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What happens when a PSA 10 goes from a Pop 7 to a Pop 11 in three months?

XanaduNowXanaduNow Posts: 1,718
in Trading Cards & Memorabilia Forum
I was just looking at auctions for a PSA 10 '85 Leaf Clemens on vcp.com. I thought this was interesting.

11/02/06 Pop. 7 out of 682 cards graded

01/30/07 Pop. 11 out of 740 graded

So in the next 58 cards graded by PSA since the first auction there were 4 more GEM MINT Clemens added. And did you notice the seller in both of the auctions? Different cert #'s too. That guy must crack a lot of Leaf.

Arthur

Comments

  • djspanndjspann Posts: 541 ✭
    Mmmmmmmmmmm Leaf.

    I hate being the November bidder, for even $10. $1200 to $600 would make me sick to my stomach for quite a while...


    Doug
  • BoopottsBoopotts Posts: 6,784 ✭✭
    One of those sold for some kind of unholy number-- I think it was around $3000-- a few months ago, and I imagine that got the natives restless. When people see a closing price like that they're more inclined to fire up the ol' Dremel tool and buy a $6 PSA lottery ticket
  • 80sJunkie80sJunkie Posts: 1,314
    Art I sent in 40 of those leaf clemens since 7/06 I bought 2 cases at national last year and cracked em all and sent in the clemens. I got 1 10 out of 40
  • mosaicmosaic Posts: 700 ✭
    This is one of the things I find most interesting about graded cards... watching what happens to the realized prices when a 1 of 1 becomes a 1 of 2 or a 1 out of 15. There's a ton of unopened 80's product out there. When someone with a full garage sees a low-pop go for hundreds or thousands, it gives them incentive to bust a buncha wax and submit their cards. Eventually a few more 10s get added to the pop report and find their way to eBay, driving prices down. Sucks for people that bought that specific low-pop card for its highest price, but it's great for set collectors or people that want other cards from that particular set in graded form.

    It's an interesting phenomenon...
    Nolan Ryan & Edgar Martinez are my favorite players...
    image
    mosaic's Nolan Ryan Basic Topps registry set
    mosaic's Big 3 Nolan Ryan Run Showcase
  • basestealerbasestealer Posts: 1,579 ✭
    Not just tons of unopned product, but tons of gem mint cards sitting ungraded in collections across the world, and tons of cards in other grading service holders. The population reports are completely useless when determining how many gem mint examples of a card exist. It only serves to show how many gem mint examples have been graded and slabbed by PSA at particular point in time.
  • theczartheczar Posts: 1,590 ✭✭
    at the end of 2004 there was a card in the 1966 set (#437 al stanek) that had 2 PSA 9's and 0 10's. Fast forward 26 months and there are 21 9's and 7 10's. Of course I was in the beginning buying group when this "low pop" was selling for $300 as a 9 and $600 for the 10.
    now the 9 goes for $30 and the 10 cannot even get a bid at $199. it makes you wonder if a 40 year card has this many coming out of the woodwork with relatively very little wax/vending laying then how many modern 10's are sitting in unopened packages just waiting to inflate the population of gem mints.

    although i have little will power i think the best way to build a set is to track it for a year before you buy one card. if you really know the market and have patience you can save a LOT of money. i see larry mayer doing this as a bottom feeder and i admire his patience.

    unfortunately we americans have been brought up with the "i want it now and lots of it" mentality and that plays into the sellers hands.
  • larryallen73larryallen73 Posts: 6,067 ✭✭✭
    This is why I sell all my 10's and most of my 9's. A well centered 8 looks very good to ME usually.
  • CDsNutsCDsNuts Posts: 10,092 ✭
    A guy probably opened a case or two in which all the Clemens had nice centering. Centering was remarkably consistent for each card over a whole case, and if the Clemenses were coming out 50/50, then all he had to do weed out the ones with no flaking on the edges/corners. Sure it's easier said than done, but if the case hadn't been disturbed since 1985, it's certainly within the realm of possibility. I wouldn't be surprised if all the new ones came from the same submitter.

    Lee
  • stownstown Posts: 11,321 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Clemenses >>



    Clemeni?

    image
    So basically my kid won't be able to go to college, but at least I'll have a set where the three most expensive cards are of a player I despise ~ CDsNuts
  • TreetopTreetop Posts: 1,474 ✭
    How about one submission. I have submitted from vending 3-4 examples of the same card and pull all 10's So instead of a 1 of 1, I have a 1of 3 or 4, but I'm holding the other 3.

    Example from an older invoice

    24 81537052 1975 TOPPS 613 BILL PARSONS N/A 10
    25 81537053 1975 TOPPS 613 BILL PARSONS N/A 10
    26 81537054 1975 TOPPS 613 BILL PARSONS N/A 10

    So when I go to sell, I can't give it the old 1of 1 in the title

    I know, its a great problem to have!
    Link to my current Ebay auctions

    "If I ever decided to do a book, I've already got the title-The Bases Were Loaded and So Was I"-Jim Fregosi
  • cravetoppscravetopps Posts: 1,134
    I would imagine that the proportion of unopened or ungraded cards is directly proportional to the year the et was issued. This sounds fairly obvious and I believe it is one of the reasons vintage cards are probably less likely to be impacted by this. And, it is why some of the modern stuff will be heavily impacted and a questionable investment assuming someone is buying cards as an investment. I was buying 75 Topps Minis until it became obvious that there were still unopened cases out there and who really knows how many. Centering is tough but if there are enough cases, then those pops will increase dramatically. And, not everyone is going to grade non-stars anyway so the common pops are still waiting in the wings to explode. So, I am sitting on the sidelines.
    Mark B.

