Need some Math help, please

Tunispaul

The 2002 Bowman Draft and Prospect baseball set has Gold Refractors numbered to 50. The autographed cards have no numbering but are rumored to be around 35 copies according to Beckett. How do they come up with this number? Here are the insertion odds. Any gold refractor(numbered to 50) is 1 out of 67 packs. The base set is 1-165. The autographed gold refractors are numbered from 166-175.(Ten cards total). The odds are 1 out of 1,546 packs that you pull one of these ten autographed gold refractors. Can you also determine the number of boxes or total cases produced from these numbers? Math is not my strong point so I will put my faith to the group to figure this out.

storm888

How many cards in a pack?

Tunispaul

Two chrome cards.

jmbkb4

I used to be so much smarter. Wish I could help.

storm888

54,100 packs opened would exhaust the gr-autos.

1546 * 35 = 54,100

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Right ?

storm888

Or,

If it is 35 of each 10, the multiplier is 350

541,000 packs opened, exhauts the autos.


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Correct ?

storm888

Once your odds-chart exhausts the autos, simply:

Divide the total number of packs by the number of packs
in each box. Divide that number by the number of boxes
in a case.

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Right ?

5STAT

storm....I think that's the odds of finding all 10....if you hit NO dupes....correct?


let's see....10 cards X 35 of each.=350

350 x 1546 = 541,000 packs to get them all......again ON average....so if they didn't pad the numbers....take that number divide it by the number of packs per box....then boxes per case...and you sgould have a guestimate of the case production.

storm888

"storm....I think that's the odds of finding all 10....if you hit NO dupes....correct?"

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EDITED: Now, I think that is not right. It is the odds of finding one of the cards.


The odds are 1 out of 1,546 packs that you pull one of these ten autographed gold refractors.

Once all the mfgd packs are opened, all of the cards are found.

The part I'm not clear on is whether there are 35 total autos or 350 total autos.

In any event, the math is correct.

But, it does not seem like very many packs were made, relatively speaking.

Tunispaul

storm888,
I think the second one would probably be right. There 35 copies(supposedly) of each of the ten autographed gold refractor cards. That would , of course, make the total number of autographed gold refractors at 350 copies(regardless of player). So you are basically telling me that there were 541,000 packs, right? 24 packs make a box, and I think that 10 boxes make a case. So the print run of these cards is 22,541 packs. Which would equal to 2,254 cases, right? This is all good but the question still remains: Can we find out exactly how many gold refractors there are, per player, if they are not numbered, based on the insertion odds? Bowman(Topps) labels the back of each of these cards with a sticker that has a serial number on it. I would like to track the serial numbers from these stickers to see if there could be any correlation to the number of total cards per player. My head hurts now, so I will go to bed.

storm888

"So you are basically telling me that there were 541,000 packs, right?"

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That would seem to be right.

The balance of your question, I fear, is above my
pay grade, but I will contemplate it a bit.

Tunispaul

Just a bump to see if someone else has an opinion or some knowledge on how to do this. Thanks in advance