eBay vs. SMR: a non-random sample of '50s-'70s Topps HOFers

paleocards

I own 212 PSA-graded Topps HOFers from the 1950s-1970s. Most are in PSA 7 and 8 slabs. I track their market values via successfully completed auctions on eBay. As of today, my collection's market value is 86.2% of published SMR prices. I thought the Board may be interested in a listing of the highest performing cards that I track.

This list is structured as follows:
Year -- Player -- Card # -- PSA Grade -- SMR -- Avg. eBay Price -- eBay/SMR % -- Number of tracked auctions, since when

1957 -- Whitey Ford -- #25 -- PSA 8 -- $325 -- $587.61 -- 180.8% -- 5 auctions since 3/1/2006
1966 -- Tony Perez -- #72 -- PSA 8 -- $60 -- $100.06 -- 166.8% -- 4 auctions since 2/7/2006 (highest graded example, no 9s or 10s)
1963 -- NL HR LL -- #3 -- PSA 8 -- $85 -- $113.52 -- 133.5% -- 10 auctions since 10/12/2005
1968 -- NL RBI LL -- #3 -- PSA 8 -- $65 -- $81.01 -- 124.6% -- 8 auctions since 8/13/2006
1959 -- Ernie Banks AS -- #559 -- PSA 8 -- $125 -- $154.39 -- 123.5% -- 14 auctions since 9/18/2005
1959 -- Sandy Koufax -- #163 -- PSA 7 -- $160 -- $181.74 -- 113.6% -- 29 auctions since 5/22/2005
1969 -- Willie Mays -- #190 -- PSA 8 -- $180 -- $202.01 -- 112.2% -- 48 auctions since 6/13/2005
1968 -- Al Kaline -- #240 -- PSA 8 -- $60 -- $66.34 -- 110.6% -- 15 auctions since 6/11/2006
1959 -- Mickey Mantle AS -- #564 -- PSA 7 -- $250 -- $275.90 -- 110.4% -- 21 auctions since 10/16/2005
1968 -- Roberto Clemente AS -- #374 -- PSA 8 -- $75 -- $81.86 -- 109.2% -- 18 auctions since 10/21/2005
1957 -- Hank Aaron -- #20 -- PSA 7 -- $250 -- $271.05 -- 108.4% -- 43 auctions since 8/7/2005
1966 -- Willie Mays -- #1 -- PSA 7 -- $225 -- $243.81 -- 108.4% -- 22 auctions since 8/25/2005
1966 -- Mickey Mantle -- #50 -- PSA 8 -- $525 -- $563.82 -- 107.4% -- 44 auctions since 8/29/2005

I'd be happy to provide data for anyone that's interested in checking HOFer values on eBay, understanding, of course, that I only have info on the cards I own. If anyone's interested, I would also be happy to mine my data for other trends. For example, how do Hank Aaron PSA 8s perform vs. PSA 7s?

QUITCRAB

Have you tracked the 64 topps stand up market?

SidePocket

paleo, that is awesome data. If it's not too much work I'd love to see it for all your cards, since I collect pretty much the same thing - HOFrs from 50's and 60's. It's great data to have when I'm shopping on eBay - I'm looking at 3 of your cards right now, and your info gives me a good idea of what to expect to pay.

storm888

Excellent job !

Blackborder

1915 Cracker Jack cards routinely sell for 150-250% of SMR, in low grades anyway. SMR doesn't seem to be a very accurate market guide in my opinion.

paleocards

Quitcrab: All I have is #1 Aaron in PSA 7 that cost me $124 on eBay. The only other Aaron I've tracked closed at $99, but I think that's an aberration (should go higher). Right now there are PSA 7s running of Aaron, Koufax & Clemente.

SidePocket: If there are any specific cards you want me to check, just ask...

Storm: Thanks!

Blackborder: For 1915 Cracker Jacks, I'm sure you're right but SMR seems to be pretty accurate for PSA 7 & 8 Topps HOFers from the '50s and '60s.

SidePocket

Paleo, how about these? And thanks!

56 Topps in PSA 7
Jackie Robinson
Ted Williams
Clemente

59 Topps PSA 7
Maris
Bob Gibson

59 Topps PSA 8
Berra
Kaline

paleocards

SidePocket:

On your list, I only have the '56 Williams in PSA 7:

avg. eBay sale: $427.38 (10 auctions since 11/3/2006; just got this card...)
SMR: $450
eBay/SMR: 95%
avg. # of bidders per completed auction: 14.0
min. price winning auction: $306.11
max. price winning auction: $565.00

I also have the Gibson RC in PSA 8 if you want those data.

mealeworm

PALEO-
I only need 60,63,64,66,69 Aarons to complete my basic set, and I decided only to get those in 8's. I havent added a card in 6mthsdue to prices. The 69 can be had rather cheap but the others are all above SMR for average 8's. The 7's are undervalued IMHO

Dave

Stone193

Paleo

Very nice work! Thanx for taking the time to present the data.

I did some basic math and I think I came up with approximately 123% over the SMR for all of your cards.

And if you factor out the first two cards, it's way closer.

So - obviously the SMR is lower - but not by tons.

But, you say that overall, you're cards are running below SMR - which is what I see when I go to buy cards for my set. The only cards that may go at or above SMR are low pops and extremely well centered copies.
So far, emphasis on centering.

Again thanx
mike

paleocards

That's right, Stone, I only listed my top-performing cards in my original post, but the overall average for the 212 cards I track is 86.2% of SMR. And you're right again -- by far the cards that sell the best are the well-centered ones within their grades. If the seller provides a large, clear, high-res scan of the card that usually helps the final hammer price too.

Stone193

We have some truly fastidious collectors here - they want the better grades with great centering.

To be honest - I've learned to love a 60/40 card at 60% SMR.

mike