Early line from Vegas for the Super Bowl?

Michigan · January 21, 2007 10:34PM

I'm going to assume the Colts are favored but by how much?

ziggy29 · January 21, 2007 10:38PM

<< I'm going to assume the Colts are favored but by how much? >>

The early line is Indy by 7, which I think is too high. I would have thought 4.5 would have been about right.

perkdog · January 22, 2007 6:59AM

Yea, 7 points does seem a bit high. Can the Colts score against that D? Can Grossman limit his mistakes?

Looks like an under bet IMO, one of the few Super Bowls that might be low scoring.

Petescorner · January 22, 2007 7:27AM

I believe the O/U is around 49 right now.

perkdog · January 22, 2007 7:47AM

49? I could see a 20-13 type score, but then again, I thought the Saints were going to beat Da Bears...

DirtyHarry · January 22, 2007 9:24AM

Colts by 7 is an overstatement. Take the Bears if this line holds.

iamthegreatcornholio · January 22, 2007 9:42AM

I like under 49; I too see a low-scoring game.

There's a ton of money on the Bears ML; +220 is usually for a +6 dog not +7. Although I think it's a result of many people hedging Colts Futures. I know of a guy that has 8.5K on the Colts to win the SB. The bet was made in week 16 (at the odds: 8.5K to win 100K

)

Cubby · January 25, 2007 2:53PM

With the spread around "7", it looks like a good opportunty to play
the middle.

Boopotts · January 26, 2007 2:08PM

<< I like under 49; I too see a low-scoring game.

There's a ton of money on the Bears ML; +220 is usually for a +6 dog not +7. Although I think it's a result of many people hedging Colts Futures. I know of a guy that has 8.5K on the Colts to win the SB. The bet was made in week 16 (at the odds: 8.5K to win 100K

) >>

Another thing: Squares tend to like betting the point spread when they like the fave, and the ML when they like the dog. So for the Super Bowl-- aka 'square Sunday'-- the ML on the dog is usually slightly deflated.

Boopotts · January 26, 2007 2:09PM

<< With the spread around "7", it looks like a good opportunty to play
the middle. >>

Unless you're betting at -105 you need the -6.5 AND the +7.5 for a middle on the seven to be profitable, assuming the 7 hits about 5% of the time.

Cubby · January 26, 2007 3:01PM

Boo - You are correct. When I was in Vegas, - 105 was nowhere to be found.
All the books were at - 110. But are you sure about the 5%?? Seems to me
it would hit at a higher %?

perkdog · January 26, 2007 11:46PM

My buddy is the biggest sucker for trying to hit the middle on point spreads, I cant tell you how much he has lost doing this.

Boopotts · January 27, 2007 10:34AM

<< Boo - You are correct. When I was in Vegas, - 105 was nowhere to be found.
All the books were at - 110. But are you sure about the 5%?? Seems to me
it would hit at a higher %? >>

Historically a 7 point fave has won by exactly 7 points about 5% of the time. I don't have the exact numbers handy, but the breakdown roughly goes like this:

1 pt- 2%
2 pts. -2%
3 pts.- 10%
4 pts- 3%
5 pts- 2%
6 pts- 3%
7 pts- 5%

Or something like that. A few may be off by a % pt, but I know the 3 is about 10% and the 7 is about 5%. The biggest key number for totals is 37, which lands about 5%.

Boopotts · January 27, 2007 10:35AM

<< My buddy is the biggest sucker for trying to hit the middle on point spreads, I cant tell you how much he has lost doing this. >>

Then he doesn't know what he's doing. Hitting middles is simply a mathematical exercise if your numbers are correct. If your numbers AREN'T correct then you're just another dart thrower.

stown · January 27, 2007 11:01AM

<< Colts by 7 is an overstatement. Take the Bears if this line holds. >>

<< I like under 49; I too see a low-scoring game. >>

with both of you

stevek · January 27, 2007 1:43PM

<< 

<< Boo - You are correct. When I was in Vegas, - 105 was nowhere to be found.
All the books were at - 110. But are you sure about the 5%?? Seems to me
it would hit at a higher %? >>

Historically a 7 point fave has won by exactly 7 points about 5% of the time. I don't have the exact numbers handy, but the breakdown roughly goes like this:

1 pt- 2%
2 pts. -2%
3 pts.- 10%
4 pts- 3%
5 pts- 2%
6 pts- 3%
7 pts- 5%

Or something like that. A few may be off by a % pt, but I know the 3 is about 10% and the 7 is about 5%. The biggest key number for totals is 37, which lands about 5%. >>

Interesting. I can see the math if I'm doing it correctly. Taking both sides trying to middle at 7, according to it "landing" about 5% of the time, you're gonna lose 95 out of 100 bets. So betting $100 on each team losing $10 each time to the juice, you're losing $950 total. But winning the 5 bets of $200 each winning bet, you're winning $1,000 total, for a net profit of $50.

