Explain the skyrocketing prices

JZrarities

I just don't fully understand the large price increases for the Russian and German coins...

I know it's supply/demand driven, and I would imagine the opening of the Soviet Union to a more capitalistic society has let loose more money chasing the coins of this Realm. Is that true, or can you explain the root cause of the sharp increases in a more informed way...?

How about the new found demand for German coins? Will this translate to other European countries like Italy? What countries are next?

JMHO, but the prices paid for some of the Russian material seem very steep to me... I wish I had purchased some early Russian gold about 3-4 years ago when I first became interested...THOUGHTS?

IstilllikeZARcoins

ZAR prices are increasing at a nice rate too.

I'm not talking about F / VF coins here but the higher grade coins. High grade ZAR's are fairly scarce especially for the dates between 1893 & 1896. Prices are much stronger now then say a year ago.

It'll be interesting to see what sort of prices these coins will fetch in about 20 years.

cladking

Krause has the disconcerting habit of raising prices in large steps. They also
will sometimes change them according to some formulae which won't necessarily
really apply to all the affected coins.

The changes in Russian coins are no doubt quite real and pressure has been
building on these coins for years. Much of the cause is building interest world
wide but an expanding domestic middle class is also exerting a lot of demand.

I'm not real familiar with the changes in German coins so won't comment.

JZrarities

<< <i>The changes in Russian coins are no doubt quite real and pressure has been
building on these coins for years. Much of the cause is building interest world
wide but an expanding domestic middle class is also exerting a lot of demand. >>



I know the demand is very real, and it makes sense that it is from an expanding Middle Class...

Do you think it's the middle class of Russia, Worldwide, or U.S. that's fueling the demand for Russian coins?

SYRACUSIAN

Do you think it's the middle class of Russia, Worldwide, or U.S. that's fueling the demand for Russian coins?


If I had to take a guess, all three. By worlwide we mean the Russian expats who litterally don't know what to do with their money, especially the Yeltsin generation of billionaires. Collectables is only a tiny fraction of where this money is spent, in others sectors it is plainly disgusting, but noone refuses to sell his house for 5 times its market value. For more, I highly recommend to read Taki's column in the Spectator.

laurentyvan

Russian/French coins are hot.

Several months ago I sold a Russian 1860BM, 1 Kopek, CH UNC, for $577 among a number of other Russian coins- right time, right place, I guess. MY cost 3 years ago was, well, less than (expletive deleted- so low, you wouldn't believe it); under $30 I think. That's been the story with Russian coins and French FDC sets purchased a few years ago. Do I feel guilty? No, they were top quality condition- again, right time, right place when I bought them.

Most of the coins went to Eastern/Western Europe/France...maybe a couple to the US. From my point of view the native collector bodies in these countries are definitely buying back their coins. And enthusiastically!

If I had, in quantity, France 1966 FDC, 1967 FDC, 1977FDC and nice russian coppers- why I'd be a happy seller.

covers

In the last 4 years there has been a tremendous influx of money coming into collectibles field from Russia. In stamps, the Russians have been buying world class rarities beyond Russian material. At sales I have attended in England, I have seen young Russian buyers (possibly agents for principals) buying over $2m at a sale of only $5m total.

Historically, the Russians have been a great collecting culture and, even repressed for a few generations, the gene must be strong. I fully expect Russian material to increase in value very rapidly maybe being outpaced only by Chinese material.

coinkat

Keep in mind that quality Russian material was ignored for years. The same can be said for Poland. There is no question that the increase clearly has been dramatic. The real question is... How much quality material really exists?

worldcoinguy

<< <i>The real question is... How much quality material really exists? >>



You can be certain that counterfeiters are working hard to try to add to those numbers.

1jester

Kat poses a legitimate question: how much quality material really exists? Surely this is one of the main reasons for astronomical price increases; there simply isn't much material to share, and in the case of Russia, there's a whole lot of money chasing these few goods. I don't think the dynamics have quite caught up in the case of Polish material yet, since very few Poles have anywhere near enough money to push prices really high; in other words, I expect severe price increases IF Poles ever get wealthy. Regardless, prices increases for Polish material the past few years is indicative that these rarities are definitely being sought out. I don't know anything about the market for German coins.

JZrarities

I'm more interested in WHO is pushing up the prices of the Russian material...When I see coins that went for $30-$40 a few years ago now sell for over $500 I am wondering what everyone knows that I don't...Are you willing to pay these prices? Most of these pieces aren't spectacular quality and seem overpriced to me. Anything of average quality seems to be going for an abnormally high price...
My question is WHERE is the demand coming from?

covers

Demand coming from Russia - and dealers elsewhere who sell to the Russians. Simple.

cladking

I agree, much of the demand is domestic.

The Soviets strongly discouraged collecting because they didn't believe
it contributed much to the state. While there was not much persecution
they did run block on the coin clubs and the industry. Still there were
some collector organizations and it was fairly popular under the circum-
stances.

I suspect that modern Soviet coins (1931-1980) are in much shorter
supply than almost anyone imagines and most are worn. It will take
time to see what emerges from this era as scarce but already there are
many stirrings. Even the Soviet collectors of the era tended to have a
strong preference for the old empire and Russian coins.

secondrepublic

A surprising number of big-time Polish collectors live in the U.S. Numerically there are a lot more collectors in Poland, obviously, but a disproportionate number of the wealthy collectors live here. Like Jester said I think the prices will rise steeply once Poles as a nation become more wealthy. In the time period I collect, 1920s and 30s, there is very little high quality, high end material, and prices at that level have at least tripled since 2002.

MacCrimmon

<< <i>In the last 4 years there has been a tremendous influx of money coming into collectibles field from Russia. In stamps, the Russians have been buying world class rarities beyond Russian material. At sales I have attended in England, I have seen young Russian buyers (possibly agents for principals) buying over $2m at a sale of only $5m total.

Historically, the Russians have been a great collecting culture and, even repressed for a few generations, the gene must be strong. I fully expect Russian material to increase in value very rapidly maybe being outpaced only by Chinese material. >>



The first Hesselgesser had many Russians in attendance, and they had very large pre-approved lines of credit. I viewed lots next to one of them one afternoon, and he asked permission to pull one of his ultra gems from his briefcase to compare to the Hesselgesser piece. His was a finer coin. This particular guy was definitely a collector. Another young Russian, maybe 25-30, had his wife or girlfriend in tow. I think she spent most of her time on Rodeo Drive.

Hesselgesser's Russian coins were indeed very high quality, and the Russ contingent also were ready buyers at the sale.


Now, tell me Covers, are these Russians at UK sales also buying British material?

covers

Yes - buying everything in sight in Russian material plus the very rare, high quality British Empire and Eastern Europe (Like Romania).

The men I saw were also under 30 years old.

secondrepublic

I agree with the interesting comment that Russia has a long history of coin collecting and that is part of what is driving the market. Poland does too, going back well into the 1800s, and even during communist times a good deal of numismatic literature and research was published. The rise in prices is built on decades of widespread collecting, combined with newfound wealth on the part of a small number.

laurentyvan

Not just coins but coin references and Russian exonumia. Coins of Russia brought strong money for me as did this, an item given to me by a dealer with purchase of Russian coins.:Russian Bank Bag Seal

bidask

At the NYINC, I was told by a dealer from the US who belongs to the IAPN (Int'l Association Professional Numismatists) that German and Latin America are undervalued.

coinkat

Latin America is undervalued... I am not so sure about Germany.