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I think the SMR is a wee bit off on this one...

ElectricPruneElectricPrune Posts: 376 ✭
in PSA Set Registry Forum
1968 Lolich PSA 9 just sold for $1225.03, just a bit higher than listed SMRimage

Which one of you guys are responsible? My $30 bid just missed.
#10 PSA Set for Topps Baseball currently on eBay under seller deeppurple1.

Comments

  • WondoWondo Posts: 2,916 ✭✭✭
    World Series MVP year!!!

    I bet my Mom bid on it! image
    Wondo

  • KalineFanKalineFan Posts: 868
    When I used to buy and sell tons of 1968 Tigers, The Lolich card was one of the toughest cards to find centered.
    They were always 75/25 L/R centering or v/versa. When it was centered, the corners were always worn. Even
    nice 7's used to be tough to find. Norm Cash was very similar. It has been a couple of years since I bought and
    sold 7's and 8's, but I still have complete 1968 Tigers in PSA 6 and PSA 7 image !

    It was a lot of fun for a couple of years. Made some money and built some nice sets and learned a ton
    along the way!

    Tony
    KalineFan
  • OilCanDanOilCanDan Posts: 45 ✭✭
    I'm still pretty new here so excuse me if this is a stooopid question, but I don't understand why the SMR is so out of whack on so many of the lower pop cards. Why is that? I only collect 1959 topps baseball and there are so many low pop cards that simply never, ever, ever sell below say $500 (I'm being generous here) yet the SMR is around $30 or so. This just doesn't make sense to me given that the SMR is supposed to reflect pricing for cards in a specific grade.

    Shouldn't the PSA Price Guide actually reflect true market value? I don't expect them to be able to pinpoint it, but it's so far out of line it's basically useless to me.

    On a side note, this SMR issue actually benefited me in that I bought a '50 Mickey Vernon in PSA 8 for $35 via Buy It Now. That card generally goes for around $300 but it's listed as a $32 card in the SMR. I don't know for sure, but I suspect the seller came up with his price by looking at the SMR. Point OCD. image
  • julen23julen23 Posts: 4,558 ✭✭
    free enterprise system.

    choose to not buy or to buy
    choose to sell or not sell

    julen
    image
    RIP GURU
  • OilCanDanOilCanDan Posts: 45 ✭✭


    << <i>free enterprise system.

    choose to not buy or to buy
    choose to sell or not sell

    julen >>



    I don't get it. What you're saying has nothing at all to do with issuing a guide on estimated values. The decision to buy/sell or not to buy/sell is there whether there's a price guide in place or not. The issue at hand is whether the price guide is based in reality or not. I submit that the SMR is not based on the reality of the market, and I don't understand why that is.
  • theczartheczar Posts: 1,590 ✭✭
    oilcan,
    you are correct that population of cards drive the market as well as popularity of player, his team etc. SMR is only a guide and at times a very poor guide.

    other things go into the prices like the competition of the set. if two or more people with deep pockets are after a card there is no telling where it ends up. i have seen situations where a psa 9 sold for $400 and a few months later it was $30.

    i used to know a bookmaker who never watched the games he had action on. i could not believe that but he said why lose sleep staying up all night wondering how the lakers or sacramento was doing. he couldn't change it by watching. he got the results in the morning and moved on. that was good advice and can apply here. put your best snipe in and get the results in the morning. if you are knowledgeable in the 1959 set you have a good idea of what stuff goes for and you don't need a magazine to help you.
  • MeteoriteGuyMeteoriteGuy Posts: 7,140 ✭✭
    "I'm still pretty new here so excuse me if this is a stooopid question, but I don't understand why the SMR is so out of whack on so many of the lower pop cards."

    "Other things go into the prices like the competition of the set. if two or more people with deep pockets are after a card there is no telling where it ends up. i have seen situations where a psa 9 sold for $400 and a few months later it was $30."

    Bingo!

    No guide can be accurate on the current (eBay) value of low pop commons for the reason noted. Such has more to do with which two guys are wanting it this week and what purchases those bidders had made recently, meaning most of us do not have unlimited budgets. Guides can not predict this.

    However, SMR could be a lot better. That card tracking site I think would be a must for you vintage collectors.

    Mark
    Collecting PSA graded Steve Young, Marcus Allen, Bret Saberhagen and 1980s Topps Cards.
    Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
  • OilCanDanOilCanDan Posts: 45 ✭✭
    Okay, take the 1962 #323 Don Landrum card. This card has been considered "the toughest card to find in PSA 8 of the entire 60's decade". There is ONE PSA 8 and ZERO PSA 9's. According to vintagecardprices.com a PSA 8 sold for $1,221 last week and another sold for $754 on January 30th.

    According to PSA, the SMR on this card in PSA 8 condition is $28.

    Now I recognize that it's impossible to tell if two high rollers are going to bid a card up, but it's just ridiculous that this card is estimated to be worth $28 in PSA 8 condition.

    There is something seriously wrong with this picture. And it's so dramatically wrong that it all but renders the SMR worthless IMO.

    I can't understand how PSA themselves cannot estimate the value of PSA graded cards. It's not like they don't have the population information. If anyone should understand the impact on low populations and the impact on pricing, it's them.
  • GlynRParsonGlynRParson Posts: 364
    Because populations can drastically change very quickly they (PSA/SMR) are hesitant to put huge dollar values on low pop commons it has been that way since the smr came out and i doubt it will change anytime soon.
  • OilCanDanOilCanDan Posts: 45 ✭✭
    The SMR report is not an annual report though. It would be relatively easy for them to make adjustments on a quarterly, if not monthly, basis. Again, they know exactly what the pop report is. I'm not asking for perfection, I'm just asking for an improvement in terms of not listing a card that's never sold for less than $500 as a $28 card.

    That's the bar. I think improvement from that point is pretty easy to accomplish, assuming they cared about accuracy.
  • fiveninerfiveniner Posts: 4,111 ✭✭✭


    << <i>The SMR report is not an annual report though. It would be relatively easy for them to make adjustments on a quarterly, if not monthly, basis. Again, they know exactly what the pop report is. I'm not asking for perfection, I'm just asking for an improvement in terms of not listing a card that's never sold for less than $500 as a $28 card.

    That's the bar. I think improvement from that point is pretty easy to accomplish, assuming they cared about accuracy. >>




    Agree 100%.The same smr prices appear every month,not even worth looking at.PSA should keep up with the trends better than they are now.
    Tony(AN ANGEL WATCHES OVER ME)
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