Will Bonds cards spike?????????

frankhardy · May 9, 2007 11:15PM

The other thread won't show up.

Regardless of whether you dislike him or you absolutely hate him, do you think Bonds cards will spike the week that he breaks the record? I wonder if it would pay off to buy up a few high end Bonds cards (PSA 10 rookies and autos) and flip them the week that he breaks the record. Hey, I'm all for making a buck or two off the guy if it's possible. I'm not scared to spend the money either if I'm sure it will pan out. Thoughts?

MeteoriteGuy · May 9, 2007 11:30PM

I think they will. In fact, it seems to me his PSA rookies are selling better already.

Mark

f2tornado · May 10, 2007 12:09AM

I think there will be a brief spike. The savvy sellers will have a bunch on auction format and BINs on various days when Bonds could break the record. The impulse buyers will go nuts like they always do and then prices will go back to earth. Once Bonds does break the record barring some freak injury then every seller will be dumping these cards so the early birds will be the ones to get the best bang out the deal. I don't own any Bonds cards or I'd be utilizing this sales strategy.

mikeschmidt · May 10, 2007 12:10AM

I think they won't spike more than 2-5%. The price has already factored in that he will break the record.

TNTonPMS · May 10, 2007 12:12AM

All I have is one Barry Bonds card

Cruddy scan, the gold border looks more like copper or brown

AlanAllen · May 10, 2007 12:18AM

I'd be willing to bet 10:1 that prices on his cards drop when he breaks the record. As Marc said, the record is already factored in to the price of his cards. I've seen it over and over and over... Emmitt? dropped when he broke the record. Marino. Countless shoo-in HOFers have dropped when they get elected or inducted. Only surprises cause card prices to spike, such as a season record (McGwire for instance).

Joe

larryallen73 · May 10, 2007 12:18AM

I think they will because non-card collectors will buy them. In fact, I think raw cards will spike more than graded cards.

Estil · May 10, 2007 12:21AM

Well, based on previous times players have went for a major record (like Cal Ripken in 1995, which Beckett made a big fuss about how his cardd values actually went OVER that of Thomas/Griffey, the big guns back in the 90s), they will peak right before/during the breaking of the record, then decrease somewhat once the hoopla dies down. So look for that to happen here.

AlanAllen · May 10, 2007 12:28AM

Cal Ripken is a great example. Prices rise in anticipation, and drop when the record is inevitably broken. Buy the rumor sell the news, as they say on wall street.

Joe

1989FleerBillRipkencollector · May 10, 2007 12:30AM

I assume the card is peaking and will lower once it gets closer as more will try to profit and market will flood.

TNTonPMS · May 10, 2007 12:31AM

I'm surprised they haven't spiked already .
He's definitley going to break the record.
How happy is he going to be on that day ?
I can only imagine . . . .
And all his fans too .

Estil · May 10, 2007 12:38AM

I don't care how much negative press you get (whether it be for unfounded 'roid allegations in Bonds' case or racist letters in Aaron's case), wouldn't YOU be happy to break such a legendary career record? I sure would!

GlynRParson · May 10, 2007 12:50AM

Beckett HAS NO bearing on prices in today's market.

BobaFett72 · May 10, 2007 12:51AM

im still waiting for an asteroid to fall from the heavens and leave nothing more than a smoking crater

but if that doesnt happen ive got about 200 barry cards ill throw up on Ebay!

Estil · May 10, 2007 1:01AM

<< Beckett HAS NO bearing on prices in today's market. >>

They did back in the mid-90s; I was using that as an example.

larryallen73 · May 10, 2007 2:37AM

This is not Cal Ripken's streak, Emmitt Smith or any other sports record... Bonds will be breaking THE most sacred sports record. You can argue that point if you want but in American culture the home run champ is THE top dawg of all. One poster above correctly stated that prices reflect the fact he will break the record but I don't think that's totally true. There will be a lot of novis collectors buying cards "for their kids" and stuff like that.

Yankeeefan · May 10, 2007 2:46AM

<< I think they will because non-card collectors will buy them. In fact, I think raw cards will spike more than graded cards. >>

basestealer · May 10, 2007 4:18AM

The price won't spike. Look what happened to Griffey cards when he was crippled by injuries--they fell. Or when McGwire was crippled by injury--they fell big time, too. If the cards were priced based on their performance to that point, then they should have stayed where they were. They fell because the prices reflected anticipated performance that hadn't happened yet. The same is true of Bonds. Shop at Home might light the fire under the idiots to go looking for these things, but the sheer quantity of Bonds rookies in existance is more than enough to satisfy that need without inflating the price. I think if anything goes up in value, it will be unopened '87 product.