I can see a lot of possible "catches" to this, and even if it did work, you're putting a lot of money and time into it for not very much of a profit percentage wise, and gamblers by nature generally don't have the discipline and will likely get impatient with a slow working system like this, and make other types of sports bets which would throw the edge right back to the bookies.

But it is an interesting scenario. I would like to see a link to this study which has these numbers posted if you can recall the link.

Steve

Cubby · January 28, 2007 9:09AM

"Then he doesn't know what he's doing." OR Perk just wants to
contradict what I said.

fsjeter · January 29, 2007 3:42AM

<< Boo - You are correct. When I was in Vegas, - 105 was nowhere to be found.
All the books were at - 110. But are you sure about the 5%?? Seems to me
it would hit at a higher %?

Historically a 7 point fave has won by exactly 7 points about 5% of the time. I don't have the exact numbers handy, but the breakdown roughly goes like this:

1 pt- 2%
2 pts. -2%
3 pts.- 10%
4 pts- 3%
5 pts- 2%
6 pts- 3%
7 pts- 5%

Or something like that. A few may be off by a % pt, but I know the 3 is about 10% and the 7 is about 5%. The biggest key number for totals is 37, which lands about 5%.

Interesting. I can see the math if I'm doing it correctly. Taking both sides trying to middle at 7, according to it "landing" about 5% of the time, you're gonna lose 95 out of 100 bets. So betting $100 on each team losing $10 each time to the juice, you're losing $950 total. But winning the 5 bets of $200 each winning bet, you're winning $1,000 total, for a net profit of $50.

I can see a lot of possible "catches" to this, and even if it did work, you're putting a lot of money and time into it for not very much of a profit percentage wise, and gamblers by nature generally don't have the discipline and will likely get impatient with a slow working system like this, and make other types of sports bets which would throw the edge right back to the bookies.

But it is an interesting scenario. I would like to see a link to this study which has these numbers posted if you can recall the link.

Steve >>

<<Taking both sides trying to middle at 7, according to it "landing" about 5% of the time, you're gonna lose 95 out of 100 bets.>>

Is it me or does this seem skewed a little? The chart above accounts for 27% of the outcomes (2+2+10+3+2+3+5). In my math, 22% of the bets on favorites are losers, 5% of the bets push, and 73% of the bets on favorites are winners. In other words, 73% of the time the favorite covers, 22% of the time they don't and 5% of the time it is a push. The problem with the quoted calculation is the favorite doesn't have to win by exactly 7 points, they have to win by at least 7 points. Also, to get -105 in Las Vegas, you're going to have to wait until probably Wednesday of this week. The Coast Casino's (Barbary Coast across from Caesar's Palace) almost always offers up -105. The others you usually have to buy the -105 as a teaser. I have the most recent prop sheet from Station's Casino if anyone is interested in what the side bets look like. The best is the Las Vegas Hilton and it won't come out until Wednesday or Thursday.

Scott

fsjeter · January 29, 2007 3:43AM

Also, as of yesterday, the line was down to 6.5.

Scott

stown · January 29, 2007 4:15AM

<< Also, as of yesterday, the line was down to 6.5.

Scott >>

I took action yesterday with CHI buying 1/2 straight up (+7.5) and a teaser with the UNDER and CHI, also buying 1/2 (55.5 / 13.5)

stevek · January 29, 2007 5:02AM

<< 

<< Boo - You are correct. When I was in Vegas, - 105 was nowhere to be found.
All the books were at - 110. But are you sure about the 5%?? Seems to me
it would hit at a higher %?

Historically a 7 point fave has won by exactly 7 points about 5% of the time. I don't have the exact numbers handy, but the breakdown roughly goes like this:

1 pt- 2%
2 pts. -2%
3 pts.- 10%
4 pts- 3%
5 pts- 2%
6 pts- 3%
7 pts- 5%

Or something like that. A few may be off by a % pt, but I know the 3 is about 10% and the 7 is about 5%. The biggest key number for totals is 37, which lands about 5%.

Interesting. I can see the math if I'm doing it correctly. Taking both sides trying to middle at 7, according to it "landing" about 5% of the time, you're gonna lose 95 out of 100 bets. So betting $100 on each team losing $10 each time to the juice, you're losing $950 total. But winning the 5 bets of $200 each winning bet, you're winning $1,000 total, for a net profit of $50.

I can see a lot of possible "catches" to this, and even if it did work, you're putting a lot of money and time into it for not very much of a profit percentage wise, and gamblers by nature generally don't have the discipline and will likely get impatient with a slow working system like this, and make other types of sports bets which would throw the edge right back to the bookies.

But it is an interesting scenario. I would like to see a link to this study which has these numbers posted if you can recall the link.

