Does vintage unopened wax always go up in value

tombo

I have a theoretical question regarding the "drying up" of vintage unopened wax and the ensuing rise in value of what remains. Let's say there are 1000 unopened legitimate wax boxes of 1975 Topps baseball left in the world. Over the next year 980 of those boxes are opened leaving 20 unopened in the world. That would make that a rare item in terms of quantity. What would happen to the value of those boxes? If those 980 boxes revealed 10 PSA 10's of Brett, Yount, Ryan, Aaron and so on, the values on those individual cards would most likely drop. So, if the big draw of unopened wax is to score a PSA 10 of Brett, Yount etc. and those cards drop in value wouldn't that temper to some degree the rise in value of the remaining wax? Or does vintage unopened wax retain its value regardless of population counts?

ToppsCo1lector

Vintage unopened will almost always be worth more than the opened product.

mikeschmidt

There are a few factors in determining the value of unopened vintage (not just wax)

The potential intrisinic value of cards inside. Obviously weighted if there is a star rookie card possible, for example

The supply of vintage unopened for that year/brand. A 1969 OPC baseball pack, while probably having few 'valuable' cards inside would be worth a lot of money, because many have never even seen one to exist.

The demand is the other side of the equation, which is somewhat related to the potential value. 1952 Topps wax -- high demand, it is a popular set. 1951 Topps unopened packs -- they largely have not kept with inflation over the last 10 years. Too high of supply given the deman.

Also realize that supply is not a 'static' item, with a known population today that only decreases. Sometimes that is the case -- like with the 1948 Leaf find that Alan Rosen found many moons ago. But other finds increase population -- like the 1953 Topps find, the OPC Canadian find (sans 1969s), Fritsch's vending to hit the market, etc. etc.

grote15

To use the year in the example you noted, 1975 packs have decreased rather significantly over the past few years. Ungraded mini wax packs used to go for $50 and up a couple of years back, now you'd be lucky to get $30. The 75 cellos have dropped in price, too. A couple of years ago they went for $80-$100, now they go for $60-$70. Mini cellos used to go for $200 and up in a GAI 9 holder, now they go for $75.

AlanAllen

Pre-1968 wax is the one area of the hobby that I've never decline to any significant amount. Supply is steadily decreasing as packs get busted, and demand for both fresh singles and the unopened packs themselves keeps rising. If you don't believe the collector value of unopened packs themselves, look at the prices some penny packs bring, for essentially a stained common, a stale stick of gum, and a wrapper.

To address the thrust of your question, I think for most sets the 9's and 10's sitting inside unopened packs is a small enough amount that demand for the rest of the packs would not significantly wane if most packs were busted. I think the increased demand for the packs due to fewer remaining would far outweigh any decreased demand due to pops.

Joe

grote15

True, the pre-1969 stuff is your best bet for long-term value, but how many of us can afford to purchase any of those packs in quantity? A NM 1968 wax pack commands at least $300 on ebay, and rack packs from that era are virtually non-existent.

In general, I've found that rack packs have sustained their value better than wax or cello--I'm not exactly sure why this is, but it may just be due to scarcer product.

TheCARDKid

1961/62 Fleer basketball is sort of similar to your hypothetical.

I remember 10-15 years when packs were much more available (kicking myself I never bought any!). It had great content value; small set, tons of HOF'ers and stars. The set is notorious for OC's and horrible centering, but I guess it didn't stop people.

Alot of them got opened up over the years. The pop numbers went up on the Chamberlain, Russell, etc. You dont see as many packs available now.

But prices have still crept up. The content value is still there (only a 66 card set), no big finds, and demand is solid.

Stone193

My general impression without looking it up.

Very old wax - earlier than 1972 has performed pretty well since 1990.

E.g., as late as 1994, you could pick up a solid 52T pack for around 1800$ - now? I would say more like 4-5K?

Whereas, a 79T wax box would cost about 300$ around 1992 - today you can pick it up for 360$ from BBCEx.