handyman · May 10, 2007 5:00AM

They are the highest they will be. People are causing demand now with the idea that he is going to break the record. Once its broken everyone and there dog will try to cash in on this Home run hitter. The market will be fluded once he does so. Just look back at old records that were broken. Cal Ripken, Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire, And when Bonds broke McGwires recod. They all went way up before they broke there records and then they fell and nobody wanted to buy them anymore.

jmbkb4 · May 10, 2007 5:09AM

<< I think there will be a brief spike. The savvy sellers will have a bunch on auction format and BINs on various days when Bonds could break the record. The impulse buyers will go nuts like they always do and then prices will go back to earth. Once Bonds does break the record barring some freak injury then every seller will be dumping these cards so the early birds will be the ones to get the best bang out the deal. I don't own any Bonds cards or I'd be utilizing this sales strategy. >>

This is the best post of the thread. Prices will certainly rise briefly, and it will be due to casual collectors getting caught up in the national media attention.

Estil · May 10, 2007 6:03AM

<< I think if anything goes up in value, it will be unopened '87 product. >>

Oh? Why's that?

itzagoner · May 10, 2007 10:34AM

when and if he hits the magical homer (teeth gnashing), will he retire that day? think not, he'll still be playing and maybe hit some more homers and a few more after that, and God forbid the Giants make the playoffs, he still has a chance to pursue what he says he truly cares about, a World Series title.....his cards will hold an attraction to collectors as long as he is still playing baseball (teeth grinding and broken), and quite likely stay valuable for awhile after he retires (sigh)....the next logical spike would occur after the 5 year wait as he approaches his candidacy for Cooperstown....did i just say that?????

chaz43 · May 10, 2007 11:38AM

<< I think they won't spike more than 2-5%. The price has already factored in that he will break the record. >>

I disagree with you MS. I feel they will get a 20 - 30 % spike at least. chaz

PasadenaMudSlide · May 10, 2007 11:52AM

I've got a handful of "NJMH Gem Mint 10" rookies that will be going on the auction block.

dontippet · May 10, 2007 12:41PM

<< 

<< I think they won't spike more than 2-5%. The price has already factored in that he will break the record. >>

I disagree with you MS. I feel they will get a 20 - 30 % spike at least. chaz >>

In some cases, his cards have gone up 100% in the past year. Just check out some of the sales on naxcom in the past year. I just sold (2) 1987 Fleer Glossy Bonds PSA 9 for $67 each. They dipped as low as $32 in the past year.

chaz43 · May 10, 2007 2:26PM

<< 

<< 

<< I think they won't spike more than 2-5%. The price has already factored in that he will break the record. >>

I disagree with you MS. I feel they will get a 20 - 30 % spike at least. chaz >>

In some cases, his cards have gone up 100% in the past year. Just check out some of the sales on naxcom in the past year. I just sold (2) 1987 Fleer Glossy Bonds PSA 9 for $67 each. They dipped as low as $32 in the past year. >>

MS is very conservative on this and I respect his opinion but I think he is off. We're talking about the #1 record. chaz

MeteoriteGuy · May 10, 2007 2:36PM

Bond PSA 10's have spiked, I imagine all his better stuff has. The better question is, when will they peak.

Mark

basestealer · May 13, 2007 11:45AM

<< 

<< I think if anything goes up in value, it will be unopened '87 product. >>

Oh? Why's that? >>

Many factors. Try to remember back in the mid 90's, before McGwire got hot (and after having not been so hot for a few years). 80's wax was over-produced and there were so many cases that I it seemed it would be in abundant supply for infinity. '85 wax boxes could be had for $20 or $1 a pack. When McGwire and Sosa were battling it out for the homerun crown in '98, Shop at Home pushed the '85 rookie and unopened product to new levels never seen before. eBay was inundated with fresh '85 cases right and left, selling for $2400+ each. People devised systems for sorting rack packs to find the McGwire rookies, and on and on and on. Before you knew it, McGwire's rookie went from a $5 card to a $200 card, and suddenly it was worth busting these relatively cheap cases open to find gem mint examples. And nearly everyone did this. Enough people busted open cases and boxes that by the time McGwire's star had waned, and his rookie settled back down to normal levels, the unopened product did not fall nearly as fast or as far.

So, the McGwire rookie went from $5 to $200 back down to where it is now at $30. It's now worth just 15% of its high.
Wax boxes went from $20 to $150 back down to about $100 where they are now. It's still worth 67% of its high.

So what was the better investment? Prior to McGwire getting hot, either would have been good investments. But after it was clear McGwire was an emerging superstar in baseball, only the unopened product held its value.

