Coin prices indexes

rooksmith

Anyone ever look at these indexes.. some are way (types , keys and rares) some - expecially Morgan-Peace and Commems are way down - sell high and buy low, or go with the trend?


* Generic Gold Coin Index
* Mint State Rare Gold Coin Index
* Proof Gold Coin Index
* Mint State Type Coin Index
* Proof Type Coin Index
* Morgan and Peace Dollar Index
* Silver and Gold Commemorative Index
* 20th Century Coin Index
* PCGS3000™ Index
* Key Dates and Rarities Index

bidask

<< <i>Anyone ever look at these indexes.. some are way (types , keys and rares) some - expecially Morgan-Peace and Commems are way down - sell high and buy low, or go with the trend?


* Generic Gold Coin Index
* Mint State Rare Gold Coin Index
* Proof Gold Coin Index
* Mint State Type Coin Index
* Proof Type Coin Index
* Morgan and Peace Dollar Index
* Silver and Gold Commemorative Index
* 20th Century Coin Index
* PCGS3000™ Index
* Key Dates and Rarities Index >>

I am familiar with the pcgs 3000, where do you find all these indexes posted?

RedTiger

A person can find the charts at the bottom of this page, click on the links to see the segments:
PCGS 3000 page

I have glanced at the charts. The overall index looks like a healthy uptrend, though vulnerable to a sharp correction. The key date and early type index looks like a late stage bubble, ready to hurt a lot of folks buying at current prices. The Morgan/Peace chart is troubling because so much of the volume is in Morgans. I would not suggest loading up on these weak segments.

The average collector should buy and sell in a steady manner. Attempting to time the market is a losing proposition for the average collector.

ziggy29

<< <i>I have glanced at the charts. The overall index looks like a healthy uptrend, though vulnerable to a sharp correction. The key date and early type index looks like a late stage bubble, ready to hurt a lot of folks buying at current prices. >>

Could be, but this has been one of the more crash-proof segments of the market for a long, long time. Compare its action post-1989 with most other segments, for example; these didn't fall nearly as hard as most of the coin market. These are pretty much always in demand and are one of the first things some people want to buy on softness because they'd been priced out of them for so long.

Classic rarity is always in demand.

bidask

<< <i>A person can find the charts at the bottom of this page, click on the links to see the segments:
PCGS 3000 page

I have glanced at the charts. The overall index looks like a healthy uptrend, though vulnerable to a sharp correction. The key date and early type index looks like a late stage bubble, ready to hurt a lot of folks buying at current prices. The Morgan/Peace chart is troubling because so much of the volume is in Morgans. I would not suggest loading up on these weak segments.

The average collector should buy and sell in a steady manner. Attempting to time the market is a losing proposition for the average collector. >>

thank you...I don't look at this often and did not scroll down.

RedTiger

<< <i>

<< <i>I have glanced at the charts. The overall index looks like a healthy uptrend, though vulnerable to a sharp correction. The key date and early type index looks like a late stage bubble, ready to hurt a lot of folks buying at current prices. >>

Could be, but this has been one of the more crash-proof segments of the market for a long, long time. Compare its action post-1989 with most other segments, for example; these didn't fall nearly as hard as most of the coin market. These are pretty much always in demand and are one of the first things some people want to buy on softness because they'd been priced out of them for so long.

Classic rarity is always in demand. >>



Fundamentals always look best at the top. Not talking coins now, just markets in general, the longer and the more extended the chart, the harder the eventual fall. For coins, sentiment is another negative, as there are a ton of folks that believe their key dates have one-way price charts because that's the way it has been for a long time. Complacent sentiment and an extended chart counts for two strikes. If a third strike appears in the form of a weak economy then prices could tumble 50% in short order, even with the coin bull market still intact. A lot of key dates are in dealer inventories. Some dealers own these coins on borrowed money. Dealers that started up during the past ten years have never seen an extended downturn and many will not know what to do. These dealers may go under and be forced to dump their inventory on the market at any price. If prices start to crack and collector demand softens due to a bad economy, it could get real ugly.

Again, timing is not something I recommend, and the sky is not falling, at least not yet. However, anyone thinking it is safe to buy these coins at current prices is fooling themselves and playing with fire. Calling top is rarely a profitable game. Exercising caution and sound judgement is always a good idea when a lot of money is involved, and there are two strikes against that market segment.

ziggy29

<< <i>Fundamentals always look best at the top. Not talking coins now, just markets in general, the longer and the more extended the chart, the harder the eventual fall. For coins, sentiment is another negative, as there are a ton of folks that believe their key dates have one-way price charts because that's the way it has been for a long time. Complacent sentiment and an extended chart counts for two strikes. If a third strike appears in the form of a weak economy then prices could tumble 50% in short order, even with the coin bull market still intact. A lot of key dates are in dealer inventories. >>

I don't disagree, but I think the key dates are different than, say, MS-65 Morgans or MS-63 Saints because the keys are largely pursued by serious collectors and less by coin-flipping investors or speculators. Thus the stampede to sell may not be as great for those issues as for issues where there are more investors effectively trying to place a "stop loss" by unloading coins.