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WHO gets to 500 HRs first: Frank Thomas or Alex Rodriguez?
jmbkb4
Posts: 2,963
As it stands currently...
Frank Thomas has 491 career HRs
Alex Rodriguez has 478 career HRs
This could be fun to watch. Your thoughts? The Big Hurt has 4 this year so far and A-Rod has 14.
I'd be inclined to favor Frank Thomas (naturally), which is closer and --- I feel --- gaining momentum at the plate. A-Rod is due for a slump.
Frank Thomas has 491 career HRs
Alex Rodriguez has 478 career HRs
This could be fun to watch. Your thoughts? The Big Hurt has 4 this year so far and A-Rod has 14.
I'd be inclined to favor Frank Thomas (naturally), which is closer and --- I feel --- gaining momentum at the plate. A-Rod is due for a slump.
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I say the Big Hurt (491) suffers from his namesake and finds himself on the DL, A-Rod (478) comes back to earth some, Thome (477) continues at his slightly slower pace and Manny (472) over takes um all with a tear of a week vs a team like Tampa Bay.
I mean he’s only hit 2 so far, you know he’s going to get really hot to reach his normals…
I predict they pass the 500 mark in this order:
Manny, A-Rod, Frank, Thome then Sheffield late next year.
Currently searching for 05 Upper Deck Origins & Old Judge Autos #/5 (Feller, Hafner, V.Martinez & Rosen)
and 06 SP Authentic “By The Numbers” Letter Autos (Sabathia, Hafner, Sowers, V.Martinez & Lee)
If i was a betting man I'd pick the guy that needs 9.
Steve
<< <i>Not sure it is so monumental anymore. >>
Why is that? Does it matter for the vintage players but not the modern ones? All the ones discussed are not even rumored to be steroid users. (Well, all but Sheffield.)
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>In this era of artificial enhancements, 500 homers is not nearly as awe-inspiring a feat as it once was, unfortunately. >>
Respectfully, this view is rather shallow and narrow. Hundreds of ethical, hardworking baseball players cannot be indicted because of the sins of a few. When Frank Thomas hits 500 home runs, and A-Rod hits 800, I'll be there cheering them both on. People miss out a lot on the joys in life because they become so jaded and pessimistic.
What greater joy (sports-related) could there be than watching their favorite player reach such a milestone!?!?
Besides there is no credible evidence to say how much steriods alters a persons power. We do know it helps them recover from injuries quicker, but you still have to be able to hit the damn ball. To me, the problem with Bonds is not so much he was on performance enhancers its that he is an a**hole and a racist.
It makes me laugh that the pitchers are not getting the same scrutiny as the hitters. Just look at Clemens? Can you name me another pitchers that seemingly became a more powerful pitcher in his later thirties-early forties? Why does he get a free pass? I am not saying he is on them, but his run of the last 10 years seems to defy logic given the first 150+ years of baseball history.
To answer you question. Thomas will get 500 first.
What greater joy (sports-related) could there be than watching their favorite player reach such a milestone!?!?
I'll agree with you that there are many clean players who deserve all the praise and credit in the world for reaching the 500 HR milestone (Griffey and Arod, for example), but my point is that the milestone of reaching 500 homers just isn't as awe-inspiring as it once was, and the main reason for that is the steroid use of sluggers like Palmiero, Sosa, McGwire, Bonds, et al. It has nothing to do with being "jaded" or "pessimistic", it's just the world we live in and the state of the game right now. To close your eyes and pretend that the steroids issue hasn't affected the public's perception in these cases, is to ignore reality itself.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Today’s game is much different then it ever was, think about all these things:
- There are now 30 teams compared to 16, the pitching is watered down a ton because of it. Teams like TB, KC and Pitt are just begging you to go 8-16 in a series with at least a couple dingers. Guys who would have never sniffed the majors in the past are now 3 or 4 year vets. Pitchers are also not throwing as many innings as before, again increasing the number of hurlers in the game and again decreasing their average talent level.
- Weight training at an all-time high
- Medical staffs much more advanced meaning less time out because of aches and pains and longer careers in turn
- Equipment! Today you are playing with advancements everywhere in the game. No longer is getting hit on the shin a 3 day rest ~ it’s a bruch off the plastic and wait for the next one to crank out of the yard.
- Ballparks! Things have been adjusted a little in some ball-parks to increase the “ohh-ahh” appeal of a game. Like it or not, the game adjusted to stimulate the flash of high scores and power hitters. Also the next one factors in here as well:
- Coors Field!
