How are the non-W unc 2006 mintages looking? I have a quarter oz 2006 in PCGS MS69-- I see a spike in platinum sales according to the mint's website in October, but does that reflect the sales of the W coins?
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
"Did you know there is a series of coins which has a total mintage of only about 17,000 coins? This mintage spans a total of 8 years. The total number of surviving coins graded GEM or higher is only about 10% of the original mintage. And this particular series is arguably the most widely collected series in numismatics. And, the vast majority of these coins can be purchased for less than the price of 1oz of platinum. This series meets all 3 or your criteria, yet appears to have not reached its potential."
"I'm listing a PF70 2005 W quarter ouncer on ebay today.... starting at twenty five bucks.... We'll see how RARE and WANTED the piece is. I'll report back when I end up selling it... that is , if I get any bids"
Hey, save da fees, we don't want no stink'n Proof, man!
<< <i>PCGS MS70 Plats - imo, this is where the collecting is interesting. >>
I agree. A very interesting series gets most challenging at this level. If one cares to delve into this level of collecting, it is definately where much of the fun and excitement can be found.
ps. It is too bad you pulled your post Bear. It was RIGHT ON!
"You seem to have missed the point. The proof Plats also are W mint coins. The total pops of the W mint Plats include both proofs and MS coins, so the higher proof mintage could hold back the value of the MS coin."
I know you are not dumb, so perhaps that's why I missed 'your point'.
The fact that they each are made with different type die, process and at different times, doesn't that matter anymore?
Why is it in the PCGS book MS and Proof's are in different sections with unique #'s, if they are one in the same? Maybe we shouldn't let facts get in the way of finding that answer?
Are you suggesting that all Proofs/Uncs from ANY series should not be differentiated ?
I was lambasted a few weeks ago in this Forum for even trying to suggest your very 'point'. My excuse was I was new and I had never seen a Plat W-Unc to a Plat W-Poof, (which I also own).
Last week I saw a big difference in the two series, side by side.
However, to be impartial on detecting a difference between the two, I decided to attempt the Laura Test , a gal whom I think is pretty sharp. (My 3-year old daughter)
I pulled her away from her busy schedule of playing with her vast collection of "Littlest Pets" and placed the two coins side by side ( $50 W-Proof against the $50 W-Unc.).
I then asked her what was "the shinier looking" coin. Low and behold she picked out the 'newer' looking one (Proof), every time.
Why would you make such a statement like the one above?
Why did I say what I did? Because you miss the point or are refusing to address the point. Yes proof and MS are different finishes. But in other series the availability of proofs has a dampening effect on the price of coins that are scarce in MS condition. Why would this series be different?
Now, lets look at your title to this post. Do you have any data to support the contention that there is growing interest in this series?
Lets see, what might be an indicator of growing popularity? How about the mintage numbers. You posted the mintage figures for the MS coins. What did that show? The lowest mintage in the series. But if there is growing popularity in the series, why didn't the mint receive more orders? In other words, wasn't the mintage low because demand was low because there are few collectors who wanted these coins?
Now it also appears from other posts on this forum, including one that counted the number of 1 oz pieces purchased, that a substantial percentage of the mintage went to speculators. So if the present collector base for MS specimens already purchased theirs from the Mint, perhaps the mintage figures really show that the number of coins extant is high relative to the number of collectors.
Now, maybe the collector base with grow. Ok. I'll accept that premise. But new collectors will have a choice between the MS and the proof pieces. So the proof population needs to be taken into account in assessing the rarity of the 2006-W coins.
Why do you have a problem with accepting that concept?
"Wondercoin's post seems to say that the collectors base for Plats is in the proofs"
CG - Without question, IMHO, the collector base for Proof Plat is far more advanced and matured than it is for MS coins. For example, while the lowest MS Platinum mintage (pre-2006) is the 2005 $100 MS Plat at around 6,300 mintage, after a year, the coin enjoys very little in the way of a "premium". Interestingly, the 2005 $100 PROOF sports nearly the identical (low) mintage as the 2005 MS $100 counterpart, but, the Proof coin is worth roughly a 50%-100% premium already, while the MS coin does not enjoy such a premium. And, quite frankly, I believe that MS mintages over 5,000 in the Plat series would have a hard time maintaining a meaningful premium right now due to the less than mature collector base. On the other hand, a Proof Plat mintage of roughly 5,000 coins (like the 2004 $50 and $25 coins) already has developed a 300%-500% premium.
