Your picks against the spread for this weekend's play-off games ...

wolfbear · January 3, 2007 12:58AM

stevek has a theory that the opinions expressed here are usually wrong.
My plan is to test that theory by betting the opposite of the consensus of the board.

I'll start it off :

KC + 7 at Indy
Dall + 3 at Seattle
NYJ + 8.5 at NE
Phil - 7 vs NYG

IrishMike · January 3, 2007 2:20AM

Take the opposite of my picks if you want to win.

Indy
Dallas
Jets
Giants

ziggy29 · January 3, 2007 4:04AM

KC, Dallas, NE, NYG.

I don't trust Indy in the playoffs, and I don't bet against Belichick and Brady in the playoffs. I think Philly wins but doesn't cover.

ctsoxfan · January 3, 2007 5:36AM

For some reason, I think Indy comes to play this week - and blows the Chiefs out. Also, New England wins, but does not cover.

Indy -7
Seattle -3
Jets +8.5
Giants +7

stevek · January 3, 2007 6:01AM

I'm an ex-gambler and no longer bet, and do not analyze games against the spread for gambling purposes, but I do enjoy looking at the bookie odds to see the basic chances of my team winning the game. I saw a study about ten years ago of many thousands of pro and college football games, I think it was five years worth, and the study showed against the spread the favorites won 49.9% of the time and the dogs 50.1%. The books are uncannily accurate in their forecasts.

I said in an earlier thread the Eagles would be -9 and the current line is -7 so that's about right. Actually it's not really that hard to do somewhat accurate lines yourself if having fundamental knowledge about the teams. So what the bookies do with the lines is not "magic" by any means.

Nobody beats the books in the long-run and I do mean nobody, but I never rooted against a gambler in my life so in that regard I hope everyone here wins. I say if you have a good weekend...take the money and run because if you don't, then sooner or later your money will windup in the bank account of someone like Calvin Ayre who owns Bodog. I'd rather keep my money in my bank account - I figure Calvin Ayre already has enough money - he don't need any more!

Steve

iamthegreatcornholio · January 3, 2007 7:06AM

The only play I like is Indy -7

Gun-to-head, I'd take Pats -8.5, Seattle -3 and NYG +7.

rbdjr1 · January 3, 2007 7:29AM

Indy
Seattle
NE
NYG

jaxxr · January 3, 2007 10:19AM

I'd bet em this way;

100 on Indy -7, 50 on Dallas +3, and just to have some action, 20 on Jets +8.5, 20 on Phil. -7.

stevek · January 3, 2007 1:10PM

Interesting here right now the stronger trend towards the Giants. So this means right now according to the "theory" that the Eagles cover, right? LOL

A big factor in my view in which I thought the Eagles would be a higher favorite, is the fact that the Eagles rested their key players and most of their starters in their last game. It wasn't technically the same thing as a bye week, but those players should have fresher legs going into this game. I think that's important at this late stage in the season. I had the Eagles at -6 without this factor and threw in -3 more for this factor giving it -9. Evidently the books don't see that factor as worth that much.

Also I think Tiki gave his absolute all in that last game, him figuring it might be his last game. I just have to think he's going to try hard in this game, but his body isn't going to respond...I think he has an off game which doesn't bode well for the Giants.

Of course you can accurately handicap any sporting event and the game could play out exactly as forecasted, but because of the way "the ball bounces" just one interception or fumble can screwup the point spread...this fact combined with the bookies juice is the main reason bookies get rich while sports bettors get poor.

-

kuhlmann · January 3, 2007 1:16PM

dallas ML this is not a homer pick.. bc seattle has no secondary for this game!

like the eagles to cover so hopefully they lose out right

like indy to crush kc

and i like the jets with the points!

grote15 · January 3, 2007 1:19PM

Jets are now getting 9.5 points, a nice number I think. That game ought to be tight all the way through. Jets-Pats games usually are.

If Dallas can't beat a Seattle team that is in the playoffs by default because no one else in the pathetic NFC West wanted to go, then this has to be one Parcells' most disappointing seasons of all. It's now been almost 10 years since he's coached a team that won a playoff team and I think this is the perfect matchup to end that drought.

Bosox1976 · January 4, 2007 8:46AM

Hard to make the call on the Pats game until Wilfork's status is clear (esp. if up to 9.5). I like the Eagles & Seahawks giving and KC with the points.

thegemmintman · January 4, 2007 11:47AM

Indy -7

Seattle -3

Jets +9

Phi -7

The only value however is with the Jets.

joestalin · January 4, 2007 12:19PM

There are a few good games. I think Jets/Patsies will be close. Indy is going to blow out KC. I can see Philly rolling, but they have
choked before. I could care less who wins Seattle/Dallas as they both suck.

JS

wolfbear · January 4, 2007 2:00PM

Okay, I've got joestalin down for :

Indy
NYJ AND NE
Philly AND NYG
Sea AND Dall

Just like Bruce Gradkowski, Tim Rattay, and Chris Simms.
Lots of indecision when the pressure is on. HAPPY FEET! HAPPY FEET!

joestalin · January 4, 2007 2:27PM

more like

Indy wins big
Philly takes and early lead and blows it
Jets lead Patsies all the way until the Zebras take over.
Still dont' care about the other game.

JS

stevek · January 4, 2007 7:31PM

<<< Philly takes and early lead and blows it >>>

Joe - Thank you. With your prediction against the Eagles, it is now guaranteed the Eagles will win the game.

That is much appreciated. Thanks again!

Steve

stevek · January 4, 2007 7:48PM

UT OH - I see a bad one developing here

1) NYJ + 8.5 at NE

2) Jets

3) Jets +8.5

4) 20 on Jets +8.5

5) and i like the jets with the points!