- The DH. Can’t play the field anymore, no problem ~ we’ll let you rake in the homers as a DH! Not feeling quite up to par ~ be our DH today! This adds at least a couple years to some careers which would have been over long ago, or if not over then regulated to PH and Platoon duties with lots of days off.
Its changed; look at the sheer number of guys either reaching or getting close to 500HR compared to what it used to be. Its still an accomplishment for sure, but its just not what it once was. Guys like Thome, Sheffield, Thomas etc probably wouldn’t have had a chance of reaching 500 back in the day.
Currently searching for 05 Upper Deck Origins & Old Judge Autos #/5 (Feller, Hafner, V.Martinez & Rosen)
and 06 SP Authentic “By The Numbers” Letter Autos (Sabathia, Hafner, Sowers, V.Martinez & Lee)
This is simply a vintage vs. modern bias but being applied to the players instead of the cards. Really, the logic is quite sad.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
The more baseball changes the more it seems to stay the same.
The fact also remains that we have almost 2x as many players today then during pr expansion times.
Steve
By the 50s players were facing the best possible competition ever in the way of pitching, blacks were in the league, Hispanics had been there for a while and pitching was dominating hitting much of the time. Look at the sheer number of HOFers or borderline HOFers from the time as far as pitchers, then start looking at the lesser players they played with, their numbers were still very good! You had like 8-9 pitchers on a team most of the time (4 starters who would throw tons of CGs and some relievers) and it was generally hard to make it into the league as a hurler. 16 teams, only 154 games ~ it was difficult to hit enough HRs to reach 500! 60-80 isnt much different, few more teams and of course more games but it was still quite the feet.
But how do you expect to have only elite pitchers when the number of teams has doubled plus each carry more pitchers? How does the DH help pitchers today? How do the park adjustments help pitchers? How does Coors Field help pitchers? How does weight training help pitchers since so many of them cant pitch but once a week and many will have major surgery often times because of that lifting? How do longer careers for power hitters help the pitchers?
None of that applies to pitchers in any way it would help outside of maybe the medical, but the weight lifting and lack of pitching high amounts of innings is what leads to them needing that medical. Todays pitchers are babies in comparison to the guys of years past. (well most at least, not all)
I cant see one thing which would say its harder to hit HRs today and many, many which say its much, much easier. How can you say otherwise, or imply I'm biased or my information is sad when I give things supporting my claim? If I made a blanket statement which I couldnt prove then i would understand, the things I said though are very real and have made it much easier for guys to A) hit HRs and
Currently searching for 05 Upper Deck Origins & Old Judge Autos #/5 (Feller, Hafner, V.Martinez & Rosen)
and 06 SP Authentic “By The Numbers” Letter Autos (Sabathia, Hafner, Sowers, V.Martinez & Lee)
The fact remains that five of the current top 10 all time home run leaders, or 50%, are new to the list over the last five years. That's staggering.
Edit: To put the above statement in perspective, from 1972-1985, an almost 15-season stretch, only ONE player (Willie McCovey) cracked the top 10 by exceeding 500 home runs..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>All one has to do is go back to the 66-71 era and see that just as many guys reached 500 homers then as are doing it now.
The more baseball changes the more it seems to stay the same. >>
That’s not true. Within the last 10 years these are the players who have at least 450:
+ 700 Bonds(a)
+ 550 Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, Griffey(a)
450-500 Murray, McGriff, Winfield, Canseco, Thomas(a), A-Rod(a), Thome(a), Manny(a), Sheffield(a), Bagewell (missed by 1 so I included him)
That’s a ton! 15 who were stars in the league 10 years ago! Now, since there have only been 32 guys reach the 450 mark I ask how it’s the same?
I mean think about that, nearly 50% of the 450+ HR guys were all in the league in 1997.
Then think about the fact that guys like Piazza, Delgado, Chipper Jones, Giambi, Andrew Jones, Vlad, Todd Helton, and even Sexson still having a chance to reach that mark.
Considering you could be less than 25 and be able to remember watching ½ of the 450+ HR guys, then there is a big difference in the game…
Currently searching for 05 Upper Deck Origins & Old Judge Autos #/5 (Feller, Hafner, V.Martinez & Rosen)
and 06 SP Authentic “By The Numbers” Letter Autos (Sabathia, Hafner, Sowers, V.Martinez & Lee)
Another thread about modern players or collecting derailed.
That was cool
Another thread about modern players or collecting derailed.