    Seeking primarily PSA graded pre-war "type" cards

    My PSA Registry Sets

    34 Goudey, 75 Topps Mini, Hall of Fame Complete Set, 1985 Topps Tiffany, Hall of Fame Players Complete Set
  • TheVonTheVon Posts: 2,725 ✭


    << <i>I would imagine that the proportion of unopened or ungraded cards is directly proportional to the year the et was issued. This sounds fairly obvious and I believe it is one of the reasons vintage cards are probably less likely to be impacted by this. And, it is why some of the modern stuff will be heavily impacted and a questionable investment assuming someone is buying cards as an investment. I was buying 75 Topps Minis until it became obvious that there were still unopened cases out there and who really knows how many. Centering is tough but if there are enough cases, then those pops will increase dramatically. And, not everyone is going to grade non-stars anyway so the common pops are still waiting in the wings to explode. So, I am sitting on the sidelines. >>



    I guess that means you won't be outbidding me anymore for a while! image Your set was moving up the charts pretty quickly! I am still actively collecting the minis, but I have to agree with you. It seems like there are new cases being cracked all the time and there's been a huge influx of graded minis over the past several months. Interestingly enough, prices have not gone down accordingly. It seems demand has risen to meet the supply. I used to pick up PSA 8 commons for about $6-8 including shipping. Now, just 6 months later, I'm finding it hard to win an auction for less than $12-15 including shipping. I don't expect this to last, however. Eventually the impatient among us will get their cards and those of us who either waited on the sidelines or couldn't afford to stay in the bidding can come back in and pick up our missing cards at lesser rates.

    It seems like the only thing that could really maintain the value of any card or set of cards will be an increase in the amount of people willing to fork over their money for graded cards. I wonder if PSA has ever talked to eBay about some sort of advertising partnership? I think there are still a significant amount of graded card collectors that aren't aware of the Set Registry. It's clear to me that interest in the registry not only drives up prices on eBay, but it keeps cards coming into PSA as well.

    Now I'm just rambling . . . sorry everybody!
  • 80sJunkie80sJunkie Posts: 1,314
    Heres a modern one 1989 fleer bill ripken black scribble errors.
    3 months ago there was only 8 psa 10's

    then my nov and dec sub come back
    2 31248731 1989 FLEER 616 BILL RIPKEN SCRIBBLE OVER ERROR 9
    2 31248732 1989 FLEER 616 BILL RIPKEN SCRIBBLE OVER ERROR 9
    2 31248733 1989 FLEER 616 BILL RIPKEN SCRIBBLE OVER ERROR 9
    2 31248734 1989 FLEER 616 BILL RIPKEN SCRIBBLE OVER ERROR 9
    2 31248735 1989 FLEER 616 BILL RIPKEN SCRIBBLE OVER ERROR 9
    2 31248736 1989 FLEER 616 BILL RIPKEN SCRIBBLE OVER ERROR 10
    2 31248737 1989 FLEER 616 BILL RIPKEN SCRIBBLE OVER ERROR 10

    6 12535490 1989 FLEER 616 BILL RIPKEN SCRIBBLE OVER ERROR 10
    6 12535491 1989 FLEER 616 BILL RIPKEN SCRIBBLE OVER ERROR 9
    6 12535492 1989 FLEER 616 BILL RIPKEN SCRIBBLE OVER ERROR 10
    6 12535493 1989 FLEER 616 BILL RIPKEN SCRIBBLE OVER ERROR 10
    6 12535494 1989 FLEER 616 BILL RIPKEN SCRIBBLE OVER ERROR 10
    6 12535495 1989 FLEER 616 BILL RIPKEN SCRIBBLE OVER ERROR 10
    Heck this dec sub 5 out of 6 got 10's and i expected all 9's



    bam now theres 15 when there was only 8 i sold my 2 for over 200 now that the pop doubled i only got 140 for the one last week on ebay

    So my advice anyone with modern 10's sell while you can
  • 5STAT5STAT Posts: 835
    I'm with Treetop..

    I had the same thing happen with similar vending..

    I was submitting 74's and the Indians team card was a 1 of 1 in PSA 10 form..
    I sent in 5..got back 5 9's...so I sent 5 more...got back 4- 9's and an 8....so I sent 10 more hoping and praying for the 2nd PSA 10.

    well.....I got back 4- 9's and 6- 10's!!!!!

    Killed the market on that card before it even took off!!
  • thenarcissus01thenarcissus01 Posts: 344


    << <i>One of those sold for some kind of unholy number-- I think it was around $3000-- a few months ago, and I imagine that got the natives restless. When people see a closing price like that they're more inclined to fire up the ol' Dremel tool and buy a $6 PSA lottery ticket >>



    Not sure, but I think it went for $3000 when it was 1 of 3. Boy, sure wish I sold that one!
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