How did the 1975 Topps set lose 1/3 of its value over the past five years?

Estil

Okay, almost everyone here knows that 1975 Topps is one of the most popular of all Topps baseball sets. Not only for its bold colorful design (which unfortunately makes it a bit more difficult to find top condition cards) but also for its George Brett and Robin Yount rookies. That being said, how come the set is now down to $500 BV (2006 Beckett Baseball Card Almanac) when back in 2000 (Beckett Annual Guide #22) it was worth $750; that's a full 1/3 drop in value!! I mean, as someone who's wanting this set someday, I'm certainly not complaining but still, I'm quite curious as to how such a super popular and beautiful set could've lost so much value in just a few years. I mean, it's not like Mr. Brett or Mr. Yount hit a slump or got injured or anything.

scooter729

Good question. My best guess would be that the main stars (Brett and Yount, Ryan, Schmidt) are not in the news at all now, while in 2000 they were still popular names with HOF voting still ongoing for these guys. Also, these cards in NM raw condition are not exactly super scarce, so while high-end graded cards of these folks will always get top dollar, the demand for '75 (along with '70s in general) has waned a bit since 2000.

Estil

<< <i>Good question. My best guess would be that the main stars (Brett and Yount, Ryan, Schmidt) are not in the news at all now, while in 2000 they were still popular names with HOF voting still ongoing for these guys. Also, these cards in NM raw condition are not exactly super scarce, so while high-end graded cards of these folks will always get top dollar, the demand for '75 (along with '70s in general) has waned a bit since 2000. >>



So I guess I picked a good time to start buying 1970s sets again, eh? Maybe a run going back to 1974 is within reach after all.

drewsef

maybe it's not an actual true drop in value, but a reflection of Beckett actually trying to properly value a set that they have been outdated on like everything else. If it were me personally doing the set thing like you are, once I started getting back to the pricier years, I would buy graded examples in 8 or 9 of the stars and top rookies and do the rest of the set raw as I feel that is a better long term store of value

theczar

simple-supply is up and demand has not kept up with it. there have been 78000 cards graded PSA 8 or higher. this set is nice looking and popular but for most of the cards you are not going to see huge bidding wars. plus that there are boatloads getting graded each week the price has no place to go but down.

however whatever drop this set has taken it pales in comparison to what is happening to 1986 fleer basketball. there is still plenty of wax out there on this 132 card set which is 1/5 of the size of the 1975 baseball so it much easier to put together. yes there are popular superstars in the basketball set, but that thing is not even close to bottoming out.

Estil

<< <i>maybe it's not an actual true drop in value, but a reflection of Beckett actually trying to properly value a set that they have been outdated on like everything else. If it were me personally doing the set thing like you are, once I started getting back to the pricier years, I would buy graded examples in 8 or 9 of the stars and top rookies and do the rest of the set raw as I feel that is a better long term store of value >>



It'd be for my permanent collection so I don't need to pay extra for a label/number, unless the set had some serious counterfeiting issues (1984 Fleer Update) or is very prone to doctoring borders and such (1971 Topps). So I just want to get the very best raw sets I can find, and then upgrade as neccesary. I hope to go at least as far back as 1974 because prior to that year you have the sets done by series which makes them much more expensive (especially the last series), and most likely out of my price range.

Estil

<< <i>simple-supply is up and demand has not kept up with it. there have been 78000 cards graded PSA 8 or higher. this set is nice looking and popular but for most of the cards you are not going to see huge bidding wars. plus that there are boatloads getting graded each week the price has no place to go but down.

however whatever drop this set has taken it pales in comparison to what is happening to 1986 fleer basketball. there is still plenty of wax out there on this 132 card set which is 1/5 of the size of the 1975 baseball so it much easier to put together. yes there are popular superstars in the basketball set, but that thing is not even close to bottoming out. >>



But isn't that supposed to be the 1952 Topps of basketball?

1960toppsguy

1986 FLEER Basketball has to be the most over hyped set of all time. I'm glad I didn't buy in to that stock.

gosteelers

<< <i>1986 FLEER Basketball has to be the most over hyped set of all time. I'm glad I didn't buy in to that stock. >>



Out of curiosity, what was the peak price for the Jordan RC?

tennesseebanker

If you were wanting to put together a nice 75 Topps set, Now would be a good time in my opinion.
I am slowly accumulating Psa 8's woth a few 9's thrown in. I have found over the years that sets as popular as this one usually regain interest. At these prices over the next few years I plan on building a very nice set.

ctsoxfan

Does anyone really think there is a lot of 1986 Fleer basketball wax still around? I have no proof one way or the other, but it always seemed like this was not the case. Boxes seem to sell for anywhere from $6K to $10K, and the last case I heard about was purchased for $100K.

theczar

Out of curiosity, what was the peak price for the Jordan RC?

not sure how he got but the first day i ever logged onto ebay there was the whole set PSA 10 listed at $500,000 or BIN at $1,000,000. never looked to see if was bid on (very doubtful).

they want to compare it to 1952 baseball out of historical principle. one huge difference there are not hoards of 1952 baseball laying around in mint condition. if you want historical basketball take 1948 or 1957. smaller sets but costly and difficult to get in high condition.