Cheer up Jimbo, I'm sure your Frank Thomas NNOF card will still go for big bucks!!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
/s/ JackWESQ
<< <i>Oh yea, well I walked to school uphill both ways back in the gool ol' days!!!
Another thread about modern players or collecting derailed. >>
Derailed? You asked why no one had much interest in the thread you started and people just replied that it didn’t hold the weight it once did ~ that’s not derailing anything, just a failed topic. You yourself took part in most of the “is it easier now” topic though, so if you do feel it shouldn’t have gone that way then how is it our fault?
And it’s really not about saying "old" vs "new", it’s just a fact about something that has changed over time. Just like 50 in a season doesn’t hold much weight where I can remember in 1990 how everyone was amazed that Fielder could hit 50HR since it had only been done once in the previous 25 years! Once in 25 years ~ that’s a long time! Since Fielder there have been 21 such 50HR seasons ~ again more than 50% of the all-time list. If you look at the top 100 HR seasons (46+ HR), 52 of them are since 1990 ~ that means over nearly 100 years of the game there were only 48 seasons of 46+ HRs to spread across guys like Mays, Aaron, Ruth, Killebrew, Mantle, Robinson and countless others. Thats amazing!
There was a time when HRs were really special, now it’s just a part of the game. Its obvious you don’t want that to be the case, but it is and 450+ or 50+ just don’t mean as much any more at all.
Because of that you may want to be prepared for people to say “500 isnt that special” when you ask why no one wants to talk about it…
Currently searching for 05 Upper Deck Origins & Old Judge Autos #/5 (Feller, Hafner, V.Martinez & Rosen)
and 06 SP Authentic “By The Numbers” Letter Autos (Sabathia, Hafner, Sowers, V.Martinez & Lee)
<< <i> Oh yea, well I walked to school uphill both ways back in the gool ol' days!!!
Another thread about modern players or collecting derailed.
Cheer up Jimbo, I'm sure your Frank Thomas NNOF card will still go for big bucks!!
A small post from a small mind.
Another thread about modern players or collecting derailed.
Cheer up Jimbo, I'm sure your Frank Thomas NNOF card will still go for big bucks!! >>
A small post from a small mind.
Ooooh, wow, what a comeback!
Methinks you doth protest too much!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
That is a great way to prove a point trader, use a totally different number!
Steve
I'm sure I can find a time period where 50% of the total could be reached too.
Also, and w/o looking between your given chosen time period did 30 guys reach 400?
One of the reasons we are seeing more people reach 500 is simply because there are more teams.
In the era I mentioned 7 players reached 500 homers. at the time only 3 or 4 had reached the milestone!
In all of baseball history 20 guys have done it!
We have had this discussion before, yes steroids has played a part in the upswing, so has prolly 20 other reasons too.
Steve
<< <i>I did not say 450 I said 500.
That is a great way to prove a point trader, use a totally different number!
Steve >>
I only did 450 because some of the guys havent hit 500 yet ~ it wasnt just a way to try and prove a point at all. The same point still stands weather you use 600, 500, 400 or whatever ~ more people are hitting a lot more HRs then ever before. Can you find a year in the past where a couple of them were all in the league? Probably, but I bet you cant find a time where 15 450+ HR hitters were all playing unless you use 1997…
And in reply to the post you have below to someone else, it really doesnt have much to do with more hitters in the league ~ it has to do with more pitchers in the league and all the other things I listed for the improved HR rate. To say its just because there are more teams allowing there to be more HR hitters is kind of foolish, you think the best talent just wouldnt be playing if there were fewer teams? See, personally I think its the scrubs that would be out of a job...
Currently searching for 05 Upper Deck Origins & Old Judge Autos #/5 (Feller, Hafner, V.Martinez & Rosen)
and 06 SP Authentic “By The Numbers” Letter Autos (Sabathia, Hafner, Sowers, V.Martinez & Lee)
Has baseball really changed much? Look at just about any olympic sport and see how long the olympic or world record has stood. Usually not very long and just waiting for another athlete to break it. Better shoes and attire only take you so far. Athletes these days have better training regimes than ever. Throw in advanced sports medicine (everything from Tommy Johns to arthroscopic knee surgery) and you have a recipe for strength and longevity. I don't buy the arguement league pitching is watered down given how baseball has opened the door wide open to Asia and Latin America. Pichers that pop an arm are no longer forced to retire with TJ surgery and there are many reconstructed arms out there throwing well right now. The pitching game has certainly changed where teams make far more use of the bullpen then in years gone by. A complete game is a rarity these days as teams try to limit the number of pitches thrown in an attempt to keep the starter healthy. Add all this up (despite expansion) and one could argue pitching is better than it used to be. Hitting 500 HR is still a feat. You would need ten 50 HR seasons to get there or tweleve and a half 40 HR seasons. That kind of consistency is something to admire.
