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Philippines - JHF - What do you make of this?
FilamCoins
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Looks like a nice coin, though. Hard to tell how dark the coin is (how much of that is toning and how much of it is due to lighting).
That frickin' yellow highlighting on the page has to go.
You're right about the listing!
I think Mr Fun will be pleasantly surprised with the price realized. A few years ago, a small hoard of this date was found. I myself got 3 of them for around $70 each and I'm sure JHF has a bunch as well. Just amazing what a few new collectors to the series will do to "market" prices.
Regards.
<< <i>I dunno what JHF makes of it, but I for one wish that the eBay sellers would spend less bandwidth on longwinded listings in large colored fonts, and more on the pictures. Geez, such a riot of color and wordiness on that page, all for one teeny picture! >>
I get a kick out of the sellers that include a history of what happened around the time that the coin was minted or some other such thing. Seems like a lot to go through.
Sorry to be dilatory in responding but I was traveling home from the states, and was out of touch for a day and a half.
Regarding the price, I do find it entirely unsurprising. I keep on being surprised at your surprise when these coins inch up a little.
I mentioned about 9 months ago, that Bright Young Filipina's average eBay sale was 73% over Allen's catalog pricing. I recently got an update, and the average eBay sale is now more than double Lyman Allen. And those are for the AU's to MS63's that she's largely been selling off. The key coins, and the pop scarcities are going for much more than that.
Your problem is that you keep on relying on Lyman Allen's catalog, but his pricing is out touch with reality. For example, He lists the 1912-S peso in MS65 as a $2,750 coin. It recently sold at auction for $62,500 (I was the underbidder).
But let's turn back to the 1904-S. Yes, a small hoard (half a bag) of 1904-S pesos was discovered about 5 years ago. But the coins were horribly bag marked and mostly ranged between AU 58 and MS 62. In MS 63 it's quite scarce.
As Marlon Brando said in "The Godfather", "Let's reason together." Okay, Allen lists the 1904-S in MS65 at $350. Do you know what the combined NGC/PCGS pop of that coin in MS 65 is? Barring a recent addition, it's pop 1/0. One gem, unique, and listed as $350. Isn't this insanity? Do you see why I say he's out of touch with reality? It's a $10,000 coin.
And if it's $10,000 in 65, it's probably $3,000 in MS 64, which is still a condition rarity. And probably $500 to $800 in MS63 which is a condition scarcity (as opposed to rarity). It's only in MS62 where the half-bag kicks in and he lists it at approximately $175. Well double that, because that's what the common dates of the US-PI series are selling for in common condition, and you get $350. So $350 in 62 ... and again, $515 in MS63 is quite reasonable.
Bottom line: the buyer got a bargain at $515.
You've been smart in the US Philippines. You've picked off a number of nice coins raw and on the cheap, in the Philippines at the auctions. That's because the Philippines are in recession, and the collectors there can't bid against you. Nor can I because I'm no longer there as much as I used to be.
But those Philippine auctions are a source of raw coins that's entirely unavailable for the typical US buyer. They have to buy from eBay which is still the cheapest source of certified US-Philippine coins. The alternatives are buying from one of the dealers who specialize in these coins who are all a lot pricier than eBay. Or from the Heritage, Superior, and Stacks auction circuit, where, as I previously noted, you see coins like the 1912-S peso go for 20 times the catalog value.
The reality is that the US-Philippines have begun moving up. The movement is still just beginning, but you're already making money hand over fist on your collection. But again, these are coins that are extraordinarily scarce in mint state from choice to gem. And with demand just beginning to rock and roll, I think you still have at least a 10-fold movement up.
Still, after a 10-fold movement up, the US-Philippines will still be only a quarter to a tenth of what a comparable US-US coin with that pop would go for. That's where it's going to end up. So sit back, relax, and enjoy enormous appreciation of your collection.
Oh, one last thought -- I don't think the US-Philippine proofs will appreciate nearly as much. They've been better preserved than the business strikes. They'll go up, but it's only the top of the line: the 1905's in gem and up ... the 1904, 06, and 08 in Proof 66 and up ... and the 1903 in 67 and up.