1986 fleer over 48000 psa 8 which are worthless if they are a common--1952 baseball 12101 psa 8's
1986 fleer over 34000 psa 9 vs. 940 psa 9 for 1952 baseball
1986 fleer 4700+ psa 10's (and growing) 52 psa 10's for 1952 baseball.
keep in mind that the baseball has over 3x the amount of cards so the ability to find a high grade per card in basketball is much easier.
there are already 5 collectors who have the whole set in psa 10.

i don't know if it the most overhyped set but it is certainly in that conversation. i respect peoples right to spend and collect what they want
but for a lot of modern collectors i hope they are in it for the joy and the chase part of the hobby because if you think you will make a profit you most likely will be disappointed.

Estil,
like you i have begun the tedious task of 1975, 1976, 1978, 1979 and 1980 collecting in psa 9 or better. i know it will be a big time net loss but the chase is fun for me. it will take many years because of $$$ and the size of the sets. i also got myself roped into the 1977 set in all psa 10. i passed the 25% mark but i doubt if i ever will see the end.

good luck on your pursuit.

soxfan i have no proof either but IMHO i think that there is plenty still out there and plenty more to be graded in psa 9 and 10.

5STAT

I've posted in the past about the 1986 Fleer set and contrary to people's beliefs...it doesn't matter how much WAX is left out there....it the amount of cases that were ripped back when this stuff was JUNK!!

From 1986 through 1987 this stuff was bottom barrel stuff. You could buy boxes for next to nothing and sets wereless than $20. In 1987, I bought 20 sets of 86's for $12 each.

Boxes were selling for cheap money and people started speculating by the beginning of 1988 that things might change. By the end of 1989 and into 1990 basketball had caught up with the collecting craze and sets were up to $400 each. The craze continued into the early 90's and by the time the SHAQ hype of 1992 came along...sets were up to $1,100.

The set kept popularity all these years and the graded market just added a whole new kick to the game.

The thing to keep in mind was that when these boxes were $10-$20 each and dealers were literally STUCK with the product...they ripped and made sets. Customers that bought boxes ripped them and had singles kicking around.

But when they started to take off....a few people started to hoard the singles and cheaper stuff that was laying around. Some sitting on hundred's of thousands of singles. As the sets gained popularity, these guys made fortunes selling off sets and/or partial sets to the public.
Then throw in the grading boom....and this guys hit the jack pot!!

So, is it a rare set...NO....not by any means.
The fact that you get 2+ sets per box means that there's alot of them out on the market place.

It's a set that IF you got into it at the right time...you made alot of money on...
IF you waited and joined the bandwagon hype...you pay through the nose for (whether it's for a nice raw set..or paying for slabbed cards.)

The laws of supply and demand will govern this set for a good time to come! There are still THOUSANDS of ungraded stuff waiting to be sent in....every month that goes by means more and more 9's and 10's in the market place. Thus...8's have become less than valuable...9's are getting commonplace and 10's are starting to loose their luster.

I agree that the set has still a ways to go before it bottoms....like Jordans at $1K+ for a PSA 9.....someday soon you'll see them in the $700-$800 range. Kind of a far cry seeing 8's were close to that only a short time ago.

But it's a matter of collecting what you like!! If you're in it soley for the economic gains....then stay away...
If you're in it for collecting and ther love of sports cards..does it really matter if your sets costs a few bucks more to put together then?

Now Estil, keeping this logic in mind and the fact that there are still people with loads of this stuff out there...
You should be able to get some very nice raw sets for alot less than book price because of the grading factor.
See, people will pull anything that they think is gradable and then refill the set and put it up for sale. Does this mean that these sets are worth less than book? Well, if 70's cards are booked at NM-MT values and the sets that are up for sale are less than that...then you should be able to get the sets at a portion on said book price.

So if a 1975 Topps set is up for auction and is NM or better...it should sell for $400-$500.....if it's EX+/NM...maybe even in the $300-$350 price range.

So again, like the 86 Fleers....you have to decide what your happy collecting!!
If it's a nice raw set of 86's for $500-$700 (less if you're patient and shop around).....or if you want to go the super high end or graded route. Or is a nice raw '75 set in the $350-$400 range good enough....versus getting into super high end raw and graded cards also?