Exactly. That statement just goes back to my original point, which is that the 500 HR milestone just isn't as remarkable or as awe-inspiring as it once was. Because of steroids and because of many other factors, hitting 500 homers just isn't what it used to be!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
That is simply because we have more teams.
Back in the day we had 16, today we have 30.
that is almost 2x as many.
It is all about perspective.
Steve
I hope it is Alex .
I was hoping he hit that grandslam the other day !
<< <i><< Oh yea, well I walked to school uphill both ways back in the gool ol' days!!!
Another thread about modern players or collecting derailed.
Cheer up Jimbo, I'm sure your Frank Thomas NNOF card will still go for big bucks!! >>
A small post from a small mind.
Ooooh, wow, what a comeback!
Methinks you doth protest too much!
Grote,
At least get the quote right, idiot.
"thou"
Here, this may give you an idea:
1955 AL ERA ~ 3.96 / NL ERA ~ 4.04
1965 AL ERA ~ 3.46 / NL ERA ~ 3.54
1975 AL ERA ~ 3.78 / NL ERA ~ 3.62
1985 AL ERA ~ 4.15 / NL ERA ~ 3.59
1995 AL ERA ~ 4.71 / NL ERA ~ 4.18
2005 AL ERA ~ 4.35 / NL ERA ~ 4.22*
*(05 is a bit of a fluke, 04 AL was 4.63 and 06 AL was 4.56 ~ similarly 04 NL was 4.30 and 06 NL was 4.49)
~ Those 1965 AL ERAs over 162 is 561 Runs allowed. Now even if we take the fluke lower 2005 AL ERA it equals out to 705 R allowed pre team. Now if we take a more normal recent AL ERA like in 06 that number is 739 Runs allowed… An extra 170ish runs allowed Per Team tells me pitching might be down a bit.
1955 HR per IP AL ~ .087 / NL ~ .115 (that’s not a fluke ~ mid 50s NL had sluggers!)
1965 HR per IP AL ~ .094 / NL ~ .090
1975 HR per IP AL ~ .085 / NL ~ .071
1985 HR per IP AL ~ .108 / NL ~ .081
1995 HR per IP AL ~ .120 / NL ~ .106
2005 HR per IP AL ~ .121 / NL ~ .112
~ A team is set to play 162G of 9IN ball ~ ie 1458IP. Now, those 1965 AL HR rates over 1458IP mean that teams would average 137HR allowed ~ in 2005 its 163HR. An extra 26HR allowed per team in the league is a lot in my mind… If you have 30 teams that’s 780 extra HRs hit a year, and I imagine seeing about an extra 780 HRs each year is pretty much why we see so many players with such high career numbers…
1955 CG / G AL ~ .294 / NL ~ .313
1965 CG / G AL ~ .199 / NL ~ .256
1975 CG / G AL ~ .325 / NL ~ .220
1985 CG / G AL ~ .159 / NL ~ .137
1995 CG / G AL ~ .075 / NL ~ .066
2005 CG / G AL ~ .037 / NL ~ .040
~ Ok, 1955 you might see your staff with 3 CG for every 10 Games pitched, now you’re lucky if you see it average out to 6 CG per team a year…
I see those as big changes and a definite sign that pitching isn’t what it used to be. You can see a dramatic difference in ERA, HR/IP and CG/G showing that pitchers are not pitching nearly as much while giving up way more Runs and way more HRs (Other than the strange 55NL HR/IP totals of course ~ but it didn’t effect the ERA next to the ALs so hitting was still down)
Actually the 60s also stand out as the strongest pitching years there were, pitchers were throwing tons of innings while giving up very little in the way of R or HR ~ making the numbers of Mays, Aaron etc even more amazing and in contrast the numbers of guys today look a little less impressive.
1995 and 2005 are of course the low points; more teams mean many, many more pitchers and in turn the quality is no where near what it once was. Where if you have on average 60 extremely solid pitchers each year, spread it out over 30 teams and that’s only 2 per team. Now spread it out over like 16 teams like in the past and you all of a sudden have 3.75 a team. If those extremely strong pitchers also happen to be pitching in like 55, 65 or even 75 they will be throwing many more innings ~ meaning you don’t need as full of a staff! In contrast, today you have maybe 2 extremely strong pitchers on a staff where you average only about 5 innings and you need to make up the rest by having hurlers take up nearly ½ your roster; depleting talent even more.
