Looks as though the hobby is starting to bottom out . . .

1960toppsguy

It seems as though more and more of the heavy hitters are cashing in, thus flooding the market. There doesn't seem to be enough interest from the new comers to support the prices being asked for what used to be heavy demand stuff. I'm just glad I am not heavily vested, as it was bound to happen sooner or later. Looks as though the time is here . . .

drewsef

football is hot, what sport are you talking about?

AlanAllen

People keep posting these doom and gloom scenarios, but I'm just not seeing it. Everything I collect is stronger than ever, and I'm getting outbid like crazy. What specifically are you seeing weakness in?

Joe

1960toppsguy

Just look at the high grade examples (PSA-8 and above) in vintage that are stagnant especially baseball, with the exception of Mantle. There are more of these in the market than I have ever seen and not enough interest from the new blood in the hobby. You know what they say about the "band wagon"!

ORANGE

As a "new blood" person I think part of the reason is how expensive these PSA 8 and better are from old days. I look at something like that and think "o.k. well that's just out of my price capability". But I'm happy to get a cheap one for a dollar or two with some rounded corners just to see the card and appreciate the years it has been through. The poor condition cards are still cool to look at. The high grade cards are for people with bucks. But they made so damn many of them why not get a poor condition one. The money comes from up above and the ceiling's getting lower all the time.

mikeschmidt

All you have to do is look at some of the pricing in Mastro and REA auctions to note that there is a very healthy demand throughout the hobby.

Bigslick

I assume you mean topping out, instead of bottoming out. There will always be a market for vintage. When the baby boomers die off, Mantles will most likely get more in line with other HOFers.
Topps just about killed the Retro products(ie. Turkey Red and Heritage) by overproduction.
The new market has move to prospecting. Topps printed 25% more BCDP, than last year. If you have the labor it's still more profitable to break cases, than to sell.
If Topps messes up A&G this year, I think the new card market will be dead for some time. The super high end market is still strong, I think.

JasP24

Must be collecting the wrong sport...Football is ridiculously hot, even in the offseason now...It used to get a little quieter and a little cheaper in the offseason, but much like the real NFL, there is no longer an off-season...lol

When I read posts like this (which pop up fairly regularly) talking about how baseball prices are stagnant or dropping, it just continues to prove what I have believed all along...Football will eventually be the collecting hobby's sport of choice..Most baseball guys, especially the vintage guys, don't believe it, but anyone who has been in the football hobby for 5+ years can attest to how the prices have continued to skyrocket..

I mean even today, for under $2,000 you can own RCs of Jim Brown (PSA 8), Johnny Unitas (PSA 8), Joe Namath (PSA 7), even the holy grail of football cards the 1935 Bronco Nagurski (PSA 2)...Not only that, but most of these cards are lower pop and have shorter print runs than baseball because there weren't as many collector's buying football cards back then...I think its much easier and more affordable to build a collection of legendary rookie cards than baseball will cost you. In the near future, the NFL IS GOING to start marketing its history. On the NFL Network, on DVD's, etc...Replaying old games to bring these old-time legends to today's fans..When that happens, watch the market then...Supply and demand...

Jason

Griffins

I got shut out in both REA and Mastro, for the first time in 8 years. The "bottom" is probably 50% higher than it was a couple of years ago. Every vintage (pre WW2) set I collect is thru the roof. 19th Century is completely untouchable, E cards continue to climb, sets like '38 Goudeys and Sport Kings and Playballs just keep rising.
I'd love to see a bit of a drop so I can finish the sets I could never afford to start if I was beginning today.

cravetopps

<<I got shut out in both REA and Mastro, for the first time in 8 years. The "bottom" is probably 50% higher than it was a couple of years ago. Every vintage (pre WW2) set I collect is thru the roof. 19th Century is completely untouchable, E cards continue to climb, sets like '38 Goudeys and Sport Kings and Playballs just keep rising.
I'd love to see a bit of a drop so I can finish the sets I could never afford to start if I was beginning today. >>.

Have to agree with Griffins on this one. The prewar stuff is just crazy, with very few exceptions and some prewar stuff you can't touch anywhere close to SMR. Even some post war cards/sets are climbing rapidly. I don't know why people keep thinking 52 mantle is the benchmark. There are plenty, and I mean plenty of cards worth far more and appreciating much more rapidly than the mick's 52T.

packman

It depends on what you collect. I have been reduced to a bottom feeder on my pre-WWII sets because the prices have increased beyond my pain threshold. I do not see the market being topped out on those cards. As a result I have been focusing on non-sports cards. However, the prices are increasing everyday to the point that I am being priced out on the pre-WWII non-sports sets. So now, I am researching obscure non-sports sets and trying to complete them before they go up.

scooter729

I've been looking at alternatives (golf and boxing, for example) to feed my pre-war vintage hobby desires, because pre-war baseball is just getting totally too high for my wallet. These other sports are WAY undervalued compared to baseball in my opinion.

Can't speak on modern card prices; not my thing....