So, did the US Mint simply speed up the process for collectors to be introduced to the world of MS Platinum collecting by creating a number of 2,500 - 3,750 mintage coins all at once? At the moment, it sure looks that way. Perhaps the bigger question becomes whether the Mint has to continue to offer such low mintage alternatives to keep collectors perpetually interested in the series. For example, in 2007, would collectors want to collect the MS versions of the coins if the Mint sold 6,000-10,000 units per denomination? In other words, could these "w" MS coins actually hurt the Mint's future sales for years to come? Stay tuned!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
The platinum bullion is the best product the US Mint is currently striking. The designs are better than any business strike coins for circulation. I like them.
There is much speculation and hoarding on mintage anticipation.
They are not rare. They are not scarce. Do not fall into the trap of comparing mintages of platinum bullion to classic US coins. Compare SURVIVAL of the classic US coins and it is easy to see the platinum is common. If a mintage comes in at under 500, then you would have a scarce issue.
New issues are always have strong demand, speculation, and hoarding. The 1984 Olympic $10 P nd D Mints sold for $1000 shortly after issue, then slowly drifted down to $250 when the hoards were dispersed and the novelty wore off.
I would like to buy more of the platinum issues, but not for investment. Or perhaps the price of platinum will never fall?
Robert Scot: Engraving Liberty - biography of US Mint's first chief engraver
I thank CoinBoy for a superlative write-up on the "supply-side" economics of the platinum coins. I propose to take his explanation for "Why didn't the Mint make more/Why didn't more people initially buy them" one step further:
In August, the Mint released three items with a tremendous profit potential. Additionally, two of the three had unique "reverse proof" coins that many, including myself, wanted to own. I believe that many of the deep-pocketed folks who would normally have bought platinum when it came on sale in September/October already had thousands of liquidity tied up in 20th Anniversary sets (Gold, Silver, and Two-Coin) and consequently, they did not buy. The lack of orders in the first month or two caused the Mint to project less demand than usual, and therefore to make fewer coins than usual.
Most speculators' (and that's what I call us--and I do include myself in there) liquidity was returned in December as people received and sold their 20th Anniversary Sets, giving them enough cash/credit to finally purchase platinum. I believe that a) as people come to realize what a rarity the platinum coins are and b) as more peoples' liquidity is restored after Christmas, we'll see these coins begin a steady rise.
I heard they were making a French version of Medal of Honor. I wonder how many hotkeys it'll have for "surrender."
"CG - Without question, IMHO, the collector base for Proof Plat is far more advanced and matured than it is for MS coins. For example, while the lowest MS Platinum mintage (pre-2006) is the 2005 $100 MS Plat at around 6,300 mintage, after a year, the coin enjoys very little in the way of a "premium". Interestingly, the 2005 $100 PROOF sports nearly the identical (low) mintage as the 2005 MS $100 counterpart, but, the Proof coin is worth roughly a 50%-100% premium already, while the MS coin does not enjoy such a premium. And, quite frankly, I believe that MS mintages over 5,000 in the Plat series would have a hard time maintaining a meaningful premium right now due to the less than mature collector base. On the other hand, a Proof Plat mintage of roughly 5,000 coins (like the 2004 $50 and $25 coins) already has developed a 300%-500% premium.
So, did the US Mint simply speed up the process for collectors to be introduced to the world of MS Platinum collecting by creating a number of 2,500 - 3,750 mintage coins all at once? At the moment, it sure looks that way. Perhaps the bigger question becomes whether the Mint has to continue to offer such low mintage alternatives to keep collectors perpetually interested in the series. For example, in 2007, would collectors want to collect the MS versions of the coins if the Mint sold 6,000-10,000 units per denomination? In other words, could these "w" MS coins actually hurt the Mint's future sales for years to come? Stay tuned!
<<Only 15 of these were issued - they should be considered Classic Rarities! 1000 ounce coin >>
There was one of these on ebay sometime within the past year. Had great pictures of it being hauled off of the Brinks truck. The reserve wasn't met, the bid was somewhere over $500,000...
Is there a way to search ebay for completed listings going back over a year?
<< <i>Only 15 of these were issued - they should be considered Classic Rarities! 1000 ounce coin >>
This is a PDF file.
