OT: John Smoltz

hotmush

Just came across a whack of Smoltz rookies in a box (all kinds).
Out of curiosity, I looked at his stats at MLB.com.
Any opinions: does he get into the hall?
Smoltz Career Stats

colebear

I would say no, he falls into the Bert Blyleven category. Great pitcher, but no.

CDsNuts

Unfortunately for him, he'll always be compared to Maddux and Glavine. In my mind, Maddux is a mortal lock, Glavine should get in after a year or two, and Smoltz doesn't get in at all. Although tragically, it's apparent that if he played his whole career as a closer, he'd probably be the Eckersley of this era (55, 45, 44 saves in his only three seasons as a closer). He has had a nice career up until this point, and was virtually unhittable at times, but I say he's a little short of getting in.

Lee

gregmo32

I think he has a shot, with a few more good years. The fantastic two years at closer will help him more than two good replacement seasons as a starter would have, in my opinion. (Unless he ends up with about 280 wins, which seems unlikely but not impossible...).

shagrotn77

Smoltz will be a Hall-of-Famer. Mark it down right now. Unless it's a very weak class, he probably won't be a first-ballot guy, but he is the second coming of Eck, so he'll get in. 1 Cy Young Award, twice lead the league in wins, 3 straight seasons of 44 or more saves, and a career 3.28 ERA compared with a 4.13 average for the era. And that doesn't even include his sparkling postseason record. Smoltzy will hit 200 wins this year, and down the road he will land in Cooperstown. I think Schilling stands a good chance too. These guys do not have eye-popping career stats, but they are both regarded as dominant pitchers of their era.

MantleMarisFordBerra

Nah, I think he makes it. People are gonna remember him as a very important part of so many succesful Braves teams, his Cy Young award, and the fact he made a very smooth transistin to the bullpen when the team needed him to. Because he did that, he'll never get to 300, but I still think he gets in. Smoltz,Glavine, Maddox, Clemens,Johnson, Martinez, Rivera....what other pitchers who were in their primes in the 90's get in? Think about it...that's 7 pitchers from the whole decade. You've gotta be measured against your peers, and with that I think the writers will vote Smoltz in.

jdip9

No doubt he has hall of fame talent. If he was either solely a closer or solely a starter, he'd probably be a first ballot guy, since he'd probably end his career with 275+ wins or 500+ saves...but the combination of the two make him less attractive.

What people tend to forget is his post-season record (15-4, 2.65 ERA) - he is as clutch as they come. Based on baseball-reference.com monitors, he is on the cusp. I'd like to see him get in, he's been great for a long time, and was dominant for a short period (his years as a closer) - usually a recipe for induction.

Of all the guys that have either just retired or are about to retire, his is definitely the most intriguing case.

Volver

If Smoltz would have stayed a closer he would have made the Hall - in the mold of Eckersley. Switching back will hurt his chances - unless he plays another 6 - 7 years. He has only won 20 games once and currently only has 194 wins. He was more consistent than great. Nothing wrong with consistency, but the Hall of Fame is for consistently great performers.

Brian48

I think he has a good chance too. Modern pitchers are viewed very differently from the old timers. Stats are still important, they're not as weighted any more since the advent of the 5 man rotation, pitch count restrictions, etc..

Brian48

FYI, I think there are only 6 strong, first ballot locks right now. Glavine, Maddox, Clemens,J ohnson, P. Martinez, and Mo' Rivera. I'd put Smoltz on the same level as Schilling. Borderline, but leaning towards getting in.

BobaFett72

he gets in; favorably compared to Eckersly.
I just read an article about him, can't recall where, but he is going in, no doubt in my mind.

successful starter, Cy Young winner, dominant reliever, closing in on 3000 K's and a stellar Career ERA.
gonna end up with 200+ Career wins/ 150+ career saves.

monster in the Post Season:
Career Totals 15 - 4 ERA (2.65) 207 IP 194 SO 4 saves,

Mickey71

Another lock will be Trevor Hoffman. His stats other than post season are much better than Rivera's. Yes I did say much better. His percentage of converting saves is the best of all time by far. I know they don't typically like relievers but this guy is the all time leader and truly a great one. Get the plaque ready now.

rbdjr1

Yes, there is plenty of room for Smoltz in the Hall!

Gee, Smoltz, Glavine & Maddox just sounds right, to most baseball fans that witnessed this trio with the Braves.

