Speculation Within Speculation In Graded Cards
JackWESQ
Posts: 2,133 ✭✭✭
On a certain level, there is a certain degree of speculation involved in buying and selling baseball cards. Honestly, who can really say that a card purchased today will go up in value tomorrow. And if it does, who can really say what caused it? But even beyond this, I've noticed what I'll term "speculation within speculation" within the graded card industry.
I'm sure only Dr. James Beckett, the Director of the CIA, a couple choice physicists at NASA and UCLA Professor Terence Tao (you should look this guy up) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terence_Tao) know the precise calculations involved in arriving at a BGS overall grade, but there are some overall grades that are easy to figure out, e.g. subgrades of 9, 9 8.5. and 8.5 will result in a overall of 8.5; but knock one of those 8.5's to a 9 and you get an overall grade of 9.
With this in mind, I've noticed an increased amount of listings on ebay where the card's name and grade is identified, but the seller also states something to the effect of, "only 0.5 from a BGS ___!" or where the subgrades are NOT listed on the front of the slab and the seller states "old BGS grade...much stricter grading standards!" This isn't limited to BGS either. Recently, I had a potential buyer email me and ask if the PSA case had a hologram on the back of the slab. As we all know, at some point PSA stopped putting the hologram on the back of the card and replaced it with "A Division of Collectors Universe NASDAQ: CLCT." (Perhaps an innocuous way to promote their stock?) The buyer belived that "hologram" cards were graded with stricter guidelines. And then I read once that cards with serial numbers starting with "81 _ _ _ _ _ _" are graded in bulk, perhaps implying the cards are held to a lower standard? And how about the discussion about the infamous "314 _ _ _ _ _" "grader of death." To this extent, who cares about reality? Perception is reality. If a buyer believes a card with worth more because of whatever reason, regardless of whether the perception is in fact correct, he'll bid accordingly.
We all know that cracking and resubmitting is prevalent in the hobby and on a certain level, the whole concept is disturbing. A card graded a 9 SHOULD, if cracked out, be graded a 9 each and every subsequent time. But then again, there are a lot of things that SHOULD happen, but don't. I accept this. So is it unreasonable for a 8 to become a 9 or a 9 to become a 10? Probably not. We're all human and make mistakes. But how about an 8 becoming a 10? A bit more difficult to comprehend. I recall reading somewhere in this board where an 8 became a 10.
And then there's the issue of how BGS 10's become so prevalent when once, for a very long time, it was beyond difficult to get even one BGS 10 SUBGRADE. I'm not going to touch that! Now, I'm going to equate buying cards to something more infinitely more complicated, e.g. stocks, but I've been "on ebay" for almost eight (8) years and feel I know just barely enough to...make a profit? no...how about to not lose my shirt on a purchase. But for a person just entering (or re-entering) the hobby, I couldn't even begin to explain all the intricacies of buying and selling cards on ebay. Or what to look for, or how to spot a good deal. Or how to avoid overpaying for a card.
The days of simple collecting are long gone and I have to admit, I am a bit saddened by it.
/s/ JackWESQ
I'm sure only Dr. James Beckett, the Director of the CIA, a couple choice physicists at NASA and UCLA Professor Terence Tao (you should look this guy up) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terence_Tao) know the precise calculations involved in arriving at a BGS overall grade, but there are some overall grades that are easy to figure out, e.g. subgrades of 9, 9 8.5. and 8.5 will result in a overall of 8.5; but knock one of those 8.5's to a 9 and you get an overall grade of 9.
With this in mind, I've noticed an increased amount of listings on ebay where the card's name and grade is identified, but the seller also states something to the effect of, "only 0.5 from a BGS ___!" or where the subgrades are NOT listed on the front of the slab and the seller states "old BGS grade...much stricter grading standards!" This isn't limited to BGS either. Recently, I had a potential buyer email me and ask if the PSA case had a hologram on the back of the slab. As we all know, at some point PSA stopped putting the hologram on the back of the card and replaced it with "A Division of Collectors Universe NASDAQ: CLCT." (Perhaps an innocuous way to promote their stock?) The buyer belived that "hologram" cards were graded with stricter guidelines. And then I read once that cards with serial numbers starting with "81 _ _ _ _ _ _" are graded in bulk, perhaps implying the cards are held to a lower standard? And how about the discussion about the infamous "314 _ _ _ _ _" "grader of death." To this extent, who cares about reality? Perception is reality. If a buyer believes a card with worth more because of whatever reason, regardless of whether the perception is in fact correct, he'll bid accordingly.
