Sc #549 value jump

edueku

Wow, the new SMQ value for #549 MNH jumped from $445 to $810! Incredible! Seems alot of stuff that SHOULD have gone up significantly though, did not.

MSherman

Keep in mind that the SMQ is deliberately conservative. Bill mentions that in almost every issue.

We have to be careful not to react to every auction sale or price realization - as you could be whipsawed around like crazy. While in grades of 95 and 98 the SMQ is probably still under the market, the other grades are quite close.

edueku

Mike I think most of the SMQ prices are "close" I just still think some of the used stuff is still really undervalued(I know blah blah blah) , but if that's the market , then that's the market,I know it doesn't really follow logic at all times. Any reason why the #549 jumped so much? I'm not complaining, I have the only MNH 98 according to the pop report. I know it has never sold, because I have never sold it and I submitted it to PSE raw. How is the SMQ value calculated on a stamp like that?

edueku

Hey Mike, Hope I didn't offend you. When I said "blah blah blah" in the above post, I was speaking of myself and all my ideas why used graded should be worth more. I can go on and on about it. I'm a big PSE supporter, and defend grading(and PSE) frequently online and elsewhere. : )

edueku

Anyone else have an opinion about the price nearly doubling on the 549 in the new SMQ?

fry46

Edueku, I do not have any old copies of SMQ. Was there a similar jump in #548 or #550?

If not, why would there be such a big jump with 549, while there is not a jump in 548?

I realize that 550 might be different, since the number printed for 550 is so much smaller.

edueku

mnhOG Previous SMQ New SMQ Increase

548 98 $390 $540 $150
549 98 $445 $810 $365
550 98 $1,650 $2,050 $400

They all went up in value but the 548 at nearly double. I think the amount printed is reflected more in the overall relative values within the set. For example ONE of the reasons any 550 is worth more than a 549 of the same grade is because of the amount printed. Most higher denominations are/were printed in lower quantities but that doesn't have much relation to why this one stamp increased by so much compared to the other two.

edueku

Hope the part in the post above comparing the prices is understandable. I had the values in columns under the top headings"MnhOG"..."Previous SMQ"..."New SMQ"..."Increase" but when I posted, it crammed everything together. Hope that makes since, the 550 almost had the same increase as the #549.

edueku

I meant ,"I hope that makes SENSE", not "since" in the above post. : )

fry46

<< <i>mnhOG Previous SMQ New SMQ Increase

548 98 $390 $540 $150
549 98 $445 $810 $365
550 98 $1,650 $2,050 $400

They all went up in value but the 548 at nearly double. I think the amount printed is reflected more in the overall relative values within the set. For example ONE of the reasons any 550 is worth more than a 549 of the same grade is because of the amount printed. Most higher denominations are/were printed in lower quantities but that doesn't have much relation to why this one stamp increased by so much compared to the other two. >>





That is strange, but I do not think that the dollar amounts are the key. 549 went up by more than 80%, while 548 went up less than 40%. The 550 went up nearly 25%, but there is such a disparity in value that I am not sure that it there is a direct comparison.

In addition, 549 was 15% more valuable than 548. Now that has increased to a 50% value difference.

Those percentages really are quite dramatic.

As a total novice and non-expert, I would guess that quarterly increases in the SMQ are based on a very small sample of public sales or auctions. Again, as a guess, perhaps only a handful of sales of that stamp (less than 5 or 10 ????) reflected this upward movement. Perhaps there were a couple of really nice 98s and they reflected a higher price. Then at the next auction, the buyer saw the increase and matched it. That set a price that stuck.

I think that the SMQ and grading are a wonderful thing. My only question is whether the market is so thin that it is really hard to get accurate values. I realize that Mike and Bill do their best not to react to price swings, but buyers who follow auctions might not be so careful, so a major upward price trend may appear even if not necessary rational.

Of course, I do not have a better idea, so I guess that Mike and company are doing the best that they can.

edueku

Actually NO 549's graded 98 have sold because the one I have is the only one graded that high. I think the SMQ's prices are pretty close but I was just curious about this one stamp since I happen to have the only highest 98 grade(which I didn't buy from anyone I submitted the stamp raw to PSE for a cert) So there were no "sales" of any examples to base any price on.

fry46

Well, that is certainly interesting.

In that case, I do not even have a guess.

Are there other stamps with comparable "popularity", rarity, etc. Do you know what happened to them?

It sure does not seem logical.