And with his closing talents, IMO, will get his ticket punched too!

rd

Goot

<< <i>Unfortunately for him, he'll always be compared to Maddux and Glavine. In my mind, Maddux is a mortal lock, Glavine should get in after a year or two, and Smoltz doesn't get in at all. Although tragically, it's apparent that if he played his whole career as a closer, he'd probably be the Eckersley of this era (55, 45, 44 saves in his only three seasons as a closer). He has had a nice career up until this point, and was virtually unhittable at times, but I say he's a little short of getting in.

Lee[/q


Most of the time he still is unhittable. He is the ace of the Atlanta staff. He left the game with a lead 20 or more times last year but because of our crappy bullpen, he only won 16 games.

CDsNuts

I agree- he still is fairly dominant when he's on, and he's been pitching great the past few years as a starter. It seems he's more consistent now than earlier in his career and is flourishing as the staff's ace. I think his 3-year stint in the bullpen made him want to show he could be a starter again.

I was basing my opinion of him getting into the HOF if he retired today or at the end of this year. If he can keep it up over the next 3 years or more he will get in. hotmush basically asked: "Look at his stats- does he get in?" And my answer based on his current stats and career is no.

Lee

Goot

Yeah I agree with that. Sorry. I think he'll go another 2-3 years with 15 or more wins each season though. I think if he would've been a starter instead of a closer for those few years than he would have a shot at 300 depending on his past and future seasons. However he also could have been out of the game already because of fatigue. Lots of ifs or whens, but I think if he gets about 225 wins (needs 31) to go along with the Cy young award and the 150 or so saves he should have a good shot of getting in but it won't be on his 1st or maybe 2nd ballots.

CDsNuts

Hell, he could get another Cy Young before he's done. That would probably make him a lock as well.

Lee

jamesryanbell

My guess is no. I think the best reply in the thread was that he falls into the Blyleven catagory....great pitcher, but not quite.

I totally agree.

(and I'm not Smoltz bashing....I like him....great pitcher, like I said)

BobaFett72

"I think the best reply in the thread was that he falls into the Blyleven catagory....great pitcher, but not quite. "

Blyleven is better than quite a few HOF'ers

colebear

<< <i>"I think the best reply in the thread was that he falls into the Blyleven catagory....great pitcher, but not quite. "

Blyleven is better than quite a few HOF'ers >>



True, Blyleven is better than some HOF'er and was a great pitcher. Smoltz is a great pitcher also, unfortunately what everybody in this thread has proved, not as great as Glavine and Maddux.

hotmush

Kind of a shame to miss out just because you happen to have phenomenal teammates.
That being said, here's a list of stars who missed out on at least the first ballot. Some great names...

Rich Gossage
Jim Rice
Andre Dawson
Bert Blyleven
Lee Smith
Jack Morris
Mark McGwire
Tommy John
Dave Conception
Alan Trammell
Dave Parker
Don Mattingly
Dale Murphy
Harold Baines

And Stars who got bumped for not enough votes, some good names:
Steve Garvey
Orel Hershiser
Bret Saberhagen
Jose Canseco
Eric Davis
Ken Caminiti
Will Clark
Dwight Gooden
Darryl Strawberry
Keith Hernandez
Joe Carter
Cecil Fielder
Ron Guidry
Frank Viola
Lou Whitaker
Kirk Gibson
Dave Righetti
Andy Van Slyke
Rick Sutcliffe
Kent Hrbek
Steve Sax
Dwight Evans
Willie Randolph
Ken Griffey
Fred Lynn
George Foster
Darrell Evans
Ted Simmons
Joe Niekro
Bill Madlock
Ron Cey
Cecil Cooper
Dave Kingman
Cesar Cedeno
Steve Yeager
Thurman Munson
Jerry Koosman
Greg Luzinski

BobaFett72

Honestly, in the post season I'd take Smoltz over glavine or Maddux.

Was he as consistently good as Maddux (really how many are?) or Glavine. No. but he IS a HOF.

colebear

<< <i>Honestly, in the post season I'd take Smoltz over glavine or Maddux.

Was he as consistently good as Maddux (really how many are?) or Glavine. No. but he IS a HOF. >>



I never said he was not hall of fame material, i believe he is. But, not all potential HOF'ers get in and I do not think he will.

halosfan

Smoltz will have his day in Cooperstown at some point.

