1981 + PSA sets

theBobs

Is anyone working or thinking of building sets from 1981 or higher? I know of some activity in 1978-1980, just curious how far forward the PSA set building will reach...

Vargha

1999 Bowman Chrome Refractor, 1982 and 1984 Donruss, 1986 Fleer Sticker and 1983 Topps all appear in the set requests.

FB

84 Donruss - in PSA 9.

mcastaldi

As if I wasn't asking for enough punishment doing four sets (72, 75, 79, & 80), I'm about 80% sure I'm going to start 82F in PSA9.

Mike

RayBShotz

My daughter is chomping at the bit waiting for 1993 Bowman Baesball to hit the "boards". She is working on PSA 9+.... Chip off the old block. Would appreciate anybody else who is remotely interested in that set to request it to help her out. Happy New Year to all!
RayB69Topps

mikeschmidt

One day perhaps.

A 1981 Topps set in PSA 9 would be quite hard -- and something that has been at the back of my mind for a while.

MS

pinhigh

schmidty - I agree. I think we will see more of these sets appearing, possibly up to the mid-80's. I have actually been seriously considering, and discussing it with mcastaldi, the great possibility of me building a 1980 set in 9. Those cards would be more along the lines of what I collected as a youngster. Gotta get to work on my '53 Bowman set though. I think the issue of newer sets will be an interesting topic in the coming years.

theBobs

I have also thought about the 1981 Topps set. It seems that vending boxes for 81 and 84 Topps are relatively affordable. I may start gathering gradeable commons but hold of on submitting until more of a market develops...

FatCat

<< <i>I have also thought about the 1981 Topps set. It seems that vending boxes for 81 and 84 Topps are relatively affordable. I may start gathering gradeable commons but hold of on submitting until more of a market develops... >>


If you are planning to sell them, why hold off? As the market develops, submitting increases and so does the population. You'll get much better prices when the population is low...especially if you advertise them properly (i.e. "1 of 1" for pop 1 PSA 9 cards that really aren't rare...its just that nobody else has bothered to submit them yet).

Todd

Also considering the 1981 Topps Set. Sounds like their could be a few of us. I just requested it be added to the set registry.

FatCat

You guys would actually spend a minimum of $4356.00 in grading fees in order to put the extremely overproduced 1981 Topps set in PSA plastic?

Hmm...to each his/her own...

mcastaldi

FatCat> "You guys would actually spend a minimum of $4356.00 in grading fees in order to put the extremely overproduced 1981 Topps set in PSA plastic?"

I think you only see half the story in terms of population/production. Yes, there may have been a lot of 81T produced and available, but because of centering and print problems the number of that population which is of PSA9-quality is a lot smaller. This will be a major point when people start going through their early and mid-80s stuff.

I would also say if you want a challenging graded set, try 1981 Fleer or 1981 Donruss. Sure there's tons of cards available, but most of it is horribly off-centered or miscut. So while there seem to be tons of cards, the number of submittable cards is much smaller. Spend the $15 or so on an 81F vending box and see how many PSA8-worthy cards you end up with. 10%? 15%? And with PSA9, you're almost certainly looking at less than 5% of the box.

As far as why one would hold off submitting them until there's a market. . .many people will submit multiple examples of a card and pull one of the 9s and then sell off the other 9s & 8s. Then use the funds from selling off those duplicates to fund more submissions and/or purchases. With no market for these duplicates, this approach isn't possible.

Mike

mikeschmidt

FatCat-

For what it is worth, nearly every collector said the same exact thing about the post-1973 sets two years ago. The thought of a completely graded 1974, 1975 or 1977 set was obscene. Yet, it has happened. 1974 and 1975 are almost complete, with many late 1970s sets in the works.