The coin is the Austrian Philharmonic issue gold coin.
There are hundreds of darkside coins with mintages under 1000 that can be picked up quite cheaply. Indeed, if you look at many of the modern proofs you'll see mintages of around 250 that sell for substantially less than the business strikes with mintages in the multi-million. You might say that this is because there is more demand for the business strike but there's more to it; the business strike is often tougher.
<< <i><<Only 15 of these were issued - they should be considered Classic Rarities! 1000 ounce coin >>
There was one of these on ebay sometime within the past year. Had great pictures of it being hauled off of the Brinks truck. The reserve wasn't met, the bid was somewhere over $500,000...
Is there a way to search ebay for completed listings going back over a year? >>
I saw that listing - it was cool.
TDN, Now you are being sarcastic. It is a darkside coin, immensly expensive
not part of a series. This is a silly example and not worthy of you.
Moi?
It's legal tender - 100,000 euros. It's a unique type. I wonder if it's slabbable...
I can only imagine how sweet it would be to hold that coin in my hands. I once had the chance to hold a one pound rod of 24-karat gold, as well as one of pure platinum and I was giddy for months about it. (Even though there was no chance in hell of me ever actually owning those rods. Just being able to hold them made me a bit giddy).
I collect the elements on the periodic table, and some coins. I have a complete Roosevelt set, and am putting together a set of coins from 1880.
"Do you have any data to support the contention that there is growing interest in this series?”
Yes, without a doubt.
You stated that Proof Sales will cut into MS Plat Value.
I say not for the Year 2006 W-Unc. Nothing will be lower in Mintage against these 2006 Plats for a long time.
My contention in the first post of this thread was that the inaugural "W"-Unc series cut into "No-W" Dealer Bullion Sales. These dealers, in-turn sell to the public. I never mentioned any effect from the Proofs.
But now that you did, here is some neat data that reinforces my contention of a huge Mint production miss-calculation, based on what THEY perceived was going to happen, not what was going actually going on in the market. :
In the last 5 years, Platinum has moved from $480 to almost $1,350 an oz. and now hovers near $1,120 (per Kitco)
Sales Figures for Proofs ONLY for 5 years, shown below: (2006 sales are as of 12/18/06 - NN)
Year Product Option Mintage Product Limit Total Unit Price 2006 Platinum One Ounce 14,000 4,000 3,245 $1,345.00 2006 Platinum One-Half Ounce 13,000 3,000 1,659 $735.00 2006 Platinum One-Quarter Ounce 15,000 5,000 1,387 $435.00 2006 Platinum One-Tenth Ounce 20,000 10,000 3,505 $220.00 2006 Platinum Four Coin Set N/A 10,000 5,035 $2,750.00
Sales Figures for Proofs ONLY for 10 years, shown below: (2006 sales are as of 12/18/06 - NN)
Year Product Option Units Sold Price 2006 Platinum Four Coin Set 5,035 $2,750.00 2005 Platinum Four Coin Set 3,237 $2,495.00 2004 Platinum Four Coin Set 3,990 $2,495.00 2003 Platinum Four Coin Set 5,296 $1,995.00 2002 Platinum Four Coin Set 6,762 $1,375.00 2001 Platinum Four Coin Set 6,344 $1,375.00 2000 Platinum Four Coin Set 8,535 $1,375.00 1999 Platinum Four Coin Set 8,578 $1,350.00 1998 Platinum Four Coin Set 9,926 $1,350.00 1997 Platinum Four Coin Set 7,971 $1,350.00
Year Product Option Units Sold Price 2006 1 oz. Platinum 8,280 $2,750.00 2005 1 oz. Platinum 4,900 $2,495.00 2004 1 oz. Platinum 6,007 $2,495.00 2003 1 oz. Platinum 8,246 $1,995.00 2002 1 oz. Platinum 9,834 $1,375.00 2001 1 oz. Platinum 8,969 $1,375.00 2000 1 oz. Platinum 12,453 $1,375.00 1999 1 oz. Platinum 12,363 $1,350.00 1998 1 oz. Platinum 14,912 $1,350.00 1997 1 oz. Platinum 15,886 $1,350.00
Graph the Data on your own or see attachment, but what we CLEARLY SEE IS A BOTTOM AT THE END OF 2005 AND REVERSAL for AN INCREASE IN PROOF SALES (about 40% for the number of Proof sets sold, almost a 100% increase in the number of 1.oz Proof coins from the previous year) all when the price of Platinum has moved almost 15% in the last year, not counting any price spike.