We all know that cracking and resubmitting is prevalent in the hobby and on a certain level, the whole concept is disturbing. A card graded a 9 SHOULD, if cracked out, be graded a 9 each and every subsequent time. But then again, there are a lot of things that SHOULD happen, but don't. I accept this. So is it unreasonable for a 8 to become a 9 or a 9 to become a 10? Probably not. We're all human and make mistakes. But how about an 8 becoming a 10? A bit more difficult to comprehend. I recall reading somewhere in this board where an 8 became a 10.
And then there's the issue of how BGS 10's become so prevalent when once, for a very long time, it was beyond difficult to get even one BGS 10 SUBGRADE. I'm not going to touch that! Now, I'm going to equate buying cards to something more infinitely more complicated, e.g. stocks, but I've been "on ebay" for almost eight (8) years and feel I know just barely enough to...make a profit? no...how about to not lose my shirt on a purchase. But for a person just entering (or re-entering) the hobby, I couldn't even begin to explain all the intricacies of buying and selling cards on ebay. Or what to look for, or how to spot a good deal. Or how to avoid overpaying for a card.
The days of simple collecting are long gone and I have to admit, I am a bit saddened by it.
/s/ JackWESQ
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Comments
even begin to explain all the intricacies of buying and selling cards on ebay. "
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That is a fact.
Interesting thoughts. I don't disagree with you, but I have found grading similar to real estate or art appraisal. It is an art rather than a science based upon training and experience. This big difference in card grading is the narrow scale. Real Estate appraisers are often given a latitude on their work. A home could be appraised at $250k-$270k and no one bats an eye. The difference in a higher grade in PSA can mean 5x or more the price than the lower grade, thus the tempation to crack and resubmit until you get the great you think you deserve.
Theorhetically a cracked out and resubmitted card should get the same grade over and over again. Theorhetically a baseball umpire should have the same strike zone on each pitch. And every umpire should have the same strike zone. We all know that not to be the case and you are dealing with human mistakes and money in the card owners pocket.
If a company is intentionally changing their grading standards then that should be a concern for the buyer.
As a buyer experience is the lesson that helps us in life. I have made tons of mistakes buying and judging raw cards to have them graded.
I only hope to make fewer errs as life goes on.
6 -> 7 -> 8
7 -> 8 -> 9
8 -> 9
9 -> 8
9 -> 10
And I have had...
8 -> 10 (1991 Upper Deck #627 Football)
7.5>7>8
7>8
6>5
I think it is tougher to get the bumps on vintage
<< <i>
The days of simple collecting are long gone and I have to admit, I am a bit saddened by it.
>>
Hold on there. I'm "collecting" just fine, thank you very much. I got a package of 15 Will Clark cards in the mail yesterday. Total cost: under $20, including shipping. Four of the cards feature Will on another player's card. I didn't even know these existed until about a month ago, so I was pretty excited to get them!
Don't let someone else's perception of value and collectability impact your enjoyment of the hobby!
Edited to say that eBay, the Beckett marketplace and the internet in general have been an absolute goldmine for me. I'm now able to find rare and unusual Will Clark stuff I never knew existed, much less had a chance to actually acquire. I sometimes see a bubble mailer in my mailbox ten days in a row, and that's pretty awesome. They rarely cost me more than $10 a piece, unless there are multiple cards inside.
On the darker side, I also think that grading - and the extreme premiums that Gem Mint brings, has also attracked those that are just looking for the big $'s. As it also brings out the greedy part of many of us who reallt like the collecting, but cannot resist the temptation of hitting that low pop 10 that could bring hundreds or thousands. Then, it is no longer about the card, it's about the money. I find that part a little sad.
It's gone from 500 ct Dwight Gooden rookie lots, to BGS 9's and 10's.
I don't like the crackout game (although everyone has done it).
But, getting high grades is still, very very tough.
Look at the Lionel Carter collection in Mastro. Those were childhood cards, taken straight from packs, protected from the elements. They were as cared for as well as could be, but look how rare the really high grades are (9's and 10's).
I think the fear from the crackout game is bigger than the reality. BGS is a different story, but for PSA, SGC collectors, the high grades are still very tough.
I only collect his cards.Check my sig line for cards I need . Remember check my sig line
ON ITS WAY TO NEWPORT BEACH, CA 92658
<< <i>There's always been some speculation.
It's gone from 500 ct Dwight Gooden rookie lots, to BGS 9's and 10's.
I don't like the crackout game (although everyone has done it).
But, getting high grades is still, very very tough.
Look at the Lionel Carter collection in Mastro. Those were childhood cards, taken straight from packs, protected from the elements. They were as cared for as well as could be, but look how rare the really high grades are (9's and 10's).
I think the fear from the crackout game is bigger than the reality. BGS is a different story, but for PSA, SGC collectors, the high grades are still very tough. >>
For modern Cards, I find it easier to get a psa 10 than a bgs 9.5...