It will come.

waitilltheytrytosell

Mike's example of busting down a 15.00 500 count vendor box of 81 Fleer is a scary thought. I'm all for everyone having fun collecting, collecting what they like, and doing their own thing, but there is a lot of money being invested into cards of no real value. And the thing is, that everything kind of costs about the same to collect too. You can buy a lot of 60's commons for in the $10 to $15 range, you pay about the same for 70's, and 80's are going to end up costing you about the same also. What you get done or stop, what do you have to show for it? If I buy a bunch of PSA 8 - 1964-65-66-67-68 commons, minor stars, maybe a few stars, and maybe even complete a set eventually, what do I have to show for it? I have a strictly graded NM-MT 1960's set which even removed from the holders is a several thousand dollar set. Many people will want to buy this. If I assemble a PSA 8 or 8/9 1981 Fleer set, what do I have? What do I have, removed from the holders? I've got 10 bucks worth of cards that nobody in the world would want. In the long run if you take a card of value, and add in the PSA value added, you will stand a much better chance of maintaining value. If you take a card of no value, add in the PSA value added, and you're the only one who cares, you will lose big time. Money and value isn't the most important thing when collecting, but most people don't like to waste money. And going through all of this collecting, knowing that in the end you're not wasting money, has to be a consideration of some level to everyone. Please, please, oh please, buy older cards which have aged to having some collectible value.

mcastaldi

Waittil> My example of 81F was more to demonstate the difference between the population of an issue and the population of gradeable examples of that same issue. That difference will vary from issue to issue. For example, most of the new 2001 stuff is of submittable quality. Printing, centering and general quality control is very good. However, with say 1979T if you bust a vending box you may only get 20 cards worthy of 9s. But the value of a specific issue is in the eyes of the beholder.

I think you make some valid points in terms of the "what for" on some issues. Myself, I'm picking up 82F in PSA9 when I can do so for cheap. Mostly because this was the first set I built myself from packs. I think when you mention collecting issues that have some "collectible value", I agree. . .but I think the term "collectible value" will vary from collector to collector. But you're right that common sense should come into play somewhere.

Mike

FatCat

mcastaldi -- I wasn't only seeing half of the story. I'm well aware of the extremely poor quality control surrounding the production of 1981 Topps...as well as with the Fleer and Donruss issues from that year. Those sets (as well as all baseball sets from 78-83) were a major part of my childhood years. I had anywhere from 20-30 of every single card from all of those years...and I kept them in absolutely perfect condition. Of course there were centering and print problems...but those things weren't an issue back then. It was all about the corners. In 1986, when I started college and wanted some beer money, I stupidly pulled all the major stars from all of those sets...walked into a local card shop...and sold huge stacks of totally mint (cornerwise) cards -- Murray RCs, Ozzie RCs, Ripken RCs, Ripken Traded, Ryan, Rose, Yaz, etc -- all for pennies on the 1986 dollar. Granted the 1981's aren't worth much more now than they were then...but I took a helluva beating on the other stuff. The 82 Topps Traded Ripken only booked for $5.00 at the time. I sold 20 of those in mint condition (cornerwise anyway) for $1.00 each. In total, I walked out of that card shop with about $300.00 in my pocket. Needless to say, I very much regret that day now. Anyway, still to this day, I have a closet full of boxes of 78-83 Baseball issues...less all the major stars. 95% or more of these cards have mint to gem mint corners...but I'm well aware now of the other problems (centering, print, wax, registration) that these cards have. The 79 and 81 issues are by far the worst in terms of these other problems. The point that I was trying to make earlier was that the cards from 81 are still to this day so readily available in major quantity...in untouched vending form. Even though there was poor quality control in 1981, with the vast amount of these available...there's still gonna be a huge amount of submittable examples. Taking into account the fact that the demand for them raw is minimal...and the major overproduction...I personally think that putting a minimum of $4356.00 in grading fees into this set is silly. As for your figure of 5% of a 1981 Topps vending box being PSA 9 quality, I think that is a little low. I'm basing that on the quality of the cards that I still have from when I busted packs 21 years ago. I'd say that it would be around 10% or maybe a little bit more. But anyway, lets say its only 5%...that still yields 25 PSA 9 quality raw cards from every vending box available....and there's literally warehouses full of 1981 Topps vending boxes all over the country. It doesn't really matter that 475 out of every 500 cards belong in the trash....those 500 cards only cost $15.00. That's 25 PSA 9 quality raw cards for $15.00...and you can buy as many as you want of those 1981 vending boxes. In 10 or 20 years from now, you'll still be able to buy as many as you want. I just see slabbing an entire 1981 set as a financial disaster...but as I said earlier, to each his/her own. And just for the record, although I personally wouldn't do it, I don't feel the same way regarding 1980 Topps or the late 70's issues. Those are a different story. Huge changes occurred in the card world in 1981.