If you go to the Unc Sales page for Plats SOLD TO DEALERS, you will see a continued sales reduction of Dealer purchases.
I can’t help but think that dealers were mad at the Mint in 2004-2005 and 2006 when it was rumored, then announced, and then it occurred of these sales of Unc by the Mint were made to the public. The Mint killed it’s best customer by cutting out the middlemen, and then came up short on supplying the Unc market by dropping the ball on the production and leaving us with a great wind-fall.
Summation:
In the real-world, Platinum price sky-rockets, and PROOF sales explode!
The Mint creates a real shortage of Unc’s by cutting back on Mintage of an inaugural issue of the W-Unc’s. Perhaps they wanted to focus on the Proof Business?
All in all, I think I have made my point.
BTW, here is some additional info that shows how the public is just catching on. Look at the sales price of each Proof unit price relative to the raw price of Platinum. For example in 2001, raw was at $490 an ounce, while the 1 oz. Proof sold for $1,375. In 2006, raw peaked near $1,350 and you could grab a 1 oz. Proof for $1,500. This accounts for the almost doubling of sales from 2005 to 2006. There is a huge amount of data that can be mined out here to study the Mintages against supply and demand for the entire series.
Pricing vs, Raw: Sales after 1997 were greatly affected by the spread between the Mint Price and the raw Platinum price. It was huge! They were pigs! This exorbitant price disparity of the early years to me is the #1 reason it took the Plat coins so long to catch on with the Public. If the mint keeps this price gap tight like it is now, sales will continue to explode.
Boy, is some one could just graph the 10 year Price of Platinum against the 10 year price of a 1.oz Proof, and it is easy to see how the Mint almost killed off this great coin.
Look at the sales explosion the first year. Then the public realized they were getting ripped-off on the price spread so they backed off and started to avoid it. When the mint finally let the price of raw Platinum catch up to the price of the Proof, weary customers returned. If the Mint is smart, they will act more like Walmart with this series rather than like Nieman Marcus and keep it affordable relative to the raw. Then everyone will be happy. (especially the early year collectors ;>
I think this is a great thread, CoinBoy! Nice work running the numbers for us! I tend to think that this freight train of platinum (both proof and w-unc) is just starting to gain some momentum. There are a few additional factors that have not been considered so far:
1) I think that most of the general collecting world does not even know about the w-unc plats yet. I don't recall seeing any publicity materials (mailings, emails, etc) about the w-unc plats. The only place they are getting attention is on the boards, and recent issues of NN, CW, etc. I have the great suspicion that there are only a few of us that are in on what can only be described as the newest and best kept secret in modern collecting.
2) Despite my comments in #1 above, the plat are starting to attract some attention. It just barely started in early 2005 when the low mintages of the 2004 proof series became news. Now, we have the secret w-uncs that blow the 2004 numbers out of the water. These two events will draw a great deal of attention to the series over the next few years.
3) The mint will be producing a 10th Anniv plat set that will include a reverse proof coin that will be heavily promoted, sell out quickly, and attract even more attention to the series. The 20th Anniv silver reverse proofs come in at about 1/3 of the "standard" mintage of silver proof eagles. The 20th Anniv gold reverse proofs come in at about 1/3 to 1/2 of the "standard" mintage of gold proof eagles. Using this as a guide, I would expect to see no more than 2,500 to 3,000 platinum 10th Anniv sets next year. I would also hope that the mint limits orders of these to 2 or 3 per address.
Thus, for platinum collectors, we have significant, interest-generating events in 2004, 2006, and 2007 for a series that has been running for 10 years. The secret will be out for sure by the end of next year!
I am seriously considering doing the same thing that David said above - selling off the rest of my collection (of moderns) to focus on the platinums. I have been working on the 1/2oz proofs by rarity and so far I have the 2001, 2003-2006 and now the 2006-wunc 1/2. I'm thinking that it would be prudent to fill in all of my missing 1/2oz proofs before the end of next year...