Volver

I cannot see how Smoltz is HOF material. Is Smoltz any better than Bret Saberhagen (2 time Cy Young and career ERA of 3.34) or David Cone who has a career stat line very similar to Smoltz. Sure Smoltz was great in the post season, but the Divison Series just isn't game 7 of the World Series and not to mention how many W/S did the Braves win.

The Hall of Fame is (or should be) reserved for the elite.

magellan

How many saves does Cone have? If I were to pick between Glavine & Smoltz for 1 game right now, there is no question, Smoltz is it. As has been mentioned his closest comparison is Eck. He won't have the saves but he will have more wins. Don't forget he is not done yet-far from it.

Volver

So b/c Smoltz has 150 some saves he is a better pitcher or deserves to be in the Hall? I need more of a defense that that. Glavine and Maddux are HOF's..Smoltz, not so much

GDM67

I haven't had a lot of fun arguing these kinds of topics on these boards, so I'll make this short and sweet.

shagrotn77, MantleMarisFordBerra, jdip, Bobafett 72 and rbdjr1 have made all the salient points. No one has ever had 200+ wins and 150+ saves, he's the most dominant pitcher of his generation in postseason and the move from dominant starter, to dominant closer and back again will, far from hurting him, propel his case in the minds of the voters.

His stellar October marks include a 2.47 World Series ERA and a Game 7 in which he pitched evenly with his childhood idol, at the age of 24. If you want to blow your nose on that, be my guest, but I think most people who know the game understand that he's a Hall of Famer.

And you'd better believe that I would prefer him or Glavine in October over Maddux.

Goot

<< <i>I haven't had a lot of fun arguing these kinds of topics on these boards, so I'll make this short and sweet.

shagrotn77, MantleMarisFordBerra, jdip, Bobafett 72 and rbdjr1 have made all the salient points. No one has ever had 200+ wins and 150+ saves, he's the most dominant pitcher of his generation in postseason and the move from dominant starter, to dominant closer and back again will, far from hurting him, propel his case in the minds of the voters.

His stellar October marks include a 2.47 World Series ERA and a Game 7 in which he pitched evenly with his childhood idol, at the age of 24. If you want to blow your nose on that, be my guest, but I think most people who know the game understand that he's a Hall of Famer.

And you'd better believe that I would prefer him or Glavine in October over Maddux. >>

Volver

GDM - I will refrain from challenging your baseball knowledge, but to say Smoltz was dominant is hardly without argue. Eck had 197 wins with about 4 less years starting coupled with 350+ saves.

Sure his World Series ERA may be 2.47, but his record is 2 - 2 and 7 of his post season wins have been in the NLDS.

If Smoltz is such a sure fire HOF'er please include the likes of Saberhagen, Cone, Hershisher, Jack Morris and even Kevin Brown - you will find their careers are remarkably similar.


Edited to add Morris

GDM67

So the NLDS is somehow declassé, now? The Playoffs are the Playoffs. Their structure is determined by the leages. I'm not sure why because of the happenstance of him having a strong record in that series (he has a strong one in the various NLCS games he's pitched in, as well), should be held against him. His World Series ERA, which measures the only thing he's in control of, is the best of the three, and they are all superior.

None of the people you named have made the transition that John has. None of them was ever a lights out closer. None of them has been a part of a run like John has been for the Braves. You can disdain the accomplishment if you want (you'll hardly be the first), but many of us are proud of it.

I despise the man, but I've always advocated Morris' election, and I think Orel and Cone have solid cases, too.

Saberhagen 167-117 3.34 (Postseason 2-4 4.67)
Hershshiser 204-150 3.48 (Postseason 8-3 2.59)
Cone 194-126 3.46 (Postseason 8-3 3.80)
Kevin Brown 211-144 3.28 (Postseason 5-5 4.19, including 6.04 in 2 World Series)

And Smoltz

194-138 3.28 154 Saves (Postseason 15-4 2.65)

Every one of those other guys is done, and Smoltz is better than, or close to, almost all of their marks. (I didn't include Morris because I think his case is difeferent, as he has over 250 wins. He's comparable to guys like Blyleven and Kaat, to me.)

John's numbers will look even better by the time he's finished.

Morgoth

He is still playing and 250 wins is reachable. 250 wins with 150 saves is a lock for the HOF. Would be the most versatile pitcher in the HOF.