RipublicaninMass

Have to agree with Griffins on this one. The prewar stuff is just crazy, with very few exceptions and some prewar stuff you can't touch anywhere close to SMR. Even some post war cards/sets are climbing rapidly. I don't know why people keep thinking 52 mantle is the benchmark. There are plenty, and I mean plenty of cards worth far more and appreciating much more rapidly than the mick's 52T

I have to agree, even the 55 topps set I am always watching has been going higher and higher each year. Psa 8 low pops have been going through the rough and have brought the PSa 7's with them. Some 7's and 8's are going softer, but I doubt there will be a drastic change inthe pop reports over the next 10 years. It seems liek grading is at it's peak for pre-1960 stuff. How many solid NM-MT raw cards are there at card shows? I found maybe 1 or 2 last year, and I WAS looking! I have only been able to be a bottom feeder on my 2 pre-war sets, but I can face the fact it will be a lONG journey. Psa 2 commons over 100$??? Seems ridiculous to me even if it is a horizontal!

envoy98

Pre WWII baseball is always going to stay hot I think. I am a football collector and football, especially pre 1970, is very, very hot right now. I only wish I had spent some money on the other cards I needed 12-18 months ago, because most are 25-100%+ higher now.

TJMAC

I agree about the market remaining strong on Pre-1973 vintage. I have seen prices drop on lates 70's early 80's stuff thanks to 4 sharp corners, but I am fine with it since that is not where most of my money is.

As far as PSA 5 and 6 from the 50's and 6 and 7 from the 60's, which is what I collect, prices have at least stayed relatively the same or have gone up. My collection is not rapidly increasing in value, which is fine because I am still buying all the time. At least they are not dropping by much either. I am in my early 30's and collect mostly players I have never seen. Unlike most other sports, baseball has a deep rich history that will always be attractive to people of all ages. In fact, I would bet many collectors don't even watch modern baseball on a regular basis. There is a certain connection between baseball and our history. I can look at some of my cards from 1959 and be reminded of cultural or historical events that took place even though I did not live through them. Each year is like a time capsule.


I consider myself a collector first and investor a distant second. I just hope the value of my collection stays relatively even.

Griffins

Scooter- Unfortunately a lot of boxing is shooting up as well. PSA 7 T218's were going for about $60-70 18 months ago, they are $250-350 now. Similar rises can be seen in T220's and T9's. Haven't tracked '48 Leafs that long so I can't comment on those.

RipublicaninMass

As far as PSA 5 and 6 from the 50's and 6 and 7 from the 60's, which is what I collect, prices have at least stayed relatively the same or have gone up.

TJ, at least with the 55 set psa 4's and 5's usually go for the cost of grading. I think that is really a shame, and if I had enough $$, I would buy em all! There has to be a price put on the fact that the card has not been altered, and it vitually encapsulated from any further damage.

jeffcbay

The people who say this hobby is dying are the same people who say rock-n-roll is dead. Speak for yourself.

TJMAC

Rip, no disagreement regarding 4's and 5's. I should clarify a little bit, I buy just stars and hall of famers from those years. I have zero cards of what I consider commons in holders. That being said, I have not seen major changes in the pricing. Also, I have never submitted any cards to PSA. All 750+ cards I own I bought already in the holder from Ebay.

I do have some raw vintage commons for sets I am working on i.e. 1959 and 1969. However, I just never saw much sense in buying mid grade commons in holders. That is just my preference.

I base my opinion on buying off of Ebay over the past 7+ years. So, I was not collecting when grading first started.

Thanks for giving me an opportunity to clarify.

Stone193

<< <i>I'm just glad I am not heavily vested >>

This is a hobby.

Talk to your investment advisor or broker about being vested IMO.

Most of the people I know - collect because they love it - if there's a little appreciation down the road?

Icing on the cake - and we're willing to eat the icing and never "have" the cake - if ya get my drift.

mike

storm888

"Most of the people I know - collect because they love it - if there's a little appreciation down the road?
Icing on the cake - and we're willing to eat the icing and never "have" the cake - if ya get my drift."

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Clearly, that is the correct way to view cards,
and most other collectibles.

Sadly, many folks have been sucked into the
notion that cards are an "investment;" they
are not.

jamesryanbell

I enjoyed the hobby a lot more when I could look at a card and mentally grade it for myself, instead of allowing someone I've never met to dictate to me the condition of my card.

The lack of subjective grading (i.e. everything being slabbed) has really screwed things up a lot in my opinion (as well as MANY people's that I know from Houston, whose names you'd recognize instantly). It kept the ability to make great "finds" on the table all the time....even at card shows. Now, values tend to go down the toilet unless you pay some guy you've never met to dictate to you the grade of your card.

Stingray

Grading may have it's and it impact on the hobby good and bad, but for me, it is what got me back into really collecting again (I never really stopped, but just bought packs here and there). I like the thought of at least having a card at a certain grade, that I can live with, knowing it is that. Not having to worry about a raw card that is in EX condition that someone calls NM-MT. I like the fact that my cards are protected and they do look good in those holders.

halosfan

<< <i>People keep posting these doom and gloom scenarios, but I'm just not seeing it. Everything I collect is stronger than ever, and I'm getting outbid like crazy. What specifically are you seeing weakness in?