Eric
EAC member since 2011, one third of the way through my 1793 large cent type set
<< <i>""The fact is from my little CoinBoy understanding of the basics of coin collecting;, I read that there are three factors that decide how Valuable the coin is relative to the Market and the value all other coin(s) competing against it:
1.) Rarity - number of pieces and most important, the number that survive (*check* - see list above) 2.) Condition/Grade - level of preservation... (*check* - no 'secret sauce' or 'scrubbing bubbles' needed to get a *good* grade for this series) 3.) Popularity - (*check*) When I take the three basics and really focus on this third basic, i.e. Popularity, can anyone tell me the last time a modern sold-out by the Mint and that was priced over $2,500 and nearly doubling within a week of a close out? Is there a comp out there we can measure this against? The 2006 American Eagle 20th Anniversary Gold 3 Coin Set? with 10K RP? ok, anything else? Some additional *Popularity Growth Factors* that are just exploding right now for the Moderns and the Plats ""
Did you know there is a series of coins which has a total mintage of only about 17,000 coins? This mintage spans a total of 8 years. The total number of surviving coins graded GEM or higher is only about 10% of the original mintage. And this particular series is arguably the most widely collected series in numismatics. And, the vast majority of these coins can be purchased for less than the price of 1oz of platinum.
This series meets all 3 or your criteria, yet appears to have not reached its potential. IMHO, the Plats are promotion "coins" minted for investors, not collectors. Please dont think I am "bashing" them, as I am not. I think they are a great opportunity to make a few bucks. I will. And then I will reinvest that new found money into a truely scarce series. >>
Did you know there is a series of coins which has a total mintage of only about 17,000 coins? This mintage spans a total of 8 years. The total number of surviving coins graded GEM or higher is only about 10% of the original mintage. And this particular series is arguably the most widely collected series in numismatics. And, the vast majority of these coins can be purchased for less than the price of 1oz of platinum.
This series meets all 3 or your criteria, yet appears to have not reached its potential. IMHO, the Plats are promotion "coins" minted for investors, not collectors. Please dont think I am "bashing" them, as I am not. I think they are a great opportunity to make a few bucks. I will. And then I will reinvest that new found money into a truely scarce series. >>
What series is this? >>
If I were going to guess it's the Franklin proofs from 1950 to 1963. These coins are within everyones price range but they are strickly collectors value at this point since they cost a few bucks from the mint and have doubled many times now. Unlike the 1oz Plats that if purchased from the mint are close to the metal value at this point. If you get just under $2800 for one on the secondary market it seems like a lot but that's only double and Platinum in a high value metal unlike silver. I collect this series too.
Did you know there is a series of coins which has a total mintage of only about 17,000 coins? This mintage spans a total of 8 years. The total number of surviving coins graded GEM or higher is only about 10% of the original mintage. And this particular series is arguably the most widely collected series in numismatics. And, the vast majority of these coins can be purchased for less than the price of 1oz of platinum.
This series meets all 3 or your criteria, yet appears to have not reached its potential. IMHO, the Plats are promotion "coins" minted for investors, not collectors. Please dont think I am "bashing" them, as I am not. I think they are a great opportunity to make a few bucks. I will. And then I will reinvest that new found money into a truely scarce series. >>
What series is this? >>
If I were going to guess it's the Franklin proofs from 1950 to 1963. These coins are within everyones price range but they are strickly collectors value at this point since they cost a few bucks from the mint and have doubled many times now. Unlike the 1oz Plats that if purchased from the mint are close to the metal value at this point. If you get just under $2800 for one on the secondary market it seems like a lot but that's only double and Platinum in a high value metal unlike silver. I collect this series too. >>
<< <i>A think a lot of the "backlash" against the platinum coins is due to the fact that there is a new thread on the platinum coins every few minutes or so. I myself believe that this "popularity" is short term and that the demand for these coins will fade away because 1): People these days have very short attention spans and what's "popular" now may not be in a few short moments, and 2): Not a lot of people collect platinum. Platinum is just way too expensive for most people to collect, and the bulk of platinum bullion purchases are for just that; the bullion aspect of it. While the price of these platinum coins is incredibly high right now, so is the popularity and widespread knowledge of them. After a while, when the current "rush" ends, the prices of these coins will level out and may not be nearly as high as many here seem to believe.