4 of 8 Pitchers being extremely strong or 2 of 11 being extremely strong ~ which sounds more intimidating?
Hitting is much easier to fill in, pitching is and has always been pretty hard to find. Need a hitter and you always have someone like Russell Branyan around who honestly has no business still being in the league, but there are enough jobs for everyone today with the extra rosters ~ pitchers on the other hand come and go yearly as teams look to find guys who can keep the ERA at least somewhere under 6. And how many guys blow their arms out because they cant handle throwing 5-6 innings every 5th day? That wasn’t quite the case a few years back ~ a time where there wasn’t the need for all the surgeries players have the luxury of today. (I do want to point out that this is actually a problem that starts in little league and High School though and continues throughout a players career ~ its not the pitchers fault they cant go the distance really, it’s the coddling in place today)
Like I said early on, the game has changed in many ways to the hitters’ advantage, and it shows in the numbers. Does it take away from hitters today? A little, but it more means those of the past are even more amazing! 500 HR is a feat, one which will always be special ~ the difference is if you put it up in 1965 it means a lot more than putting that same number up now. If you were doing it in 65 you were so far ahead of everyone else in the game and did it for a long time, now its kind of just being a bit better than everyone else for a long time (ie, kinda like Thome who will get 500 ~ I love him but I don’t consider him one of the top players of all time by any means)
Oh, and like LarryAllen I say all that with or without steroids, that was never a factor that I mentioned… I mean it hasnt changed even with stricter testing, showing it might not have had the effect people claim it did.
Shea
Currently searching for 05 Upper Deck Origins & Old Judge Autos #/5 (Feller, Hafner, V.Martinez & Rosen)
and 06 SP Authentic “By The Numbers” Letter Autos (Sabathia, Hafner, Sowers, V.Martinez & Lee)
At least get the quote right, idiot.
Wow, very mature, the name calling and all. That doesn't change the fact, however, that it's much easier to hit home runs in today's game, and thus reaching 500 home runs isn't as special or as awe-inspiring as it used to be, which was my original point in this thread way back when.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Grote,
At least get the quote right, idiot.
Wow, very mature, the name calling and all. That doesn't change the fact, however, that it's much easier to hit home runs in today's game, and thus reaching 500 home runs isn't as special or as awe-inspiring as it used to be, which was my original point in this thread way back when.
Misster Grote,
your repeatedly stating this opinion does not make it true.
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
Mark
Raw: Tony Gonzalez (low #'d cards, and especially 1/1's) and Steve Young.
Steve
Sosa will get to 600 within the next 2 weeks.
Sheffield will never make it to 500. This is his last season. He'll be lucky to crank out 20 this year, and that's only if the manager is dumb enough to give him the at-bats to do it. I also predict Griffey may call it quits after this season, unless something drastic happens and soon--even if he does play another year, even 600 homers seems out of reach for him at this point. Thome might get to 500 by September, if he comes off the DL and doesn't get hurt again.
I think it will be closer than many thought. Frank is not having a very good season.
Sheffield will never make it to 500. This is his last season. He'll be lucky to crank out 20 this year
he may crank 20 by the AS break I think he is at 18
He's a beast .
Naturally I see the difference in the numbers , But I have always gone for the underdog .
P.S. Not for nuthin . . . I still feel 500 dingers is quite a milestone and it is definitely exciting to watch .
I hope A-Rod does it this season , what is this his 14th season ?
That would be great , I think the guy is a class act .
Dimes: 54S, 53P, 50P, 49S, 45D+S, 44S, 43D, 41S, 40D+S, 39D+S, 38D+S, 37D+S, 36S, 35D+S, all 16-34's
Quarters: 52S, 47S, 46S, 40S, 39S, 38S, 37D+S, 36D+S, 35D, 34D, 32D+S
74 Topps: 37,38,46,47,48,138,151,193,210,214,223,241,256,264,268,277,289,316,435,552,570,577,592,602,610,654,655
1997 Finest silver: 115, 135, 139, 145, 310
1995 Ultra Gold Medallion Sets: Golden Prospects, HR Kings, On-Base Leaders, Power Plus, RBI Kings, Rising Stars
Here's to seeing Alex in Angel Red next year!