<< <i>When most of the collectors have exited, you have to be concerned about dealers and their markets and networks. It is not different this time.
Coxe, isn't that true for any segment of the market? Marketmakers didn't save classic collectors in the 89 crash. I see the parallel in the NCLT market, as pricing may be driven by investors. I don't believe that's true for coins. JMO >>
Absolutely. Any coins that got ahead of themselves in the crash were and those that are overpriced now are in a perilous situation when the market does run out of steam. I would be particularly wary of anything that is driven by investors and promoters, including the biggest pimp of them all -- the US Mint. (Might get me on a Do-Not-Fly list name calling them I guess.) Market makers were indeed part of the problem in the last crash too. For a good decade after it, without a dealer network, there wasn't a lot of liquidity. I was a huge buyer in that period myself though. It was amazing the contrast. You cannot find decent material these days for the most part. During the down market, except for major rarities, nice material was around but there weren't a lot of retail buyers and premiums for nice for the grade pieces were largely absent. Some folks clearly positioned themselves very well for the ramp up in the market.
I think that whole MS-70 hysteria is a bit nuts, and I personally believe people that buy into it, are going to be hurt badly in the future. I think slabbing and paying big money for NCLT is throwing good money at bad. With that said I have no problem is collect Tom, Dick or Harry chooses to do that, and I am happy they have found something that makes them happy. I think on here, we often lose sight of things.. their is a group of serious and dedicated modern collectors, that don't care what the plastic says. They can tell you that 69 quarters look like crap, or 71 Nickels are as likely to be FS as not. But as a collector of moderns it does upset me that some choose to bash the whole segment of the market, becuase of some risky parts of it. As for my NCLT, its all in OGP and will stay that way. I purchase them knowing full well that in a couple years on nearly everyone of them they will be worth less then issue price.
"I am sorry you are unhappy with the care you recieved, is their anything I can do for you right now, how about some high speed lead therapy?" - A qoute from my wife's nursing forum
"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." – Thomas Jefferson
Comments
<< <i>When most of the collectors have exited, you have to be concerned about dealers and their markets and networks. It is not different this time.
Coxe, isn't that true for any segment of the market? Marketmakers didn't save classic collectors in the 89 crash. I see the parallel in the NCLT market, as pricing may be driven by investors. I don't believe that's true for coins. JMO >>
Absolutely. Any coins that got ahead of themselves in the crash were and those that are overpriced now are in a perilous situation when the market does run out of steam. I would be particularly wary of anything that is driven by investors and promoters, including the biggest pimp of them all -- the US Mint. (Might get me on a Do-Not-Fly list name calling them I guess.) Market makers were indeed part of the problem in the last crash too. For a good decade after it, without a dealer network, there wasn't a lot of liquidity. I was a huge buyer in that period myself though. It was amazing the contrast. You cannot find decent material these days for the most part. During the down market, except for major rarities, nice material was around but there weren't a lot of retail buyers and premiums for nice for the grade pieces were largely absent. Some folks clearly positioned themselves very well for the ramp up in the market.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
"I am sorry you are unhappy with the care you recieved, is their anything I can do for you right now, how about some high speed lead therapy?" - A qoute from my wife's nursing forum
"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." – Thomas Jefferson
That's the number of 2006 20th Anniversary GAE sets produced.
It's also the number of existing Dahlonega gold coins, all denominations, dates, and grades combined.