Steve >>

<<Taking both sides trying to middle at 7, according to it "landing" about 5% of the time, you're gonna lose 95 out of 100 bets.>>

Is it me or does this seem skewed a little? The chart above accounts for 27% of the outcomes (2+2+10+3+2+3+5). In my math, 22% of the bets on favorites are losers, 5% of the bets push, and 73% of the bets on favorites are winners. In other words, 73% of the time the favorite covers, 22% of the time they don't and 5% of the time it is a push. The problem with the quoted calculation is the favorite doesn't have to win by exactly 7 points, they have to win by at least 7 points. Also, to get -105 in Las Vegas, you're going to have to wait until probably Wednesday of this week. The Coast Casino's (Barbary Coast across from Caesar's Palace) almost always offers up -105. The others you usually have to buy the -105 as a teaser. I have the most recent prop sheet from Station's Casino if anyone is interested in what the side bets look like. The best is the Las Vegas Hilton and it won't come out until Wednesday or Thursday.

Scott >>

That's one reason I stated I'd like to see a link to a website which has these precise numbers because even Boo stated that he wasn't certain of the "exact numbers."

Frankly, I don't expect bookies to be "giving away" money like this any time soon. And I understand the supposition of basically using one bookies line against another bookies line...it is interesting...but this just seems way to easy not to have been noticed by others before and widely publicized if it worked.

Bottom line - bookies and gambling houses have the perception of being generous - actually, they toss around quarters like they were manhole covers. They aren't about to give gambling suckers an even break, or allow anyone through skill to make any money off of them.

Anyone can spin anything any which way they want, but you're not going to beat a bookie in the long-run. Despite the garbage stated in some "how to win at gambling" books of some gamblers beating the books, none of this information was ever verified by a reputable auditing company - frankly it's all BS.

Ken Uston beating the blackjack tables?- it was all BS - in my opinion he was a con artist and a very good one at that. Those famous handicappers like "Jimmy the Greek" beating the books? BS. If the Greek was so good why did he have to work as a commentator on a network if he was getting so rich off of sports betting? - in my view he was a fraud.

-

stown · January 30, 2007 10:25AM

I can't find the gambling thread but it's still a tad on topic.

From : Sportsbook.com <Support@sportsbook.com>
Sent : Tuesday, January 30, 2007 8:05 PM
To :
Subject : Yes, we accept credit cards for the Big Game

| | | Inbox

Hi ,

After a long and aggressive NFL season, Super Bowl XLI action is finally just around the corner. Do you know who you’re going to bet on?

Gear up for Sunday’s action using your Visa or MasterCard. It’s the fast and easy method you can rely on.

Your username is x and your account balance as of this Tuesday is $XXX.00. Use the money and these helpful facts to bet on the big game:

During the postseason, the Colts' defense gave up only 73.3 rushing yards per game while the Bears' defense gave up 261.4 passing yards per game over the last 8 games. No wonder the Colts are bringing in 46% of the money and the Bears 54%.

Will the coin toss be heads or tails? Guess it and bet it. We have hundreds of Super Bowl proposition bets, so make sure to check them out.

No more anticipating. It’s time to place your favorite picks at the only place that has it all…Sportsbook.com.

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The Sportsbook.com Team

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stevek · January 30, 2007 12:34PM

<< I can't find the gambling thread but it's still a tad on topic.

From : Sportsbook.com <Support@sportsbook.com>
Sent : Tuesday, January 30, 2007 8:05 PM
To :
Subject : Yes, we accept credit cards for the Big Game

| | | Inbox

Hi ,

After a long and aggressive NFL season, Super Bowl XLI action is finally just around the corner. Do you know who you’re going to bet on?

Gear up for Sunday’s action using your Visa or MasterCard. It’s the fast and easy method you can rely on.

Your username is x and your account balance as of this Tuesday is $XXX.00. Use the money and these helpful facts to bet on the big game:

During the postseason, the Colts' defense gave up only 73.3 rushing yards per game while the Bears' defense gave up 261.4 passing yards per game over the last 8 games. No wonder the Colts are bringing in 46% of the money and the Bears 54%.

Will the coin toss be heads or tails? Guess it and bet it. We have hundreds of Super Bowl proposition bets, so make sure to check them out.

No more anticipating. It’s time to place your favorite picks at the only place that has it all…Sportsbook.com.

Regards,

The Sportsbook.com Team

___________________________________________________________

This email was sent to you by Sportsbook.com. To ensure delivery to your inbox (not bulk or junk folders), be sure you add “support@sportsbook.com” to your address book.

*UNSUBSCRIBE: We respect your privacy; you have received this email because you joined sportsbook.com or participated in one of our free contests.
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They could state it more eloquently with "Come all ye suckers, one and all"

Early line from Vegas for the Super Bowl?

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