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An important word from Poorguy
tradedollarnut
Posts: 20,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
Saw this in his market report and just had to bring it to everyone's attention:
As more and more of them get graded and regraded there is only one place to go but up. Nobody is going to crack out a coin in an MS66 holder when it is obviously an MS65 or even lower. However, you can bet your last bronze plated button that someone, eventually, will crackout and eventually upgrade that PQ MS64 until it resides in a holder at a grade nobody with an average sized set of cohones or half a brain cell would even consider cracking out. It is essentially the Peter Principle applied to coins and grading. Coins are being upgraded to the point where nobody wants to pony up the dough at the level they are graded at so they trade at lower levels both hurting the values of properly graded coins and creating a false sense of market weakening because of lower prices realized. On the other end of the spectrum, premium examples are bringing staggering prices with no printed value guide even coming close to what they are bringing while overgraded lack-luster and stripped out examples are selling for much lower than listed price levels.
As more and more of them get graded and regraded there is only one place to go but up. Nobody is going to crack out a coin in an MS66 holder when it is obviously an MS65 or even lower. However, you can bet your last bronze plated button that someone, eventually, will crackout and eventually upgrade that PQ MS64 until it resides in a holder at a grade nobody with an average sized set of cohones or half a brain cell would even consider cracking out. It is essentially the Peter Principle applied to coins and grading. Coins are being upgraded to the point where nobody wants to pony up the dough at the level they are graded at so they trade at lower levels both hurting the values of properly graded coins and creating a false sense of market weakening because of lower prices realized. On the other end of the spectrum, premium examples are bringing staggering prices with no printed value guide even coming close to what they are bringing while overgraded lack-luster and stripped out examples are selling for much lower than listed price levels.
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Yes. The upgrade game has slowly but surely poluted the certified coin population. It can only get worse. As Brandon stated, once a coin is maxed out, it is there to stay. We call them "coffins" instead of slabs at that point. Trying to find a solidly graded example of a certain coin requires wading through a sea of schlop.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
If so, what has changed?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Fresh, ungraded meat from the US Mint smells better all the time.
I guess it has failed then. for that anyway. However I would still like to look thru a sea of schlop in plastic then a sea of schlop some dealer says is ms 65+++++++++++++++++++++ at least the plastic coins have at the least been looked at with some subjectivity.
?
Steve
Heard that a few times in the last year
<< <i>Is this any more true today than it has been for the past 20 years?
If so, what has changed? >>
Nothing has changed. However, it is only logical that the problem can only get worse. It is like pond scum that keeps accumulating.
siliconvalleycoins.com
You do have a valid point, tho!
A pcgs coin could be a 64 65 or a 66
That same coin a dealer claims is a 64 65 ot a 66
Is in most cases at best a 63, 58 or some cleaned POS.
I guess if you are buying 10k coins that could be a problem, but for the lil guy it sure helps.
One can always choose between the pcgs 64, 65 or 66
Steve
<< <i>Yes. The upgrade game has slowly but surely poluted the certified coin population. It can only get worse. As Brandon stated, once a coin is maxed out, it is there to stay. We call them "coffins" instead of slabs at that point. >>
Nah, eventually, the next generations of graders will just have these new benchmark coins, and then the upgrade game will start again. Which I agree, is the same as getting worse.
Ed. S.
(EJS)
Are you going to pony up $18000 for a typical "1989" MS65 bust half? Or does $5500 for a schlocky 65 sound better to the newbies for an MS65?
roadrunner
What is almost as important is that the "nice coin" premium at auction is as high as it has ever been. If that flows back to a more normal situation, people paying the big premiums for a nice coin for the grade may be caught holding a bag of dealer hype about quality, quality, quality. This is especially true of the coins that have to be sold quickly (Yes, Virginia, there are times when folks are forced to sell, such as divorce, medical bills, change of job, loss of job, paying for a trip to Australia
Yes, quality, but know the market for that coin, and whether nice examples are common as dirt, or rare as hen's teeth. If it is the former, shop around because the quality coin is often available for a close to normal price. If it is the later, well, that is a different ball game.
<< <i>Is this any more true today than it has been for the past 20 years?
If so, what has changed? >>
What has changed, especially in the past 10 years, is that collectors are relying more and more on TPG's to tell them what grade a coin is. The "conventional wisdom" that X brand of slab with a certain color insert is either better or worse than the stated grade, that one TPG is always overgraded, etc. can lead the inexperienced to be either too trusting or too cautious of coins.