The true modern "rarities" are typically those that are part of a series collected by a large number of people (which platinum coins are not), and typically show their demand long after the minting has stopped. (See the 1999 Silver Proofs, or the 1995-W Silver Eagle. Again, both parts of series that your everyday Joe would typically collect and be able to afford. If you are a serious collector of platinum coins then you are wealthy and you are not your everyday Joe. That's the truth).
I think a good analogy for these platinum coins is the popularity of wines. When the movie 'Sideways' came out, suddenly there was a MASSIVE popularity of wine and wine-related items. As a result, the prices of vintage wines went VERY high as more people knew about them and suddenly everybody wanted to have a "good wine". In addition, you also had people coming along and suddenly acting as though they were experts on the subject and wouldn't shut up about it. Everywhere you looked, there was someone mentioning wine or how they can pick out a good wine, etc. etc. Soon after the movie left theaters, however, things began to return to normal as the "wine scene" left the public spotlight. It's still not the same as it was before Sideways came out, but it's a lot closer to normal than it was. I think these platinum coins are going to see the same fate. >>
I could not agree more with what was written above.
It's my belief that large numbers of platinum collectors are right here, speculators, on these boards. If you can make your profits now then make your profits now. Don't hold out for 2 or 3 years or more hoping for even more profit. I think the popularity of these coins will settle back down to where they have been all along.
I saw! If he had only staggered the auction by 5 minutes instead of allowing them to go off at the exact SAME time, he would have clear 3K on at least one!
In any case, 100% X (2) in a few weeks, is pretty damn good!
Comments
<< <i>I'm listing a PF70 2005 W quarter ouncer on ebay today.... starting at twenty five bucks >>
-Your SPAM is stale! You've been trying to sell that coin for weeks.
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm listing a PF70 2005 W quarter ouncer on ebay today.... starting at twenty five bucks >>
-Your SPAM is stale! You've been trying to sell that coin for weeks. >>
I just happen to agree with Laura on this one. You can call it spam all you want
Ok, I'll bite...which series please? Thanks.
FloridaBill
Hey, save da fees, we don't want no stink'n Proof, man!
More than half of bullion is BULL
Camelot
<< <i>
Ok, I'll bite...which series please? Thanks.
FloridaBill >>
The matte proofs from early in the last century?
Here are some of the lower pops:
1997 $10 = 3 (11/06 teletrade $7000)
1999 $10 = 3
2000 $10 = 1
1997 $25 = ZERO
1999 $25 = 2 (6/06 teletrade $6000)
2000 $25 = 5 (12/06 teletrade $3900)
2001 $25 = 4
1997 $50 = 3
1998 $50 = 1
1999 $50 = 1
2000 $50 = ZERO
2001 $50 = 1
2002 $50 = 6
1997 $100 = 1 (8/06 teltrade $12,000)
1998 $100 = 1
1999 $100 = ZERO
2000 $100 = ZERO
2001 $100 = ZERO
2002 $100 = 1
<< <i>PCGS MS70 Plats - imo, this is where the collecting is interesting. >>
I agree. A very interesting series gets most challenging at this level. If one cares to delve into this level of collecting, it is definately where much of the fun and excitement can be found.
ps. It is too bad you pulled your post Bear. It was RIGHT ON!
people who can't or won't understand why someone would want these trinkets.
you should only collect or buy what they think is worthy.
how's the view from atop the high horse?
forgetting the golden rule..... it's all about the PROFIT. someone somewhere is making PROFIT.
it doesn't matter how much. they are making PROFIT. and that makes people happy.
and why is their PROFIT to be made?
because collectors want them.
they are COINS. first year issue to boot.
hi, i'm tom.
i do not doctor coins like some who post in here.
I know you are not dumb, so perhaps that's why I missed 'your point'.
The fact that they each are made with different type die, process and at different times, doesn't that matter anymore?
Why is it in the PCGS book MS and Proof's are in different sections with unique #'s, if they are one in the same? Maybe we shouldn't let facts get in the way of finding that answer?
Are you suggesting that all Proofs/Uncs from ANY series should not be differentiated ?
I was lambasted a few weeks ago in this Forum for even trying to suggest your very 'point'. My excuse was I was new and I had never seen a Plat W-Unc to a Plat W-Poof, (which I also own).
Last week I saw a big difference in the two series, side by side.
However, to be impartial on detecting a difference between the two, I decided to attempt the Laura Test , a gal whom I think is pretty sharp. (My 3-year old daughter)
I pulled her away from her busy schedule of playing with her vast collection of "Littlest Pets" and placed the two coins side by side ( $50 W-Proof against the $50 W-Unc.).