With 1987, production figures were even higher than in '85. Be that as it may, it's still a 20 year old set, and people have been busting these things open periodically through the years as one or more players made a move. We've already seen increases in 87 fleer product (perhaps the lowest minted of the big 3 that year). So long as you can buy a wax box for less than a mint 9 rookie from the same set sells for, it's a bargain, and people will be busting these open until the supply can no longer meet demand--at which point the unopened product will increase beyond the individual cards found in the box. The 87 sets may plummet, the Bonds rookies may plummet, the desirability of these sets and cards may fall, but the unopened product will be changed indefinately--it will become a scarcer year to find unopened product than the '86, '88, or '89, and prices will reflect this.

grote15 · May 13, 2007 12:16PM

1987 Topps unopened product is far too plentiful to ever appreciate in value to any significant degree, at least in our lifetime.

Also, 87 Fleer is about the same price now (roughly $75 a box) as it was five years ago. In fact, I believe it's even lower, now, at least on ebay, as I can recall these boxes going for close to $100 in years past.

softparade · May 13, 2007 1:06PM

Whether Bonds cards spike or not is really irrelevant given the fact that they are easier to find then a mosquito on a wet humid summer night in New Jersey! Supply will never support any temporary spike. THEN, you factor in the steroid question and you might as well wipe your a$$ with them

basestealer · May 13, 2007 1:11PM

<< 1987 Topps unopened product is far too plentiful to ever appreciate in value to any significant degree, at least in our lifetime.

Also, 87 Fleer is about the same price now (roughly $75 a box) as it was five years ago. In fact, I believe it's even lower, now, at least on ebay, as I can recall these boxes going for close to $100 in years past. >>

The same thing was said about 70's wax 20 years ago, and 80's wax since then. When the flurry over Bonds rookies hits its peak, greater than 50% of the remaining supply of '87 cases will be busted. That's my opinion--supported by what's happened in the past. It may not appreciate to moon money, but the question I answered was about price spikes in general, to any degree. Bonds cards will settle back down, but when the dust settles an accounting must be done of the availability of '87 unopened product and a new price level will be created.

grote15 · May 13, 2007 1:19PM

The same thing was said about 70's wax 20 years ago, and 80's wax since then

I can also recall when 1975 Topps cellos were fetching almost $100 a pack about 5 years ago. Now, you can pick them up for almost half that, due, in large part, to the realization among collectors that there are many more unopened cases than anyone ever thought. And that's for 1975 Topps! Truth is there is FAR MORE unopened product from anyone ever thought, and the prices reflect this right now. 1987 Topps? Maybe in the year 2027 it may crack $25 a box.

softparade · May 13, 2007 1:33PM

<< The same thing was said about 70's wax 20 years ago, and 80's wax since then. When the flurry over Bonds rookies hits its peak, greater than 50% of the remaining supply of '87 cases will be busted. That's my opinion--supported by what's happened in the past. It may not appreciate to moon money, but the question I answered was about price spikes in general, to any degree. Bonds cards will settle back down, but when the dust settles an accounting must be done of the availability of '87 unopened product and a new price level will be created. >>

There is more 87 unopened product sitting around right this very moment then there was of any 70's issue before those cards even hit the shelves in the 70's ........ there is ALOT of late 70's unopened still around but it PALES in comparison to the glut of mid to late 80's unopened available. Mid to late 80's issues were produced until the cows came home ..... and then some. Then, you have just GARGANTUAN amounts of 80's raw that has already been busted sitting in untold large count boxes in untold basements, attics, and closets of collectors from this period. I have more then 30,000 1987 Topps raw sitting in my basement. I have no idea how many Bonds cards there are but I am sure I have 400 plus 87 Topps Bonds cards, and I am NOT kidding. As much as late 70's cards are talked about being so "modern" and "plentiful" I WISH I had 400 plus 78 Mollies, Murrays, and Ryans sitting around to go through.

grote15 · May 13, 2007 1:39PM

As much as late 70's cards are talked about being so "modern" and "plentiful" I WISH I had 400 plus 78 Mollies, Murrays, and Ryans sitting around to go through.

I second that notion!

cardbender · May 13, 2007 9:01PM

<< Whether Bonds cards spike or not is really irrelevant given the fact that they are easier to find then a mosquito on a wet humid summer night in New Jersey! Supply will never support any temporary spike. THEN, you factor in the steroid question and you might as well wipe your a$$ with them

>>

Agreed!

Also, who says he WILL actually break the record? Suppose some nut with a high powered rifle decides to take out his kneecap when he gets to 754? It could happen. He might be the most despised player in Baseball history. Look at all the death threats Henry Aaron received as he approached Babe Ruth's career record. It was very sad. I think society is a little more off it's rocker now than then.

While I wouldn't wish any harm to come to Bonds, I also wouldn't
shed a tear if it did. Wow, did I just say that?