6) Jets are now getting 9.5 points, a nice number I think

7) Jets +9

8) Jets lead Patsies all the way until the Zebras take over (wishy-washy, sounds like a Pats win but the Jets with the points, Stalin can correct that if he wishes)

thegemmintman · January 4, 2007 9:50PM

kcballboy · January 4, 2007 10:07PM

KC/Indy will not be a blow out but I do expect Indy to win.

Pats will win because they are the far better team, not because of the Zebra Conspiracy theory.

Eagles will lead early and not blow it. It's ELI Manning on the field, afterall.

Dallas won't be able to do anything to stop Seattle.

IrishMike · January 4, 2007 10:13PM

With as descimated as Seattle's secondary is Dallas should win this game easily.

stevek · January 7, 2007 7:19AM

<< UT OH - I see a bad one developing here

1) NYJ + 8.5 at NE

2) Jets

3) Jets +8.5

4) 20 on Jets +8.5

5) and i like the jets with the points!

6) Jets are now getting 9.5 points, a nice number I think

7) Jets +9

8) Jets lead Patsies all the way until the Zebras take over (wishy-washy, sounds like a Pats win but the Jets with the points, Stalin can correct that if he wishes) >>

<<<<< has a theory >>>>>

Maybe it's not a theory?

The main thing, it is hoped nobody gets hurt with the bookies.

-

iamthegreatcornholio · January 7, 2007 9:06AM

The books made money on the Pats/Jets game, they were begging people to take the Jets.

I'm waiting for the Bears line. I'm hoping the Bears line is as soft as yesterday's Indy line.

Edit:

Next week line's are

Chargers -5 vs. Patriots; opened Chargers -6

Ravens -4.5 vs. Colts; opened Ravens -3.5

Saints -5 vs. Eagles; opened Saints -4

Bears -9.5 vs. Seahawks; opened -7.5 and jumped from to -9.5 in 3 minutes

I was hoping to get the Bears around -6

stevek · January 7, 2007 9:13AM

<< The books made money on the Pats/Jets game, they were begging people to take the Jets.

I'm waiting for the Bears line. I'm hoping the Bears line is as soft as yesterday's Indy line.

Edit:

Next week line's are

Chargers -5 vs. Patriots

Ravens -4.5 vs. Colts

Saints -4 vs. Eagles

Bears -7.5 vs. Seahawks

I was hoping to get the Bears around -6

>>

Wow, I was just getting ready to post and saw your edit right after I clicked the "quote" - I swear I was gonna say Bears -6 1/2 LOL

I hadn't yet thought about the Eagles line, but Saints -4 seems about right. The line could move 1/2 point either way during the week but I think that's about it.

ziggy29 · January 7, 2007 9:19AM

I've seen the Bears take some real dumps at home (Arizona, Green Bay) and I'm not willing to give up 9.5 to take them against a decent opponent.

iamthegreatcornholio · January 7, 2007 9:19AM

<< I hadn't yet thought about the Eagles line, but Saints -4 seems about right. The line could move 1/2 point either way during the week but I think that's about it. >>

The lines move a ton when they first come out, it's moved to Saints -5 already. If it moved to -7, I'd bite on the Eagles.

Imagine if in August you said the Ravens are favored over the Colts, the Chargers favored over the Patriots, and the Saints favored over the Eagles all in the playoffs in the same week... that's what makes the NFL so great!

iamthegreatcornholio · January 7, 2007 9:22AM

<< I've seen the Bears take some real dumps at home (Arizona, Green Bay) and I'm not willing to give up 9.5 to take them against a decent opponent. >>

Arizona was on the road, and the GB game didn't affect their seeding.

I agree that -9.5 is tough to take, but I don't see how people could take Seattle.

stevek · January 7, 2007 9:23AM

<< 

<< I hadn't yet thought about the Eagles line, but Saints -4 seems about right. The line could move 1/2 point either way during the week but I think that's about it. >>

The lines move a ton when they first come out, it's moved to Saints -5 already. If it moved to -7, I'd bite on the Eagles.

Imagine if in August you said the Ravens are favored over the Colts, the Chargers favored over the Patriots, and the Saints favored over the Eagles all in the playoffs in the same week... that's what makes the NFL so great! >>

Brian - where is the website you are getting this from if you don't mind my asking? Thanks!

stevek · January 7, 2007 9:26AM

Actually of all the NFC playoff teams...for my Eagles I feared the Saints the least. No possible way that line goes to 7.

ziggy29 · January 7, 2007 9:27AM

<< Actually of all the NFC playoff teams...for my Eagles I feared the Saints the least. No possible way that line goes to 7. >>

I don't know. That offense has been pretty prolific. Their shredding of the Cowboys in Dallas still remains fresh in my mind.

iamthegreatcornholio · January 7, 2007 9:32AM

The Superdome can get quite noisy. Historically, rested teams do quite well in the divsional round.

Brian - where is the website you are getting this from if you don't mind my asking? Thanks!

Steve, pinnacle

stevek · January 7, 2007 9:42AM

<< The Superdome can get quite noisy. Historically, rested teams do quite well in the divsional round.

Brian - where is the website you are getting this from if you don't mind my asking? Thanks!

Steve, pinnacle >>

Thanks!

You're of course right about the rested teams historically doing well. It may have occured maybe a few times that the rested teams split 2 - 2 straight up, but usually it's 3 - 1 or 4 - 0. Just going from memory I would have to say it's usually 3 - 1 so I'm hopeful this season the Eagles will be that "1"

-

rbdjr1 · January 7, 2007 10:26AM

<< Indy
Seattle
NE
NYG >>

Covered 3 of 4

rd

Your picks against the spread for this weekend's play-off games ...

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