mikeschmidt -- I'm aware of the collector viewpoint from a few years ago regarding slabbing post-1973 sets. As I was saying to mcastaldi, I don't see anything crazy about slabbing 74-80 sets....I'm not sure if I would do it...but I don't see anything crazy about it. However, I see 81 and up being a financial disaster. One exception would be 86 Fleer basketball...but we're talking about baseball cards so that's not really relevant.

waittil -- I totally agree with everything that you said. Too many people have the false impression that spending $6.00 to slab a 20 cent common automatically makes it worth a minimum of $6.20...and that's just not true. Even getting a 9 doesn't necessarily increase the value to that of the grading cost. I see tons of modern 9's selling on Ebay for well less than the cost of grading.

In conclusion, my advice to everybody is...decide why you are purchasing the cards that you are purchasing. Is it for enjoyment? Is it for investment? Is it for enjoyment and investment? Is it mainly for enjoyment...but with investment somewhat in mind? Is it mainly for investment...but with enjoyment somewhat in mind? These things are important things to think about. If someone is purchasing for strictly investment, they need to keep their emotions out of the picture. I get the impression that anybody building a complete high grade PSA graded set has investment at least somewhat in mind. Of course it is enjoyable to do this even if its strictly for investment...the thrill of the chase is always gonna be enjoyable (and frustrating at times). Based upon what I've seen mcastaldi say in other threads, I get the impression that he is doing his 72 and 75 sets for investment purposes...and his 79 and 80 sets for emotional purposes. This doesn't mean that he isn't enjoying building those 72 and 75 sets...and this doesn't mean that he can't or won't become emotional about those sets. This also doesn't mean that he doesn't have investment thoughts in the back of his mind with his 79 and 80 sets. I think the decision of what set(s) to start doing is basically where one needs to ask themself why they are doing it. If someone is gonna get $4356.00 to $5000.00+ worth of enjoyment out of hunting down PSA 9 quality 1981 cards to slab an entire set...then I say go for it. But if someone is mainly thinking about a venture like that being a profitable investment somewhere down the road...then I think that might want to reconsider this. I've made it a point to seperate emotions and investments...because I've found that, 99 out of 100 times, if you make purchases based on emotion...you will lose financially. In terms of emotions, all baseball issues from 1978-1983 appeal to me very much...with a heavy emphasis on Red Sox cards. But in terms of investment, my brain tells me to stay the hell away from that stuff...and to buy Mickey Mantle cards. But ya know...even though I wasn't even born until right after Mantle retired...and even though I began purchasing Mantle cards for investment, I've developed an emotional attachment to them. I find it very tough to part with them. So its not all about investment. At the same time, it works the same way for people collecting for emotional/enjoyment reasons...at some point they all at least think about what they could sell their cards for. I guess the point I'm trying to make is...chances are strong that you will end up enjoying whatever you decide to collect...so why not do something that makes more sense financially? Despite the enjoyment one gets, there's always gonna be the thought of value...in the back of one's mind at the very least.

FatCat

<< <i>As far as why one would hold off submitting them until there's a market. . .many people will submit multiple examples of a card and pull one of the 9s and then sell off the other 9s & 8s. Then use the funds from selling off those duplicates to fund more submissions and/or purchases. With no market for these duplicates, this approach isn't possible. >>


