1909- 2009 Lincoln Cent Scenerio

braddick

Do you believe, if a collector went about quietly yet firmly buying up many 1909-S VDB certified Lincolns on the market (in a mix of grades) he would do well in 2009 when it came time to sell? Will there be a spike in the price of Lincolns and especially key dates such as the 09-S VDB two years from now when the Lincoln cent reaches its 100 birthday, or will there not be enough excitment to warrant such an expensive project?

commoncents05

i doubt that the CENTennial will cause a huge influx of penny collectors. if they are new collectors, i doubt they would be willing to sink nearly $1000 into a little penny. I think the person would do well overall, S VDB's (for me anyways) have always been good investments. i've sold 2 in the last 2 months.

-Paul

clackamas

A better strategy would be to uy up the 09-VDB's.

coppercoins

I would think a buy-up of shorter set material might be something to watch for. Lincoln cents have been around for so long, I highly doubt there will be a mad rush to complete a set just because it finally ended after 101 years of production.

Shorter set material....like the possibility that 1999 statehood quarters will see a spike when the program is over, will probably be a much better buy for the money. That plus I believe the value of 1909S cents (VDB or not) is already too high and overrated. They are FAR more available than many other years of Lincolns that go basically ignored. If you did lot viewing at the FUN show, you might have noticed that pretty much a full box of 1909S VDB cents could have been had at the right price. Compare this to not one single 1931D cent available in the same sale (to my knowledge).

Although to a much lesser degree, all of the 1909 Lincoln cents suffer from what I call the Bicentennial Blight...people saved the 1976 coinage in such large numbers, they could be moved around from place to place even now using forklifts. Uncirculated rolls of 1976 half dollars can still be had at any major bank for face value. If they have any real appreciable value in my lifetime I would be surprised. Thing is, the low mintage of the 1909 cents was enough to create and sustain a market for them even though they were saved ad-nauseum from the time they were minted.

But to go out and buy up all the overpriced 1909 coins now because of the possibility of a market push in two years...too far fetched for my dollar.

cladking

The cent could be discontinued at any time for circulation and it still
seems unlikely it can make it until 2009. This would cause the big
spike in interest to start early.

Both the cent and nickel are probably near critical mass as far as their
ability to circulate are concerned. When these start disappearing fas-
ter than the mint can increase production there will be absolutely no
choice but to find a substitute for the nickel. It seems unlikely that the
mint would want to try keeping cents in circulation during this period.

The cents will be made in 2009 for mint and proof sets most likely but
they may well disappear in advance.

While the S-VDB is probably a shoe-in for gains there will be many others
with larger percentage gains. Try putting away a few nice gem '68 cents
without carbon spots. You can probably pick these up for a few dollars
now if you can find them.

RedTiger

My opinion is that the risk is high and the reward average. Both the key date coin and the centennial are well known. In an efficient market all information is already in the current price. There are probably quite a few speculators already buying up Lincolns and supporting the current prices.

Key dates have had a spectacularly good run the past five years or so. A 20% or even a 35% correction in prices would not be out of line, even if the coin bull market remains intact. If a real bear shows up, perhaps due to a bad economy, many key dates could get a 50% haircut in a few months time. Like I said, I see high risk in the strategy as outlined, even if there is only a 10% chance of the steep correction, and maybe 5% chance of a real bear market during the time period.

A two year holding period is a long time. What happens in the interim if prices wobble and then soften? Does the player double down or cut their losses? Me, I cut my losses, but many folks will continue to double down until they can't do it anymore. These kind of folks tend to go broke sooner or later.

It could work out just fine, however, I am sure there are easier, less risky ways to make similar money.

Burks

<< <i>A better strategy would be to uy up the 09-VDB's. >>



Don't listen to him. He knows nothing.

CaptHenway

<< <i>A better strategy would be to uy up the 09-VDB's. >>



The telemarketers have already been doing that for years. The buy on Goods is up to $8.
TD

WaterSport

We may all be kicking ourselves in thee short years. I think that there are more scenarios than you can shake a stick at. I think a lot has to do with how the mint closes out the cent and the press builds up about it. Will if bring back folks who once collected as a Kid and have the resources to get those 14-D’s and 09SVDB’s? Will average cir wheat’s finally break 10 Cents? Will Matte Proofs and Early Wheat Proofs finally match there scarcity due to demand. Who the heck knows, but I for one will be watching!

WS