I then asked her what was "the shinier looking" coin. Low and behold she picked out the 'newer' looking one (Proof), every time.
Why would you make such a statement like the one above?
Now, lets look at your title to this post. Do you have any data to support the contention that there is growing interest in this series?
Lets see, what might be an indicator of growing popularity? How about the mintage numbers.
You posted the mintage figures for the MS coins. What did that show? The lowest mintage in the series. But if there is growing popularity in the series, why didn't the mint receive more orders? In other words, wasn't the mintage low because demand was low because there are few collectors who wanted these coins?
Now it also appears from other posts on this forum, including one that counted the number of 1 oz pieces purchased, that a substantial percentage of the mintage went to speculators. So if the present collector base for MS specimens already purchased theirs from the Mint, perhaps the mintage figures really show that the number of coins extant is high relative to the number of collectors.
Now, maybe the collector base with grow. Ok. I'll accept that premise. But new collectors will have a choice between the MS and the proof pieces. So the proof population needs to be taken into account in assessing the rarity of the 2006-W coins.
Why do you have a problem with accepting that concept?
CG
CG - Without question, IMHO, the collector base for Proof Plat is far more advanced and matured than it is for MS coins. For example, while the lowest MS Platinum mintage (pre-2006) is the 2005 $100 MS Plat at around 6,300 mintage, after a year, the coin enjoys very little in the way of a "premium". Interestingly, the 2005 $100 PROOF sports nearly the identical (low) mintage as the 2005 MS $100 counterpart, but, the Proof coin is worth roughly a 50%-100% premium already, while the MS coin does not enjoy such a premium. And, quite frankly, I believe that MS mintages over 5,000 in the Plat series would have a hard time maintaining a meaningful premium right now due to the less than mature collector base. On the other hand, a Proof Plat mintage of roughly 5,000 coins (like the 2004 $50 and $25 coins) already has developed a 300%-500% premium.
So, did the US Mint simply speed up the process for collectors to be introduced to the world of MS Platinum collecting by creating a number of 2,500 - 3,750 mintage coins all at once? At the moment, it sure looks that way. Perhaps the bigger question becomes whether the Mint has to continue to offer such low mintage alternatives to keep collectors perpetually interested in the series. For example, in 2007, would collectors want to collect the MS versions of the coins if the Mint sold 6,000-10,000 units per denomination? In other words, could these "w" MS coins actually hurt the Mint's future sales for years to come? Stay tuned!
Wondercoin
There is much speculation and hoarding on mintage anticipation.
They are not rare. They are not scarce. Do not fall into the trap of comparing mintages of platinum bullion to classic US coins. Compare SURVIVAL of the classic US coins and it is easy to see the platinum is common. If a mintage comes in at under 500, then you would have a scarce issue.
New issues are always have strong demand, speculation, and hoarding. The 1984 Olympic $10 P nd D Mints sold for $1000 shortly after issue, then slowly drifted down to $250 when the hoards were dispersed and the novelty wore off.
I would like to buy more of the platinum issues, but not for investment. Or perhaps the price of platinum will never fall?
In August, the Mint released three items with a tremendous profit potential. Additionally, two of the three had unique "reverse proof" coins that many, including myself, wanted to own. I believe that many of the deep-pocketed folks who would normally have bought platinum when it came on sale in September/October already had thousands of liquidity tied up in 20th Anniversary sets (Gold, Silver, and Two-Coin) and consequently, they did not buy. The lack of orders in the first month or two caused the Mint to project less demand than usual, and therefore to make fewer coins than usual.
Most speculators' (and that's what I call us--and I do include myself in there) liquidity was returned in December as people received and sold their 20th Anniversary Sets, giving them enough cash/credit to finally purchase platinum. I believe that a) as people come to realize what a rarity the platinum coins are and b) as more peoples' liquidity is restored after Christmas, we'll see these coins begin a steady rise.
So, did the US Mint simply speed up the process for collectors to be introduced to the world of MS Platinum collecting by creating a number of 2,500 - 3,750 mintage coins all at once? At the moment, it sure looks that way. Perhaps the bigger question becomes whether the Mint has to continue to offer such low mintage alternatives to keep collectors perpetually interested in the series. For example, in 2007, would collectors want to collect the MS versions of the coins if the Mint sold 6,000-10,000 units per denomination? In other words, could these "w" MS coins actually hurt the Mint's future sales for years to come? Stay tuned!