Jdurg

When looking at a player and considering him for the HOF you CAN NOT compare them to people who played in COMPLETELY DIFFERENT ERAS!!!!! The HOF is about players who dominated in THEIR ERA of play. Baseball has changed so freaking much that you can't compare a pitcher of today to a pitcher of the 1960's or earlier. Yes, John Smoltz is no Bob Gibson, but John Smoltz isn't facing the same players that Bob Gibson did, nor is he playing in the same parks. You have to look at how Smoltz has done during the time that he played.

His ability to close games very successfully as well as his ability to be a successful starter shows that he is a verstaile pitcher. It doesn't matter where you put him, he'll shut down the opposition and help his team win games. He's done this for a long period of time in an era that is supposedly "offensively minded".

If you want to continue to compare hitters and pitchers of today to their colleagues of the past, then there is NOBODY in the modern era who should go into the HOF. How many modern hitters' batting averages can compare to those of the players in the 40's and 50's? How many pitchers have as many innings or wins as Cy Young? Therefore, there should be no further entries into the HOF.

This is why the comparisons need to be made against the rest of the players in the era they played in. If you go by that logic, then Smoltz is a sure fire HOFer.

Volver

Was Smoltz ever compared to any pitcher of yesteryear? I know the pitchers I mentioned were all in the last 20 years - still a very comparable era.

To me Smoltz is not a current HOF'er, but if he can put up at least 3 more solids years he will continue to build his case and probably get my vote. I just do not see him as a lock as we sit here today.

CDsNuts

I also agree he's not a lock if his career ends today or at tha end of this year. The postseason record is very impressive, but what if Jack Morris or Hershiser got to play an extra round of playoffs against teams with inferior records (Wild Card)?

Also, the fact that he got moved to closer was out of necessity (what the Braves needed) more than anything. If Clemens, Schilling, Pedro, Halladay, -insert dominating pitcher here) were ever made a closer they would put up numbers too. Pitching is pitching- the only difference in being a closer is that you get to use everything you have in an inning or two rather than try and conserve your armstrength, and there's a little added pressure to close out the game. Any manager would choose a very good starter over a great closer. If anything, his 3 years as closer prolonged his career (in terms of years and games pitched) while adding to his stats. I would choose a 16 win season over a 45 save season any day of the week. I don't think his three seasons as a closer help as much as you think.

Let me finish by repeating that if he goes on to have 2-4 more quality years as a starter, I think he's in.

Lee

Morgoth

According to this logic though you would say a person with a 16 year career, averging 16 wins a year for a total of 256 wins is more impressive than a closer averaging 45 saves a year for 16 years for a total of 720 saves. I don't which is more impressive as I feel modern pitchers with 250 wins are going to be close to HOF candidates now because of the use of the bullpen and 5 man rotations. However 720 saves is a large number. Any stat geeks out there that can shed more light into this?

CDsNuts

I didn't say it was more impressive to have 16 wins, I said it was more valuable to a team, meaning if a manager had the choice between a 16 win starter and a 45 save reliever, he'd go with the starter. Otherwise, why isn't Smoltz still in the bullpen?

As far as looking at stats goes, the 720 saves looks more impressive on paper, which as we all know doesn't always translate to value on the field. For example, who would you rather have on your team: Ozzie Smith or Dante Bichette?

Lee

BobaFett72

If Cone and Hershiser had a few more wins, or had better run support when they played on some crappy teams they would be in the HOF.

Personally Hershiser should go in, but thats just my opinion. David Cone was a classy, fiery competitor; again a few more wins here or there and I think they would both be locks.

estang

He's in superb shape, plays for a contender every year and so I think he can do it with 5 more years out of him. He'll get compared to Eckersly and the Braves success and his postseason stats will likely put him over the top. Jury still out.

donnnster

Anyone who gets on the top of the list for most bizarre baseball injuries deserves a place somewhere!

LINK

Just trying to lighten up the mood around here!

CDsNuts

I've done that too. Small burn on my chin. Can't explain what was going through my head- I guess I was too lazy to take my shirt off. I'm an idiot.

Lee

GDM67

Remlinger and Mulholland are both former teammates of John's

(I hadn't heard about Terry. As a devotee of feather pillows, I can see how that would happen. Still funny, though.)

John did an interview w/ ESPN: The Magazine a few years ago (by Dan Patrick, IIRC), and specified that it was one of those portable steam shooters, rather than a real metal-bottom iron. Not that that's any better, but just to be precise.