Ripken · May 14, 2007 1:25AM

Heritage Auctions is offering a $1 million payout for the ball.

chaz43 · May 14, 2007 3:00AM

<< Whether Bonds cards spike or not is really irrelevant given the fact that they are easier to find then a mosquito on a wet humid summer night in New Jersey! Supply will never support any temporary spike. THEN, you factor in the steroid question and you might as well wipe your a$$ with them

>>

Disagree. chaz

RipublicaninMass · May 14, 2007 3:04AM

How much are 75 topps packs now? A ryan psa 10 woul dbe worth cracking the case, however it would be a 1 in a million shot at hittin that card in psa 10. As far at 87 topps, I think any bonds you pull would have a shot at a 10. I digress, I think Bonds are are spiking now, and will hold steady UNLESS some PROOF that he is juicing NOW comes out. $hit he already admitted he took em.

ORANGE · May 15, 2007 11:47PM

<< 

<< The same thing was said about 70's wax 20 years ago, and 80's wax since then. When the flurry over Bonds rookies hits its peak, greater than 50% of the remaining supply of '87 cases will be busted. That's my opinion--supported by what's happened in the past. It may not appreciate to moon money, but the question I answered was about price spikes in general, to any degree. Bonds cards will settle back down, but when the dust settles an accounting must be done of the availability of '87 unopened product and a new price level will be created. >>

There is more 87 unopened product sitting around right this very moment then there was of any 70's issue before those cards even hit the shelves in the 70's ........ there is ALOT of late 70's unopened still around but it PALES in comparison to the glut of mid to late 80's unopened available. Mid to late 80's issues were produced until the cows came home ..... and then some. Then, you have just GARGANTUAN amounts of 80's raw that has already been busted sitting in untold large count boxes in untold basements, attics, and closets of collectors from this period. I have more then 30,000 1987 Topps raw sitting in my basement. I have no idea how many Bonds cards there are but I am sure I have 400 plus 87 Topps Bonds cards, and I am NOT kidding. As much as late 70's cards are talked about being so "modern" and "plentiful" I WISH I had 400 plus 78 Mollies, Murrays, and Ryans sitting around to go through. >>

Everyone go dump your 87 topps cards in the ocean 1....2.....3

RipublicaninMass · May 16, 2007 12:13AM

Think there are any Bonds in here?

RedHeart54 · May 16, 2007 1:08AM

I picked this up recently. I just always wanted it. It's a nice looking card from a relatively scarce set and this Bonds is the scarcer green back version (as opposed to the yellow back). I'm not suggesting that the alternative "rookie" cards of his (e.g. this '87 Classic, '87 Fleer Hottest Stars, '87 Topps Glossy, '87 Toys R Us) would necessarily be better investments but there are certainly lesser quantities of these compared to the regular Topps/Fleer/Donruss rookies.

ORANGE · May 16, 2007 3:47AM

<< Think there are any Bonds in here?

>>

Stupid faux wood borders.... they should have used brushed nickel instead.

colebear · May 16, 2007 4:25AM

<< Heritage Auctions is offering a $1 million payout for the ball. >>

And I bet when they sell it, they will send an expired LOA with it!!!

RedHeart54 · May 19, 2007 6:00AM

Let's see, a million dollar payout for the ball translates to 50% to the IRS and 49% towards the legal fees that will inevitably arise after 999 people sue the ball's new owner because they each claim to have caught the ball first. The rest will go towards medical costs because the owner will need stitches and/or a cast and/or surgery and/or institutional confinement from the physical and psychological injuries occured from getting into the ball scrum. In the end the poor schmuck will be in debt. This is all in addition to whatever scalper price he had to pay to get into the place.

Nope, I don't envy whomever catches the ball a bit.

BobaFett72 · May 19, 2007 6:57AM

be fair the IRS will get about 35 %

and if you can sneak a stun gun into the game..that will cut down the competition going for the ball.

GlynRParson · June 16, 2007 1:30AM

"They did back in the mid-90s; I was using that as an example. "

i was paying full beckett for many many cards in the mid 90s and making a great living when all i did was buy cards for becket t and sell them for more. so no they did not dictate the market even in the mid 90s. They are irrelevant

kmnorton · June 16, 2007 2:08AM

I kind of hope there is some interest considering I just got this from my recent forray into Bowman Sterling.

jomer · June 16, 2007 5:22AM

"Supply will never support any temporary spike. THEN, you factor in the steroid question and you might as well wipe your a$$ with them"

softparade ... TOTALLY AGREE WITH YOU !!!!!!!!!

handyman · June 16, 2007 9:48AM

They always do better when someone is about to break a record. After that they will fall!!! Big time. Remember when he broke the all time Home run record. is Regular topps traded cards were selling for 1,200 each. now they are a 1/10 that.
Sell if you have them. They are going to be worthless. Or you will lose money on them, guaranteed.

handyman · June 16, 2007 9:49AM

People just want to be part of the history he is about to make. And this is the closest thing to it. After that, why buy the card?

Will Bonds cards spike?????????

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