Are "pricing guides" really even applicable anymore?

jamesryanbell

Take a 1976 Topps Nolan Ryan for instance. I have a *really* nice one in the safety deposit box, but like everything else in my collection, nothing's professionally graded. Beckett says the card is worth a mid two-figure price tag, even in great shape (Mint or Gem Mint).

However, there's a PSA 10 '76 Ryan (Topps) auction on eBay right now, and the bid is at $5,500 (not a typo either)...and it's not even done yet. !!! What % mark up is that?!?
I mean seriously...that's nuts.

It seems like Gem Mint PSA cards bring so much more over book that it's insane (for cards that are hard to come by). It pretty much seems like it's "name your price" as a seller if you have anything pre-1975 that's a PSA 10.

Even PSA 7-8 cards from the 60's and 70's bring *WAY* more than the price guide states. It doesn't seem like they have tapped into the real market.

Is there anything more "in tune" with the market than Beckett?

So what good are the pricing guides if they're that far off?

mikeschmidt

There are a lot of PSA 7/8 cards that sell for significantly under SMR values from the 1950s and 1960s.

all in all, it is simply a guide...and it seems to have been replaced by the more current technology of some of the pricing services out there.

kcballboy

Your best price guide is the recently completed auctions on Ebay. Even SMR, which specifically prices PSA graded cards, is consistently inconsistent.

hotmush

I've noticed as a rule that cards post-1977 baseball sells on ebay for about 55% of what the SMR lists them for (excluding most PSA 10s). Just my 2 cents.

storm888

"...it is simply a guide...

///////////////////////////////

Yup.

And, completed listings on EBAY are a good snapshot, too.

originalisbest

Completed auctions searches on eBay do help me garner what a "given" card is going for lately - and then decide if I want a given example, at about that price.

jamesgotpoorman

The skies the limit on PSA 10's when 2+ people need it for their registry!!!!!

RipublicaninMass

<< <i>The skies the limit on PSA 10's when 2+ people need it for their registry!!!!! >>



A strong want,,,,,,is a justifiable need!

2dueces

No

CDsNuts

Beckett became irrelevant back in the mid 90s when every dealer at a card show had 90% of their stuff marked half off, but Beckett refused to put down arrows on everything from 1970-present which would have been an accurate market analysis. At some point they accurately read the market (1987-1995), but not reflecting the huge hit the hobby took in those years lost them all credibility.

PSA refuses to update the SMR regularly so there's not way that could be an accurate guide.

There's a lot of guesswork going on in terms of prices for stuff that doesn't come up for sale very often- even cheap stuff. For example, I've been watching early 90s OPC baseball wax boxes. I've seen 93s sell for $10 and for $30. It depends who sees the auction. Same happens with low pop PSA slabbed cards. As far as cards that sell regularly (Marino RCs, etc....), recently completed ebay auctions are your best guage as kcballboy mentioned.

Lee

jamesryanbell

<< <i>Beckett became irrelevant back in the mid 90s when every dealer at a card show had 90% of their stuff marked half off, but Beckett refused to put down arrows on everything from 1970-present which would have been an accurate market analysis. At some point they accurately read the market (1987-1995), but not reflecting the huge hit the hobby took in those years lost them all credibility.

PSA refuses to update the SMR regularly so there's not way that could be an accurate guide.

There's a lot of guesswork going on in terms of prices for stuff that doesn't come up for sale very often- even cheap stuff. For example, I've been watching early 90s OPC baseball wax boxes. I've seen 93s sell for $10 and for $30. It depends who sees the auction. Same happens with low pop PSA slabbed cards. As far as cards that sell regularly (Marino RCs, etc....), recently completed ebay auctions are your best guage as kcballboy mentioned.

Lee >>



Thanks for the most accurate and thought-out post of the thread thus far.

TheVon

I agree with CDsNuts.

I'd like to add my two cents though. It seems to me that in this industry everyone wants to get a good deal on the cards they buy so they figure a fair price would be a certain percentage of SMR. My observation has been that when a PSA 8 or 9 card (or even a 10 for modern) books for $25, it tends to sell for $9.99 . . . so the real market value is $10. If price guides were updated to accurately reflect the going rate of $10, then I suspect the next time that card sells it would do so for 99 cents plus shipping.

It's my opinion that the publishers of these guides intentionally do not update their prices regularly because doing so would undermine the value of most cards and send many financially-motivated hobbyists running for cover. That would just hurt the sales of their publications and services. Who wants to pay $5-8 to get a card graded when they know that if it's not a 10 they'll be lucky to recoup their grading fees? (I also think another main reason for not updating prices is because it's a laborious task and probably cost-prohibitive unless you charge for the service like VCP does.)

I can't explain the difference between some gem mint sales and what the price guides claim except for the old "supply and demand" cliché.

What good are these price guides then? Not much, but I sometimes glance at my SMR just to see which are the keys cards in a set.

spazzy

Price guides from Tuff Stuff are always off on unopened vintage stuff. Thay have not upgraded in years. Tuff Stuff does not even carry any Boxing prices and lots of this stuff is hot. I Have called, Emailed and left messages to TS about their unopened prices and nothing has happened. That FREE price guide that they give you when reup is a piece of poo because it is nothing special. I know SMR has Boxing prices but I want to see more. I dont see it getting any better....Ebay completed auctions are a good guide. Does anyone know how to go back a year or more to find older ebay closing prices? Spazzy

CDsNuts

That's funny Von- the only reason I ever look at SMR is to find out which the key cards are and they're even off on that, sometimes leaving a particularly desirebale card out even though it's not one of the big names. I haven't looked at an SMR price in years. Here's why: Look at the 1975/76 Topps basketball set. A the end of the listing they mention "A PSA Gem Mint 10 Malone rookie sold for $1,298 in 2004". Yeah, well about 10 have sold since 2004 so this information isn't really relavent. If this is the type of data they're relying on to price things, there's no way prices are current or accurate.

An accurate online priceguide that takes into account all recent sales for raw and graded cards would do really well right now. It would take a lot of time and a lot of data entry employees to get it up and running, but I think it would be well received. Look how well VCP has been doing and they only do recent sales for slabbed cards pre-90s. A comprehensive guide where you could search for any raw or slabbed card and get an accurate price for it would be an awesome resource, and take a lot of the guesswork out of what to bid on a card.

Lee

hotmush

Totally agree. I have an area I collect and keep track of prices in that area on a spreadsheet. Very handy to refer to.