Obscurum per obscurius
<< <i>Actually, I pointed it out because I agree with it. After viewing auction lots at FUN, I am very concerned about this subject.
You do have a valid point, tho!
I agree with both.
I was more than dismayed back in 2004 when I attempted to "calibrate" my eye to the slab grades for the PCGS grading contest......greenies, rattlers, light blue, other blue, new, old; you name it, they standard deviations were all over the map. And, forget about looking at NGC or other TPG slabs. No wonder newbies become paralyzed and crippled. They've never had a classical education in the pure grading of gem RAW coins.
And please don't get me started on the conserved "black and white headlight" nickel proofs which I saw back then (thanks NCS). Most people today jump the bandwagon and go nuts or turn thumbs down on IHC proofs which "might" be "AT blue". It's because they've never seen real Prosky toners back in the 50s, 60s, or 70s.
<< <i>On the other end of the spectrum, premium examples are bringing staggering prices with no printed value guide even coming close to what they are bringing while overgraded lack-luster and stripped out examples are selling for much lower than listed price levels. >>
Some know of the coins I look for and buy, other will have to take it for what it's worth.
I took 4 exceptional coins to the FUN Show all PCGS AU58, (circulated) but still amazing coins for what they were/are.
2 Draped Bust Halves, and 2 Capped Bust Halves. (1806-1808)
I attempted to sell these 4 coins as a group to dealers who specialize in early halves.
All the dealers agreed that these 4 coins were very original and exceptional examples, BUT
the majority (not all) of the dealers did the following:
Look at the current greysheet (quoted a price)
Jumped online to analize the latest auction prices (quoted a price)
Went on the dealer network to see who was paying what for what (quoted a price)
Point is that no dealer would look at the coin for what it was, and offer "a premium" for what was in front of them.
New collectors LOVE widgets.
Practice makes perfect & nobody is perfect. So, practice being nobody and be perfect !
I'm not sure I buy that. Given the scarcity of older slabs on the market, most of the scum must be of relatively recent vintage.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>And this ones coffined at a 7 for xxx below 7 bid.
Heard that a few times in the last year >>
We Google and Youtube things today, and now we Coffin coins.
Nouns are starting to rule the action world.
When will SDGS (Super Dooper Grading Service) start, to come out grading 2 points tighter and become the slab of choice, and start this process all over?
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
<< <i>Saw this in his market report and just had to bring it to everyone's attention:
As more and more of them get graded and regraded there is only one place to go but up. Nobody is going to crack out a coin in an MS66 holder when it is obviously an MS65 or even lower. However, you can bet your last bronze plated button that someone, eventually, will crackout and eventually upgrade that PQ MS64 until it resides in a holder at a grade nobody with an average sized set of cohones or half a brain cell would even consider cracking out. It is essentially the Peter Principle applied to coins and grading. Coins are being upgraded to the point where nobody wants to pony up the dough at the level they are graded at so they trade at lower levels both hurting the values of properly graded coins and creating a false sense of market weakening because of lower prices realized. On the other end of the spectrum, premium examples are bringing staggering prices with no printed value guide even coming close to what they are bringing while overgraded lack-luster and stripped out examples are selling for much lower than listed price levels. >>
So its really back to grading the coin and not the slab, where its been all along.
I say DON'T crackout, DON't resubmit, keep the coin in whatever slab its in but CHARGE THE RIGHT PRICE!
If its in a 64 holder and its a PQ 65, charge a PQ 65 price for it.
That will get everyone antsy.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Is this any more true today than it has been for the past 20 years?
If so, what has changed? >>
Now there's a lot more of 'em (over-graded coins)
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain
Newmismatist
roadrunner
Don't kid yourself, PCGS pretty much does two things now, grades moderns and that fresh from the mint stuff for all the speculators, and classic crackouts, that's it. My guess would be that for every ten pre 1900 coins now submitted to PCGS, at least 7-8 have been graded by either PCGS or NGC at least once before, and for many coins it has been several times or more. And yes, every coin that has even a remote shot at the next grade up will eventually be bumped and add to the growing truckloads of low end swill on the market circulating now.
About the only shot a serious collector now has of finding REAL premium and original certified stuff is pretty much when another collector sells or auctions off his collection purchased from the mid / late 80's era that hasn't been through the rounds of all the dealers hands and dipped out and resubmitted over and over, or when the the infrequent original unmessed with collection hits the market via auction or dealer purchase.
