Will we ever see another hitter get 4000 hits?

onlyanumber

Okay, this isn't a love fest for Pete Rose thread. We've discussed numerous topics about pitchers getting 300 wins, hitters hitting .400. We've never really discussed the magical 4000 hit number. In your opinion, is there anyone playing today that can get 4000 hits in their career?

I personally felt Kirby Puckett would have done it if his career wasn't cut short. Now I'm looking at career stats and the names that jump out at me are Derek Jeter and Albert Pujols. Factoring in their ages and where they are now, could either of them actually do it? Anyone else out there with the potential?

Thoughts?

bulldog33

arod is on better pace then jeter right now.. 3k is the milestone though. 4k would be like beating 73 homers.

73? will that ever be beat even on juice or not?

Cubby

Maybe Miggy Cabrera

Skinpinch

Jeter is aging much better than Arod. I laid out some scenarios before, and it all depends on Jeter's old man desires of course...but it could get interesting.

Stingray

Ichiro maybe, if he would have started his career here earlier. Only someone who can consistently get 200 hits would even stand a chance of doing that.

kcballboy

<< <i>Ichiro maybe, if he would have started his career here earlier. Only someone who can consistently get 200 hits would even stand a chance of doing that. >>



Not necessarily. With the supplements and training regimens that are out there I think it is easier for one's body to hold up to give them a 20-25 year career. Combine that with the 18 year old kids using the same techinques and getting an earlier start with their careers and it is quite possible for someone to hit the bigs at 18/19 and retire at 44/45.

Granted it doesn't happen much but when you look at guys like Clemens, Maddux, Franco, Finley, Johnson and yes even Bonds, who are all servicable into their 40's, the chances are increased with the longer careers.

I guess the flip side would be the guys that juiced or used the supplements in such a way that it broke their bodies down sooner rather than later.

bri2327

<< <i>arod is on better pace then jeter right now >>




How do you figure that ?

In almost 100 less AB Jeter has nearly 100 more hits than Arod.

Couple that with Jeters hit production being steady ( 2 straight 200 hit seasons and 5 for his career, as opposed to 3 200 hit seasons for Arod and none in the last 5 years and I just dont see how you can make that statement.

Writer11

Not to get off track here, but raise your hand if you knew that Juan Pierre was averaging 200 hits a season for the past six years? He started his career a little late to have a legit shot at 3,000 or 4,000, but he has a lot of hits in recent years.

80sToyguy

I always though Gwynn had the best chance of catching Rose and I believe he probably could have continued playing for another 3-5 years hitting .280ish each year (as a semi-part time guy with 120ish hits per year). But I guess at that point guys start to think about their place in the game and the career batting average plays a big part in deciding to retire.
As far as Jeter and A-Rod, they just make too much money. I can't see guys today hanging around 5 years longer than they should to reach the milestone (as Rose did). By the time A-Rod is 40 he'll have made something like 500 million just on baseball salary, forget about endorsements. Just can't see a guy wanting to hang on anymore to "maybe" get there (remember, before the roid era guys used to essentially fall off a plank--think of Mike Schmidt between 87 and 88--just woke up one day and realized his bat speed was no more). If they eliminate roids (which I am still convinced even Clemens is on), the age of 40 will still be signifant as a major turning point in a player's career. You'd have to be awful close at that age to continue, and I just can't see it with a current major leaguer anyways.
Just my thoughts,
Jay

estang

Tony Gwynn needs to get himself into more presentable shape for the sake of his health & family. It was hard to see Kirby let himself go, and Tony is on his way... If he were in better shape when he played, he probably could have kept on going...

markj111

FWIW Jeter is a year older than Arod.

jmmiller777

Think about it. It would take 200 hits per season for 20 years on average. I just don't think so.

SeatedCoin

I can't see guys today hanging around 5 years longer than they should to reach the milestone (as Rose did). By the time A-Rod is 40 he'll have made something like 500 million just on baseball salary, forget about endorsements

I guess you don't know what Jeter is all about then. I can really see this guy pulling a Rickey Henderson and playing until he is 45 years old or so. He loves the game of baseball. A-Rod, pretty boy, on the other hand...I can see him going into modelling when he hits 38 years old. He is so full of himself.

aro13

Bill James has a method called the favourite toy. It estimates the chances of a player reaching a certain goal.

Jeter's chances of reaching 3000 hits is: 75%
Jeter's chances of reaching 4000 hits is: 7%

Arod's chances of reaching 3000 hits is: 52%
Arod's chances of reaching 4000 hits is: less than 1%



Other players chances of reaching 3000 hits:
Ivan Rodriguez 23%
Johnny Damon 23%
Ichiro Suziki 7%
Michael Young 19%
Vladimir Guerrero 43%
Albert Pujols 35%
Juan Pierre 25%