It's buyer's choice...different strokes for different folks

basestealer

I think the '75 set was over-valued to begin with, especially compared with the other mid 70's sets. Collectors wondered why the '75 set was booking for $1000 (it did book that high back in the day), while the '74 and '76 were hovering around $300. Either the '74 and '76 had to come up in price a bit, or the '75 had to fall. There is nothing scarce about 1975 Topps versus the other 70's issues. It had (at the time) 2 key rookies, but Yount and Brett are fading fast--they are at best mediocre HOFers. They simply don't justify the '75 set booking 3 times the previous year, even with the good set design thrown in the mix. And I realize many of you are old enough to remember some of the great games Brett played in that made him a household name. Just like YAZ and Fisk and Puckett and even Kirk Gibson... but younger collectors remember only one thing--the stats. And Brett and Yount's stats, besides reaching the 3000 hit club, aren't all that impressive. Ripken, Boggs, and Gwynn hit that milestone--and history isn't going to be so kind to Ripken or Boggs stats either.

NickM

NM-Mt or better Yount and Boggs rookies, as well as similar quality copies of some other cards (Ryan, Aaron, Rose, Carter, etc.) are normally graded now, rather than being sold raw, even as part of sets. Most of the set buyers realize that most of the high-end sets now being offered (especially from dealers) will have a PSA 7 or less quality card of each of the high-dollar cards if it's a raw card, and have adjusted their buy prices accordingly.

Nick

grote15

The glut of unopened 75 product has also affected card values, IMO. You can easily find unopened wax, cellos and racks from 1975, but 1974 & 1976 product is scarce in comparison. I wouldn't say that Brett is a "mediocre" HOFer. He achieved one of the highest voting percentages in HOF history and he is more deserving than many of the other inductees over the past 10-15 years.

helionaut

You think that's bad, a PSA 8.08 complete set sold last night for $5400. About 4 years ago, a similar set sold for $10K, and a few months later another sold for $7500. But like others have said, demand has dropped to a point where supply has met and overtaken it, both raw and graded.

originalisbest

I would agree, kindasux if you paid big bucks for one. But, as an enthusiastic buyer of them now after putting off building a set of them for years, it's fine by me! Depends on which side of the equation you're coming from.

As time goes on, I believe it will remain a popular set - great colors, graphics and entertaining backs. It says "70's" to me the most, followed by '72s, and then '71s. Had Topps come out with an army green/orange/brown set of cards, that'd be more "70s" than any, but the '75 is as close to that as we've got.

RoarIn84

i dunno......i LOVE the 75s, big or small, but there are a lot of them. I think, in the past maybe decade, the line between regular and mini has blurred and people just see an obnoxious amount of the 75s available- be it raw, graded or even unopened. Kinda similar to the (potential bad example coming up) 90-91 upper deck/score hockey. at one time the french versions were going for 10x the english, then 5x then 1.5x, and now their equal in value (and garbage), even though the french is much more scarce. People see it as just another of the same card. I feel this is happening to the 1975 Topps set as well- there is little distinction between the regs vs minis, but rather both have just combined to make a larger print run of the same thing, driving the price down.

as for the 1986-87 fleer basketball, this is NOT that rare of a product and is due for a (further) drastic decrease. i don't know the print run, but let's say fleer printed 1500 cases..........

36 packs/box X 12 cards/pack=432 cards/box,

432 cards X 20 boxes= 8640 cards/case

8640 cards X 1500 cases= 12960000 cards

12960000 cards / 132 cards in the set= 98182 sets

this is not that rare......i'd even say that there may be 100-200 cases worth still unopened......

comparing a basic, lousy, regular Fleer series of cards to (a 35 years prior) 1952 topps is like comparing apples and bowling balls......

smallstocks

Noone mentions Gary Carter's rookie card?

originalisbest

I don't mind Carter's rookie - matter of fact I just got a PSA 8 of it for 25 bucks. Just a fun set to put together, I'm not thinking of it as anything more than that!

ColleSystem

I do wish the set had more action shots.

TheVon

Don't forget about Rice, Lynn and Hernadez rookies in this set!

I believe that a high grade mini set is still a good value/investment. There are far fewer cards that have been graded 8 or higher. According to the population report, there has been about 22,000 minis graded 8 or better - almost 60,000 less than the regular issue. I've heard that there is still a lot of unopened material, but if that 75 mini rip that recently took place on this board proved anything, it's that this set is a bear to complete in 8 or 9 and I'd estimate that more than half the cards in the mini set have never had an example graded 10.