This crackout and upgrade craze started en masse probably sometime as early as 1988-1990 and has gotten worse and worse each year IMO, and this holds true for just the average joe dealers with a pair of pliers and a jar of Jeweluster.......I'm not even getting into what all the deceitful coin docs out there have done to so many coins in an attempt at upgrades, it's sickeneing.
As demonstrated over and over by auction prices realized, I believe 3rd party slabs are quickly becoming far less useful for any serious collector and now serve only to 'protect' the floor value of all the low end, dipped out, doctored up, maxxed out coins out there. It has been seen that the really nice original premium stuff will go for WAY over the grade on the holder, and it's also been shown time and time again that plenty of 'bad' coins find their way into premium 3rd party holders, especially so for NGC from what I've seen. Others here have said the grade on the holder should be considered as a starting point and go from there, however I think even that is a stretch these days, and unless you're playing the Registry game or need to liquidate, the holders serve little purpose anymore in my view.
+1
A very accurate, albeit cynical, perspective. I have trouble disagreeing with any of it. Don't forget the value of the holder for authentication and coin protection.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
Practice makes perfect & nobody is perfect. So, practice being nobody and be perfect !
Practice makes perfect & nobody is perfect. So, practice being nobody and be perfect !
<< <i>... and it's also been shown time and time again that plenty of 'bad' coins find their way into premium 3rd party holders, especially so for NGC from what I've seen... >>
You just keep drinking that kool-aid. I've seen just as much cr#p in PCGS holders as in NGC holders, and I'm talking about seriously metal moved type stuff.
U.S. Type Set
When will SDGS (Super Dooper Grading Service) start, to come out grading 2 points tighter and become the slab of choice, and start this process all over?
I believe this service has existed for years. It's just that no-one will ever slab it. There's no money in it.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
I have left many series prematurely because I have been dismayed at the prevelent "moving standard", which is in actuality, no standard at all. The "revaluation" or "devaluation" of grades continue to point out that coins that used to be, for example, 65s or 66s are now 67s or 68s, and if they are "high end" within the "new" standard for their grade, or if they have "nice tone" they can upgrade additionally (through the catch-all "market grading") and, again as just an example, get a "star" ATS, then, if "lucky" cross back and receive yet another bonus point.
I feel that this practice, or behavior, has really hurt the hobby, and hurt it to such a point that the TPGs are making a mockery of their own services and abilities, and their trust. In essence, they are creating their own eventual uselessness - they are "peter principling" themselves right out of the need for their services, except for perhaps a coin's authentication and physical protection.
It is a trend that should stop, but it should have stopped years ago, and really should have never begun in the first place. It is a shame, at least to me, that "standardized grading" is anything but that - the creation of standards by which future grades are based.
"Retraining" one's keen "grading eye" for the purposes of keeping current with the "new standards" is simply a ridiculous necessity, but nevertheless one which, it seems, we must periodically, or actually, continually do. This is wrong.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
edited for clarity.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
The coin sparkled with original lustre and was practically free of marks and hairlines. But after real close examination just a trace of rub could be detected. This is the type of coin I refer to as au63. Everybody oohed and aahed but no body pulled the trigger. Many brought friends and other dealers to look at it. These refrains were repeated ad nauseum: "It's really a great coin but I don't think it will upgrade". "After all it's only a 58". " Wow! , that's ms 60 money you're asking, how come? etc. etc.
I finally consigned it to auction where it realized a lot more than I was willing to sell it for.
The same goes for 64s that just missed 65 or 65s that just missed 66. etc. At any given show I will get dozens of requests to see certain coins to the exclusion of all others in my case. When I quote the price (which is usually greysheet ask or maybe a little more) they hand it back sometimes in anger and offer 10% back of bid.
This is not meant to be a "pity me" whine, as all these coins eventually sell to the astute buyers who will pay extra for quality (just like I did). In most cases it's other dealers who deal in quality, high end coins that end up buying and I'm certain selling them for an even higher price.
As Laura has pointed out so many times "there is no substitute for quality".
When most buyers finally realize they can't really buy quality, high end coins for Walmart prices then these coins will be the ones that will reside in the registry sets and the dreck that remains in holders that they somehow sneaked into will be selling for less and less.
This started out as just an agreement to a previous thread and wound up as a rant. That's enough. Dave W
The priceless ingredient in any coin transaction is the integrity of the dealer.
David J Weygant Rare Coins website: www.djwcoin.com