You're talking about a "dumping your leftovers" type approach. There's no profit in that...and its usually a loss scenario. My suggestion for not holding off until a market develops is geared towards a seller's way of financially profiting. In most cases, the 1st high grade example of any card is gonna be the one that sells for the most (if advertised properly)...whether there is a market for it or not. For example, one time I purchased a 1991 Skybox Basketball Karl Malone PSA 9 card that I found in a 50 cent bin at a local show. It is like a $1.00 junk raw card that you can't give away...and there certainly is no market for graded 1991 Skybox Basketball. I dunno why I even bought the POS card. Anyway, I decided I was gonna put a couple hundred PSA cards on Ebay...and I figured why not list this PSA 9 Karl Malone also. Even though I planned to start the auction at a penny with no reserve, I didn't think someone would even want it for a penny...considering that they would have to pay 3 or 4 bucks for shipping. I listed it anyway...but before I listed it, I decided to check the pop report. I found out that it was the only 9 of this card...with none graded higher. No big deal...its a junk card that nobody would bother getting graded...so being a 1/1 didn't make it special. However, I decided to take advantage of this pop report info...and I listed it as a "1 of 1"..the only one in existance. This wasn't false advertising or anything along those lines..it was a "1 of 1"...even though it was just a POS. As I said, I started the auction at a penny with no reserve...but I put a BIN for $60.00...and believe it or not, some insane Karl Malone collector grabbed it for the $60.00 BIN within 2 hours after the auction was listed. Do you see what I'm saying? Sure I got lucky with that...and this type of thing isn't gonna happen everyday...BUT there is always gonna be a better chance of getting a premium for an item when there are fewer examples available in the marketplace. Waiting for the market to develop is a poor approach...unless you're planning to use a "dump your leftovers" type approach.

mcastaldi

FatCat> Couple of details. . .
- The 5% figure was for 81 FLEER - not Topps. I'm sure 81T would be closer to the figure you provided.
- While there is still a very large amount of 1981 stuff available, there hasn't been all that much graded (for obvious reasons). And I'm not altogether convinced that the overall production numbers for 81T were all that different than 78-80. I think the lack of general demand for the issue also makes it seem like there's more produced and available. i.e. if you always see it available, you think there's tons of it. This is just theory on my part. . .but I didn't think overproduction became a significant problem until 86 or so. Perhaps this is mistaken.
- I don't disagree with you in thinking that slabbing an 81T set is silly (right now anyway). . .as I responded to Waittil, each collector will have their own definition of "collectible value" and that common sense should come into play at some point.
- As for why I'm building my sets. . .actually, they're all for emotional reasons. . .each set has a different reason behind it, but I have no plans to sell when I complete them.

I think whether you make a profit or loss on "dumping your leftovers" depends on more factors than you went into. Population is only one consideration. First, I think it depends on the quality of the "leftovers". And it depends on how good you are at getting high grades back from PSA. Most of the people I know who submit multiples of a card aren't selling off 6s and 7s. Their "leftovers" are usually vintage 8s and occasionally 9s. My 1972 Bench PSA9 was from one collector's "leftovers". So given someone pays maybe $1-$2 per card plus the grading fees, if they sell off 8s for $15 each, they're basically doubling their money - with higher profit on leftover 9s obviously. On 6s and 7s, absolutely. . .you're going to take a loss. But if your "leftovers" are 8s or better, you're probably making at least some profit. Second, there have to be people willing to buy those "leftovers". With the 1972 set, I know there are at least six people actively pursuing a complete graded set. So I know if I get extra 8s, there's usually a market for them - at a profit to me. So in this case, the first card in the population may have some increased value, but anything in the 72T set with a pop less than 6 has automatic demand. The same is not true with the 82F set I'm building. I know of noone else building that set so I would have no known outlet for any duplicates I may get. So it's not in my interest to submit tons of cards for that issue right now. If I find someone else building the set and can help them with duplicate cards I may get, this may change.
I know a couple set builders who do very well with submitting multiple examples of a card and selling off these spare/duplicate cards to help build their sets. So I disagree when you say there's no profit in it. There's no guaranteed profit in that, but if your "leftovers" are nice enough and you have enough people willing to buy them, you can definitely do OK with this approach.

Mike

Vargha

Quoting Star Wars parodies now, eh Mike?

mcastaldi

Dave> It was either that line or-
"I knew it! I'm surrounded by as. holes!"
or
"Why don't you go back to the golf course and work on your putts!"

Mike