Some stuff has actually gone down in value - during the height of wax buying - around 1991'ish - if I pull an old SCD, I think a box of 82 or 83T would set you back around 275$ - now? $135 each.

So, if you're looking for investment - I would say - and this is totally gut and non-scientific - go with the earliest possible that one can afford.

Finally on your other question? About opening this stuff.

My belief? Unopened is for buying and selling - not fer open'n.

Just imagine buying an entire case of 1974 or 5 wax - and find that too many of the cards are OC. It can happen.

mike

DeutscherGeist

Too many people got burned with resealed packs, so many are turned off by unopened vintage material. Its really hard to know for sure if something had been opened before or not. Its not like there are vocational schools training people the skill to spot resealed packs. I don't know how GAI does it, but buying graded wax is the safer way to go.

Estil

<< <i>Vintage unopened will almost always be worth more than the opened product. >>



Indeed, even 1980s wax boxes are very often worth much more than a complete set, even though it's not possible to make a set out of a wax box. That's because you're paying for the rarity of the complete unopened wax box, not neccesairly for the cards inside.

mikeschmidt

<< <i>
Indeed, even 1980s wax boxes are very often worth much more than a complete set, even though it's not possible to make a set out of a wax box. That's because you're paying for the rarity of the complete unopened wax box, not neccesairly for the cards inside. >>



Well, there is also a volatility factor that makes an unopened box more valuable than a complete set. It is quite possible to pull doubles, or even triples, from an unopened box...and that triple can be a star rookie card. Whereas a complete set is a known equation -- you know precisely what you will get.

So although an unopened wax box will have a lower expected yield (in terms of value) than a complete set, it is quite possible that you hit the lottery, so to speak, and pick the 1985 Topps Wax box that is full of multiple McGwires, Clemens and Pucketts.

spazzy

<< <i>My general impression without looking it up.

Very old wax - earlier than 1972 has performed pretty well since 1990.

E.g., as late as 1994, you could pick up a solid 52T pack for around 1800$ - now? I would say more like 4-5K?

Whereas, a 79T wax box would cost about 300$ around 1992 - today you can pick it up for 360$ from BBCEx.

Some stuff has actually gone down in value - during the height of wax buying - around 1991'ish - if I pull an old SCD, I think a box of 82 or 83T would set you back around 275$ - now? $135 each.

So, if you're looking for investment - I would say - and this is totally gut and non-scientific - go with the earliest possible that one can afford.

Finally on your other question? About opening this stuff.

My belief? Unopened is for buying and selling - not fer open'n.

Just imagine buying an entire case of 1974 or 5 wax - and find that too many of the cards are OC. It can happen.

mike >>

Well said....But its always nice to open a pack once in awhile to put things in perspective. It takes a crazy individual like me to keep the wax boxes closed. To me it is art in a pristine state. When i think where that box had to be before I got it (hopefully not resealed hands). Someone kept a 1960s box for all those years as an example...I just have to keep it closed...although my mind is saying RIPPPPPPPP.....

Stone193

Spazzy

On the laying low with wax - you're not alone.

I have wax back to '76 and vending back to '79 - have no intention of ripping it.

Down the road...?

Maybe.

mike

blindflyer

<< <i>

Well, there is also a volatility factor that makes an unopened box more valuable than a complete set. It is quite possible to pull doubles, or even triples, from an unopened box...and that triple can be a star rookie card. Whereas a complete set is a known equation -- you know precisely what you will get.

So although an unopened wax box will have a lower expected yield (in terms of value) than a complete set, it is quite possible that you hit the lottery, so to speak, and pick the 1985 Topps Wax box that is full of multiple McGwires, Clemens and Pucketts. >>



Agree 100% .... I would also add that some sets (especially hockey and football), the liklihood of getting multiples of a star RC is very high.

I'm a collector of '85 Topps Hockey. The set only has 165 cards, including the Mario Lemieux RC. That rookie goes for $165 in PSA 9 and well into the $800+ range for PSa 10. On average, you get FOUR Lemieux' per box.

Boxes sell for around $600, precisely b/c of that fact.

-t