Does this HR increase raise any eyebrows??
Skinpinch
Posts: 1,531
in Sports Talk
Check out this player's HR increase...
Age 22-32: One HR every 88 at bats.
Age 33-41: One HR every 51 at bats.
Each of the two time periods contain at least 3,500 at bats. An increase in batting average was also evident.
Discuss.
Age 22-32: One HR every 88 at bats.
Age 33-41: One HR every 51 at bats.
Each of the two time periods contain at least 3,500 at bats. An increase in batting average was also evident.
Discuss.
0
Comments
<< <i>Check out this player's HR increase...
Age 22-32: One HR every 88 at bats.
Age 33-41: One HR every 51 at bats.
Each of the two time periods contain at least 3,500 at bats. An increase in batting average was also evident.
Discuss. >>
Not necessarily. Power tends to peak into the thirties and it's not unusual for players to display little power in their early 20s. Plus, we're talking about an increase of only about 5 homers per season (assuming about 600 ABs in a season). Also, is the increase in batting average correspondent with a decrease in strikeout rate?
<< <i>Clearly baseball players do not hit their prime unitl age 32ish. So this players increased production should come as no surprise. >>
Agreed
Bosox1976
On the other hand, an improvement from pathetic power to anemic power between two 10-year periods could also be the result of just one fluky season in the latter half of his career; if Campaneris' 22 dinger season came at 34 instead of 28, for example, he'd see a proportional increase like that.
On the third hand, we're almost certainly talking about someone whose ABs per season dropped off in the second half of his career. Maybe a switch hitter who started batting only from his "power side" late in his career?
I'm just thinking out loud hoping a name pops into my head, but it's not working. Maybe something I wrote will ring a bell for someone else.
I will add, to those who seem to think it's normal for AB/HR to be better at 33 and later than it was before. It's not at all common; in fact, it's extremely unusual. Leaving out the modern steroid freaks, HR production typically peaks several years earlier than that and drops off drastically in the late 30's.
<< <i>I will add, to those who seem to think it's normal for AB/HR to be better at 33 and later than it was before. It's not at all common; in fact, it's extremely unusual. Leaving out the modern steroid freaks, HR production typically peaks several years earlier than that and drops off drastically in the late 30's. >>
it's not unusual for power to *peak* in the early 30s. If you graphed age versus power, you'd probably see the lowest power in the early 20s, rapid increases starting at around age 25, beginning to level off around 28 to 30, peaking around 30 to 32 and slowly decreasing until about 38 to 40 when it begins to fall sharply. (I don't know this; I'm just guessing based on considering the careers of many players.)
Most players probably have a lot more raw power at 40 than at 22. But they also have slower bat speed and perhaps fading vision and hand-eye coordination; it's those, not the lack of power, which seem more the cause for the decline. Players who continue to see the ball well and have great coordination (steroids or not, Bonds clearly qualifies here) can continue to jack 'em well into their late 30s and beyond.
<< <i>it's not unusual for power to *peak* in the early 30s. If you graphed age versus power, you'd probably see the lowest power in the early 20s, rapid increases starting at around age 25, beginning to level off around 28 to 30, peaking around 30 to 32 and slowly decreasing until about 38 to 40 when it begins to fall sharply. (I don't know this; I'm just guessing based on considering the careers of many players.)
>>
That's probably right; homers peak for most everyone at 31 plus or minus a couple of years. But, what I meant was, a player having greater power from 33 to retirement than he up to 33 would be extremely rare (other than the steroid freaks). The dropoff from the peak is always faster than the buildup. At least, when I was trying to find a counterexample, I couldn't; not among players who lasted very long after their peak anyway. If there is an exception - and I assume there is since skinpinch appears to have found one - it's going to be someone who never had much power in the first place.
<< <i>Tony Gwynn is the only player I could think of that is even close to those figures, but even he has more power than your example. Either your example is a modern 98-pound weakling who switched parks (or the park changed) in his early 30's or he was in his early 30's when the deadball era ended. Not many player get to play 20 years as more or less full-time players without reaching 150 homers; he must have been really, really good at something besides hitting if he's a modern player.
On the other hand, an improvement from pathetic power to anemic power between two 10-year periods could also be the result of just one fluky season in the latter half of his career; if Campaneris' 22 dinger season came at 34 instead of 28, for example, he'd see a proportional increase like that.
On the third hand, we're almost certainly talking about someone whose ABs per season dropped off in the second half of his career. Maybe a switch hitter who started batting only from his "power side" late in his career?
I'm just thinking out loud hoping a name pops into my head, but it's not working. Maybe something I wrote will ring a bell for someone else.
I will add, to those who seem to think it's normal for AB/HR to be better at 33 and later than it was before. It's not at all common; in fact, it's extremely unusual. Leaving out the modern steroid freaks, HR production typically peaks several years earlier than that and drops off drastically in the late 30's. >>
If it is Tony Gwynn, then this pretty-much corresponds to a conversation he had with Ted Williams. Tony sat down with Ted, and Ted got him to change his stroke slightly and Tony's power numbers along with his batting average did go up afterwards.
Steve
<< <i>If it is Tony Gwynn, then this pretty-much corresponds to a conversation he had with Ted Williams. Tony sat down with Ted, and Ted got him to change his stroke slightly and Tony's power numbers along with his batting average did go up afterwards. >>
Not only did his batting average rise, but his strikeout rate -- already low to begin with -- started falling at age 30. From 1984 to 1989 (age 24 to 29), he averaged about 33 strikeouts per full season; in partial seasons the '82 and '83 rates were a little higher than that. Starting in 1990 (age 30), he averaged less than 20 whiffs a season.
Jay
Age 20-32 1 homer for every 17.7 at bats
Age 33-42 1 homer for every 13.1 at bats