. Paul Konerko (31) 250 R
44. Jose Valentin# (37) 248 B
45. Jermaine Dye (33) 243 R
46. Garret Anderson* (35) 242 L
Miguel Tejada (31) 242 R
48. David Ortiz* (31) 240 L
49. Tony Clark# (35) 232 B
50. Lance Berkman# (31) 230 B
Carlos Lee (31) 230 R
52. Magglio Ordonez (33) 227 R
53. Matt Stairs* (39) 221 L
54. Tony Batista (33) 219 R
55. Derrek Lee (31) 218 R
56. Eric Chavez* (29) 217 L
Benito Santiago (42) 217 R
58. Cliff Floyd* (34) 215 L
59. Nomar Garciaparra (33) 212 R
Alfonso Soriano (31) 212 R

Rank Player (age) Home Runs Bats
61. Carlos Beltran# (30) 211 B
62. Jeff Conine (41) 210 R
63. Adam Dunn* (27) 209 L
64. Phil Nevin (36) 208 R
65. Bobby Abreu* (33) 207 L
66. Aramis Ramirez (29) 206 R
67. Jose Cruz# (33) 202 B
Carl Everett# (36) 202 B
Jorge Posada# (35) 202 B
70. Geoff Jenkins* (32) 199 L
71. Adrian Beltre (28) 196 R
Mike Cameron (34) 196 R
73. Mike Sweeney (33) 194 R
Rondell White (35) 194 R
75. Pat Burrell (30) 193 R
76. J.T. Snow* (39) 189 L
Preston Wilson (32) 189 R
78. B.J. Surhoff* (42) 188 L
79. Derek Jeter (33) 185 R
80. Brian Jordan (40) 184 R
Rank Player (age) Home Runs Bats
81. Ray Durham# (35) 179 B
82. Julio Franco (48) 173 R
83. Torii Hunter (31) 172 R
84. Richard Hidalgo (32) 171 R
85. Rich Aurilia (35) 170 R
Mike Lowell (33) 170 R
87. Jose Hernandez (37) 168 R
88. Charles Johnson (35) 167 R
89. J.D. Drew* (31) 164 L
90. Jacque Jones* (32) 160 L
91. Dmitri Young# (33) 157 B
92. Johnny Damon* (33) 156 L
93. Damion Easley (37) 153 R
94. Mike Lieberthal (35) 150 R
95. Juan Encarnacion (31) 147 R
Jose Guillen (31) 147 R
97. Edgardo Alfonzo (33) 146 R
Mark Teixeira# (27) 146 B
99. Aubrey Huff* (30) 145 L
Vernon Wells (28) 145 R

Shane

Comments

  • kcballboykcballboy Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭
    A-Rod of course
    Andruw Jones & Vlad are both guys who are on pace to be close and is entering thier HR primes
    Pujols with about 3-4 more solid years would be considered legitimate
    If Griffey could stay healthy enough to avg 30 over the next 5 years he'd be close as well
    Manny could if he goes into his early 40's but I don't see it happening

    With what has been shown by guys like Clemens, Bonds, Johnson etc. being competitive into their 40's I think you're gonna see a lot more guys getting close. You almost have to assume a guy will be playing until he's 42-43 instead of 37-40 like previous eras.
    Travis
  • frankhardyfrankhardy Posts: 8,097 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This one may be overlooked due to the fact he strikes out alot, but what about Adam Dunn. He is just 27 years old but already has 209 HR. The guy hits 30 to 40 per year. I think he has a shot as well. Agree?

    Shane

  • kcballboykcballboy Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭
    I just don't think Dunn is a good enough hitter to have the longer career needed. I see him really tailing off in his early 30's and probably out of the league by 35. As big as he is, I doubt he will have the bat speed for as long as it will be required to make the push.
    Travis
  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 30,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Arod for sure, Andruw Jones, Vlad got a shot IMO
  • SkinpinchSkinpinch Posts: 1,531
    One can't be certain on the age of a few of those guys, and that may play a role down the road.


  • stownstown Posts: 11,321 ✭✭✭
    Hunter Pence.

    image
    So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
  • baseballfanbaseballfan Posts: 5,456 ✭✭✭
    i think a-rod beats any record bonds sets, if he stays healthy for another 8-9 years
    Fred

    collecting RAW Topps baseball cards 1952 Highs to 1972. looking for collector grade (somewhere between psa 4-7 condition). let me know what you have, I'll take it, I want to finish sets, I must have something you can use for trade.

    looking for Topps 71-72 hi's-62-53-54-55-59, I have these sets started

  • BobaFett72BobaFett72 Posts: 7,304
    I think Vlad will succumb to injuries (back) long before he has a shot at any records. Andruw Jones has an outside shot; he has never hit for a high average. AROD by far is the most talented, youngest and capable current player with a good shot.
  • halosfanhalosfan Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭✭
    Vlad has no shot at 755 and I'm a huge fan of his. He is a magnificent hacker with power but is not really a homer machine. That guy can hit damn near anything a pitcher throws, and hit it real hard.

    Best bet is Alex. But the real story with these longevity records is: Will these guys have the desire to play long enough having already banked hundreds of millions of dollars? Additionally, you have to get to the bigs real early in your career (with playing time) to hit some of these milestones.

    As for the other guys on that list, I can't see it happening. Griffey may crack 700 if he can stay healthy. Sosa will crack 600. I see a number of these guys dropping out after getting to 500. Hopefully Sheffield drops out before 500.

    I had no idea that Edmonds was that high on the list. I hope he gets a serious look for the hall when his time comes.
    Looking for a Glen Rice Inkredible and Alex Rodriguez cards
  • 80sToyguy80sToyguy Posts: 383
    I agree Vlad won't get to 755, and I might be his biggest fan, but I do see him climbing the hit ladder alot higher than most. I see him ending his career with about 550 homers and 3300ish hits.
    A-Rod for sure has the best chance of beating Bonds, but who's to say Bonds hits 756 and stops there? The way this guy is going he could play 2 or 3 more years (as a DH somewhere if he wanted to), and hit 825ish, even Arod would have a tough time getting to that mark.
    Jay
  • VolverVolver Posts: 753
    ARod is the only one I see as we sit here today
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