Warm regards from Bangkok,
Just Having Fun
1/2 Cents
U.S. Revenue Stamps
<< <i>
<< <i>I dunno what JHF makes of it, but I for one wish that the eBay sellers would spend less bandwidth on longwinded listings in large colored fonts, and more on the pictures. Geez, such a riot of color and wordiness on that page, all for one teeny picture! >>
I get a kick out of the sellers that include a history of what happened around the time that the coin was minted or some other such thing. Seems like a lot to go through. >>
Would be interesting to see how sellers would handle it if they had a choice from only two or three fonts no larger than 16pt; bold, italic or underline only, one color (black) and limited to 600 words max. for the description
Hi DesertRat:
The Spanish Philippines are, with a few exceptions like the 1885 10 centavo, also extraordinarily rare in mint state. And until recently they were far more expensive than the US-Philppines.
But they appeal to a different collector base. The Spanish Philppines are collected largely by Philippine numismatists and by collectors of Spanish coinage. Since the Philippines have been in a recession since Estrada came to power, the Spanish Philippines remain expensive, but haven't moved up.
By contrast, the US-Philippines are finding a different collector base -- Philippine numismatists and US coin collectors. And the US collector base is the largest single bunch of collectors of any coinage. More and more US collectors are nibbling at the US-Philippines because they're attractive, challenging, and US. Extremely scarce supply and increasing demand is a sure formula for higher prices, and Mr. Filam's amazement at the nigher prices resulting was the source of this thread.
Still, US-Philippine coin prices haven't yet caught up with Spanish Philippines. They've begun closing the gap, yes. Closing it: no. It's commonplace for a nice uncirculated specimen of a Spanish Philippine date to go for well into the lower 5 figures ($12,000 to $30,000). But it's still an occasion when US Philippine coins of similar scarcity pull in the same megabucks.
The Spanish Philippine dates are also harder to buy raw because of clever altered dates. The Tacloban jeweler who made them, also made many bogus US Philippines. But his bogus US Philippines were concentrated in the 1903-S 50 centavos and 1906-S pesos so if you exercised extreme caution in those dates, you were safe. But he actually specialized in the Spanish Philippine coinage because generally speaking he could get more money for the same work.
Even though he retired about 4 years ago (palsy), his works are still commonplace. Indeed, with him retired, I let down my guard and promptly got nailed on one of his altered dates Spanish Philippine coins.
Best wishes,
Just Having Fun
When the children of such couples get introduced to coin collecting, (I was 12 when my interest was piqued), what category do you suppose will hold the most appeal? These coins are themselves half American and half Filipino!
Now, consider this. What adult group drives the extremely high prices for gem quality condition rarity coins? Is it not those who are affluent? And who is likely to become more affluent, the average American child, or the one whose family places great value on education? I submit education is an extremely high priority to such families, and a large percentage of their children will indeed become successful and affluent as adults.
JHF is indeed correct regarding the lure of conditional rarities, and I try to collect as many and as high a condition of such coins as I can find in my budget. But I cannot bid several thousand dollars for an MS65 1928 Centavos, that would likely upgrade to MS66 or MS67, which is currently being auctioned by Heritage and worth every bit of $10,000. Oh how I would love to get that beauty! However, I can indeed get multiple 1904 Philadelphia silver issues, the lowest mintage of any 20th century silver coin intended for circulation! And I CAN get an MS45/50 1928 Mule for $100, including shipping, as I recently did on eBay. So that is what I am targeting as my "horde" for the day when the market for US-PI issues shoots skyward, and it surely will in the next handful of years.
It is certainly something to think about.
I hadn't thought of the impact of the many mixed (American/Filipino) marriages on coin prices, though once you mention it, it's totally obvious. Nice thinking. And you're right -- this is a factor that will have an impact on the prices of middle-of-the-road coins as well as the scarcer dates and higher grades.
Nice thinking, and thank you!
Just Having Fun