Maybe a forum member with Deep Pockets can hit a show and blindly buy 100 OGH coins, crack them out and send them in. That would give you a random percentage!
Otherwise, depending on who looks for the OGH, somewhere between 0 and 100% will upgrade.
It is not exactly cheating, I prefer to consider it creative problem solving!!!
Marty's first answer was correct. People always want to generalize this point, and I do not want to get trapped. Ahh, what the heck. If the coin is from a really fresh old collection that just came to market and has not been picked over it is much more likely than the OGH coin you would typically see on the bourse or on ebay.
Whatever the percentage is now, it's certainly less than it was a few years ago. Many bumpable OGHs have already been upgraded. That having been said, there are still deals to be found.
"Giving away an MS-65 $20 St. Gaudens to everyone logged in when I make my 10,000th post..."
I would have to say that a much smaller percentae today than a few years ago. The crack out artists have gone through a considerable amount and what is left over most likely would not upgrade.
Again the old saying buy the coin not the holder and you will do just fine.
From what I've seen at the auctions and on the floor of the shows...the ogh's want to get a premium price because they are ogh's. But, looking at the coins in the ogh's, they have been well picked over. The ogh is cool but you gotta watch the coins. Also, you have to be on your grading technique...just because it's in and ogh, it may not be what you wish it could be. Also, a nice group of ogh's in a series does look cool maybe that's worth a bit of a premium.
<< <i>Whatever the percentage is now, it's certainly less than it was a few years ago. Many bumpable OGHs have already been upgraded. That having been said, there are still deals to be found. >>
Last summer, I bought 54 Barber dimes in "fresh" OGH that had been submitted only once to PCGS, in 1990. Of those, the most promising 28 coins were submitted to PCGS for re-grading. 18 out of 28 upgraded by exactly one point. Of course, these numbers are skewed because I picked the 28 coins that I thought were most likely to upgrade. Therefore, saying that 18 out of 54 (very close to one third) upgraded, may be a more accurate statement. Maybe this number is a bit higher (closer to 40%) if you figure that a few of the coins not submitted may have been bumped up.
Now if I go to Baltimore show and buy the first 100 OGH I see, I bet that only 10% or less of those upgade. I'd also wager that every single one of those upgraded coins was not valuable enough to be worth submitting. That is because there are a lot of crackout artists who are very good at what they do, and undergraded coins are seldom seen on the bourse floor.
I'd concur that 20-40% of a fresh deal of most 1986-1990 coins would upgrade. After being picked through once or more, the odds fall dramatically. An ogh upgrade from your typical "tired" bourse floor coin dealer's case is probably 0-5% at best. But when running into deals that appear fresh, the odds are STACKED in your favor, esp if the previous owner had a decent (and obvious) eye for quality.
Maybe the next game is to gather a few hundred picked through ogh's/rattler's and offer them as a "deal" to some newbie. Anyone worth their salt would instantly recognize that the coins were average or had problems....and therefore pass if a solid premium were being asked.
Enjoy the premium associated with the OGH. Most have already been cracked out. If you're not absolutely sure, keep it in the OGH. Despite the adage, some people do buy the holder and not the coin.....
Spare your best friend's life!! Adopt an adult dog at your local "kill" animal shelter. You will be changed.
I'd say the landscape with NGC fatties is FAR superior to PCGS old holders. One reason is many people are afraid of the white plastic and just won't touch it no matter how nice it looks. One of my local dealers is like that. I'd probably much prefer to look at a fresh group of fatties as the hit rate tends to be pretty good. The only falling down point is that NGC did assign high grades to very clean, but darkly toned coins in the 1987-1990 era. Those won't upgrade and can be considered tainted goods. There are many classic commems buried in such holders. I recently bought a fresh fattie Connecticut commem that was extremely "wholesome." The seller knew it and had sat on it since 1990. Regardless, he still underestimated it somewhat.
You are speaking directly to me here ... I have on my desk at this minute a neat Sesqui commem in a 63 fattie, with the best strike and cleanest surfaces I have seen on this issue, but the toning ... ugh ... the reverse is quite lovely, very tolerable with good luster beneath flecky auburn kind of stuff, but the obverse is more wholely paved with a frankly dreary brown. I'm going to break the sucker out and give it a shot, as there is not much to lose ...
If I were to do purely scientific statistical analysis for all the OGH I have sent in and recieved a higher grade, and use a standard bell shaped curve? Let's see, carry the one...zero%.
Dennis88
Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭
Comments
Otherwise, depending on who looks for the OGH, somewhere between 0 and 100% will upgrade.
-Paul
Again the old saying buy the coin not the holder and you will do just fine.
<< <i>somewhere between 0 and 100% >>
SmartA$$
Some upgrade, some do not. Its takes one of the "CrackOut Experts" (Russ and/or MadMarty)
TorinoCobra71
<< <i>Whatever the percentage is now, it's certainly less than it was a few years ago. Many bumpable OGHs have already been upgraded. That having been said, there are still deals to be found. >>
Yup, that's certainly true.
Now if I go to Baltimore show and buy the first 100 OGH I see, I bet that only 10% or less of those upgade. I'd also wager that every single one of those upgraded coins was not valuable enough to be worth submitting. That is because there are a lot of crackout artists who are very good at what they do, and undergraded coins are seldom seen on the bourse floor.
Maybe the next game is to gather a few hundred picked through ogh's/rattler's and offer them as a "deal" to some newbie. Anyone worth their salt would instantly recognize that the coins were average or had problems....and therefore pass if a solid premium were being asked.
roadrunner
roadrunner
<< <i>I see a lot more overgraded OGHs and Rattlers than undergraded ones now. >>
I agree with this. It's amazing that the public perception is 180 degrees opposite of reality.
sent in a 1909-s 64 red lincoln in a ogh....came home a 65 red.
*note*......it really deserved a 65 .....possible shot 66
OGH MS63
OGH MS64 RD
RATTLER MS65 RD