Joe >>



This is exactly what I am experiencing.

CDsNuts

Let's see-

- PSA 10's of 25 cent cards are routinely going for $50-$100 (Do a PSA 10 search for Robin Yount or Mike Schmidt)
- Card manufacturers out sell their highest end products at $500/pack every year
- Unopened vintage material is through the roof
- Complete sets, both modern and vintage, routinely sell for more than their breakup value
- PSA makes a gazillion dollars per month on people wanting to get their cards graded
- ebay makes a gazillion dollars per month on people who want to sell their cards


I guess what I'm saying is that while some areas of the hobby are down (raw vintage NM and lower, 80s RCs....), the hobby is very strong for the most part.

Lee

ajw

<< <i>Let's see-

- PSA 10's of 25 cent cards are routinely going for $50-$100 (Do a PSA 10 search for Robin Yount or Mike Schmidt)
- Card manufacturers out sell their highest end products at $500/pack every year
- Unopened vintage material is through the roof
- Complete sets, both modern and vintage, routinely sell for more than their breakup value
- PSA makes a gazillion dollars per month on people wanting to get their cards graded
- ebay makes a gazillion dollars per month on people who want to sell their cards


I guess what I'm saying is that while some areas of the hobby are down (raw vintage NM and lower, 80s RCs....), the hobby is very strong for the most part.

Lee >>



To be fair, all that could be true and the market could still be soft. I'm not saying it is, though, as I can't really judge. I can tell you that Will Clark cards are selling for way more than I want them to (and more than many HOF players in the same set).

Buccaneer

What I have seen in the past 12-24 months is generally (for non-lowpop commons) this:

1950s PSA 7 = staying steady, maybe a little down
1950s PSA 8 = still going good but bargains can be found (40-50% of SMR)
1960s PSA 7 = dropping like a rock, most can be had for less then grading fee
1960s PSA 8 = going down as well but slower with great bargains regularly found
1960s PSA 9 = hot
1970s = any grade below a PSA 9 just not worth it
Pre-War = definitely a bull market but how long will it last?

qmayer

<< <i>I just never saw much sense in buying mid grade commons in holders. >>





But there's something to be said for the encapsulation and, more importantly, authentication (for the star cards). I like knowing that my card is not tampered with so in case I do have to sell in the future, I won't lose my shirt for it being trimmed -- as RipublicaninMass pointed out.

Justin

Estil

I disagree. From a mostly buyer's perspective, the time has never been better. At least in terms of 80s/90s stuff, and even 1974-79 is still surprisingly affordable as long as you don't insist on everything being a 9 or 10.

bifff257

<< <i>Pre-War = definitely a bull market but how long will it last? >>







I had this crazy idea I would start picking up some low grade 1915 Cracker jack commons.... Lets just say my bids were not even close to the closing price.

MajorDanby

<< <i>I had this crazy idea I would start picking up some low grade 1915 Cracker jack commons.... Lets just say my bids were not even close to the closing price. >>



Ditto with me. Im currently collecting T206s....and somehow i got into my head that i wanted to get into the 15 CJs. Common T206s in very low grade can go for around 15-30 dollars. CJs in the same condition go for twice that amount, if not more. Right now, I've got a "collection" of 6 CJs. I may be coming to a point where i need to discard the notion of collecting this set and focus my attention of the two sets i am currently working on.

I also tried to get into the T3s...but that set is at it's zenith.

Also thinking of pursuing d304s. Talk about insane prices.

I dont think the market is slowing down, at least with respect to the usual "bullish" sectors of the hobby (pre war, mantle, HOF rookies, rare cards). Will it ever slow down? Likely. But, i cant foresee it happening in the near future. As with some above, I wish the market does slow down so that i can afford to complete the sets i am currently working on AND start some of the sets ive been wishing to get into.

SoFLPhillyFan

I don't know about bottoming out in all areas.

In the past two years I began the 59 set in 7 or better, leaning more toward 8s. After about 150 cards (a few low pop) I may sell off and pick another set, probably 1965.

Their are some heavy hitters in the 59s at the moment and prices are getting crazy. The set is losing it's appeal with me and I may concentrate on the four players I collect and then get into a full set again later.

The 59 price upswing is most likely a phase but my choice is based on how I can continue to build the set without waiting out the deep pocket collectors.

RipublicaninMass

<< Pre-War = definitely a bull market but how long will it last? >>

There is simply not enough cards to go around, therefore supply will always be lower than demand no matter what. Unless less than 50 people WORLDWIDE are not interested in a particular set, which I don't see happening. I sent in a 50 card sub for this vintage special which literally took me YEARS to complile. About half 1915 crakcer jacks and half T205's decent cards, some crossovers, crack out etc all which were pricey and very difficult to find. I really dont care if they come back a PSA 1 they are jsut staying in my persoanl colelction, barring any type of finanical catastrophe. I think the next few months when these subs hit the pop reports and then ebay will determine the future of pre-war. Again, I just dont see that many pre war cards at shows, and I think most of them have already been found and graded.