I am making a modern rarity, who wants in??
N8
Posts: 505
Here is a hypothetical question that I have been pondering. It is a little 'out there' but seems possible (or not?).
Do you think that a large group of commited investors could take an everyday circulated piece and through mass hoarding turn it into a 'tough date'? Obviously this would take a lot of people being in the same boat and years to pull off, but I think it could happen. Here are the numbers I came up with:
-Lets say that the number of actual users on the forum is 20,000
-The 1997D Jefferson Nickel (according to pcgs) had a mintage of 466,640,000
-To make this easier on those involved, each of the 20,000 users get one non-user friend to join
-So, you have 40,000 people hoarding at face value for a couple of years. On average each person will need to have 11,666 nickels ($583.30 invested) to get every last one. Obviously getting them all is not possible but it could be close.
-Now they are getting scarce in the markets and people can start unloading them for a premium. I think it would be important to wait a good 5 to 10 years to make sure their availabity to others dries up, then everyone could sell a roll a month at _XFace and pass down the remainder. Or who knows maybe it will then be legal to melt coins again and we could destroy half?
-To really get things going a phony "Barge With Million Nickel Hoard Sinks in the Pacific" story would be perfect.
As you can tell I am very bored at work and have coins on the mind (going to my first show today). Has anyone else ever pondered this possibility?
Do you think that a large group of commited investors could take an everyday circulated piece and through mass hoarding turn it into a 'tough date'? Obviously this would take a lot of people being in the same boat and years to pull off, but I think it could happen. Here are the numbers I came up with:
-Lets say that the number of actual users on the forum is 20,000
-The 1997D Jefferson Nickel (according to pcgs) had a mintage of 466,640,000
-To make this easier on those involved, each of the 20,000 users get one non-user friend to join
-So, you have 40,000 people hoarding at face value for a couple of years. On average each person will need to have 11,666 nickels ($583.30 invested) to get every last one. Obviously getting them all is not possible but it could be close.
-Now they are getting scarce in the markets and people can start unloading them for a premium. I think it would be important to wait a good 5 to 10 years to make sure their availabity to others dries up, then everyone could sell a roll a month at _XFace and pass down the remainder. Or who knows maybe it will then be legal to melt coins again and we could destroy half?
-To really get things going a phony "Barge With Million Nickel Hoard Sinks in the Pacific" story would be perfect.
As you can tell I am very bored at work and have coins on the mind (going to my first show today). Has anyone else ever pondered this possibility?
First get the knowledge, then the coins.
0
Comments
<< <i>Sounds very unethical and immoral. >>
Count me in!
I hoard all my change anyway, I'm sure there are some 97-D's in there.
You would want most of the examples to be in sock drawers before you attempt to sell off your rolls.
JJ
I'd be game for the plan though.
<< <i>Sounds very unethical and immoral. >>
I will admit that the shipwreck lie would be immoral (I was just joking) but not the rest of the scheme - it simply is a matter of controlling the supply to increase the demand.
<< <i>With everyone selling 1 roll a month you'll still have 40,000 rolls entering the market every month. That's a lot. The price will surely drop. >>
Yes I thought of that but you aren't supposed to think that fair into the equation...
How about everyone sells 5 a year or something until the price drops back to normal, then simply spend the rest.
<< <i>I think you'd be a lot more successful picking one of the SHQs, say Delaware and removing all of those from circulation. >>
The problem with that is, most of them have already been removed from circulation do to the books that about every other kid in America is filling up. I don't even remember the last time I recieved a Delaware in change.
JJ
The Maddy Rae Collection
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<< <i>
<< <i>Sounds very unethical and immoral. >>
I will admit that the shipwreck lie would be immoral (I was just joking) but not the rest of the scheme - it simply is a matter of controlling the supply to increase the demand. >>
An argument could be made that controlling the suplly to increase demand (and prices) is unethical and immoral.
To get 20,000 people to agree on a sale date can be accomplished. To get 20,000 people to abide by the decision would be impossible in my opinion.
<< <i>An argument could be made that controlling the suplly to increase demand (and prices) is unethical and immoral. >>
Isn't that what speculators of modern Mint products do?
<< Isn't that what speculators of modern Mint products do? >>
<< <i>
<< <i>An argument could be made that controlling the suplly to increase demand (and prices) is unethical and immoral. >>
Isn't that what speculators of modern Mint products do? >>
I don't know, you'd have to talk to some to find out and if it is it doesn't mean it's not unethical and immoral.
<< <i>It defies the law of "stupid people in large numbers" that you could control that situation long enough to make your financial killing. >>
Well so far we are only 39,995 people short of hitting that large number, getting closer though
<< <i>I don't think you'd be able to buy up every 1997-D nickel, but I think it'd be not-too-difficult to acquire most of the certified examples, causing them to dry up in the market. Prices would go up (limited supply), but I'm not sure how you could profit from it -- once you start releasing your hoard, the prices would quickly fall back to realistic levels. >>
I think that if the selling was closely regulated for a while we could turn a nice profit before unloading the rest at cost, and yes that is a pretty big 'if'.
the cabal removes more coins from the population they start getting much more difficult
to find. You'd never get close to getting them all even if members didn't start dropping
out and spending or selling those they had already accumulated. To get an idea of how
difficult it would be try setting aside all the '68-D quarters you see for a while. You'd get
very few because there are only about 10% as many so they are harder to find. As you
remove them from circulation it will have no discernable impact because of the size of the
population. Even with 40,000 people it wouldn't have much impact and many people just
wouldn't find one for weeks on end.
There is some of this hoarding going on now apparently. The scarcer dates of many of the
circulating issues are getting even scarcer. But this is caused by the actions of large num-
bers of people.
cladking - yes I agree that there are flaws, but, your example of the 68-D quarter actually supports this idea. I did a search of closed auctions for the '68D and found 9. Only one was for a BU roll and it pulled over 4X face value... I see what you're saying about how after most issues have been found it would be hard to get any from circulation - but thats the point. After a few years of emptying most of those in circulation, people filling collections would have to pay just to get one in any grade.
Great replies so far from both sides of the coin! Any more
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
i have thought about doing this with a low print comic book
from 1979. problem is, it will take a lifetime to find > 50% of them.
money was not the problem...