Wondercoin "
Interesting concepts.
Eric
Excellent questions.....I'll be back to you when the kids are in bed.
not part of a series. This is a silly example and not worthy of you.
Camelot
There was one of these on ebay sometime within the past year. Had great pictures of it being hauled off of the Brinks truck. The reserve wasn't met, the bid was somewhere over $500,000...
Is there a way to search ebay for completed listings going back over a year?
<< <i>Only 15 of these were issued - they should be considered Classic Rarities! >>
Perhaps "Classical Rarities" is best.
<< <i>Only 15 of these were issued - they should be considered Classic Rarities! 1000 ounce coin >>
This is a PDF file.
The coin is the Austrian Philharmonic issue gold coin.
There are hundreds of darkside coins with mintages under 1000 that can be picked up quite cheaply. Indeed,
if you look at many of the modern proofs you'll see mintages of around 250 that sell for substantially less than
the business strikes with mintages in the multi-million. You might say that this is because there is more demand
for the business strike but there's more to it; the business strike is often tougher.
Numismatics is like a box of chocolates.
<< <i><<Only 15 of these were issued - they should be considered Classic Rarities! 1000 ounce coin >>
There was one of these on ebay sometime within the past year. Had great pictures of it being hauled off of the Brinks truck. The reserve wasn't met, the bid was somewhere over $500,000...
Is there a way to search ebay for completed listings going back over a year? >>
I saw that listing - it was cool.
TDN, Now you are being sarcastic. It is a darkside coin, immensly expensive
not part of a series. This is a silly example and not worthy of you.
Moi?
It's legal tender - 100,000 euros. It's a unique type. I wonder if it's slabbable...
Yes, without a doubt.
You stated that Proof Sales will cut into MS Plat Value.
I say not for the Year 2006 W-Unc. Nothing will be lower in Mintage against these 2006 Plats for a long time.
My contention in the first post of this thread was that the inaugural "W"-Unc series cut into "No-W" Dealer Bullion Sales. These dealers, in-turn sell to the public. I never mentioned any effect from the Proofs.
But now that you did, here is some neat data that reinforces my contention of a huge Mint production miss-calculation, based on what THEY perceived was going to happen, not what was going actually going on in the market. :
In the last 5 years, Platinum has moved from $480 to almost $1,350 an oz. and now hovers near $1,120 (per Kitco)
Sales Figures for Proofs ONLY for 5 years, shown below: (2006 sales are as of 12/18/06 - NN)
Year Product Option Mintage Product Limit Total Unit Price
2006 Platinum One Ounce 14,000 4,000 3,245 $1,345.00
2006 Platinum One-Half Ounce 13,000 3,000 1,659 $735.00
2006 Platinum One-Quarter Ounce 15,000 5,000 1,387 $435.00
2006 Platinum One-Tenth Ounce 20,000 10,000 3,505 $220.00
2006 Platinum Four Coin Set N/A 10,000 5,035 $2,750.00
2005 Platinum One Ounce 14,000 4,000 1,663 $1,345.00
2005 Platinum One-Half Ounce 13,000 3,000 846 $735.00
2005 Platinum One-Quarter Ounce 15,000 5,000 932 $410.00
2005 Platinum One-Tenth Ounce 20,000 10,000 2,583 $210.00
2005 Platinum Four Coin Set N/A 10,000 3,237 $2,495.00
2004 Platinum One Ounce 14,000 4,000 2,017 $1,345.00
2004 Platinum One-Half Ounce 13,000 3,000 1,073 $735.00
2004 Platinum One-Quarter Ounce 15,000 5,000 1,203 $410.00
2004 Platinum One-Tenth Ounce 20,000 10,000 3,171 $210.00
2004 Platinum Four Coin Set N/A 10,000 3,990 $2,495.00
2003 Platinum One Ounce 14,000 4,000 2,950 $1,073.00
2003 Platinum One-Half Ounce 13,000 3,000 1,835 $587.00
2003 Platinum One-Quarter Ounce 15,000 5,000 1,748 $329.00
2003 Platinum One-Tenth Ounce 20,000 10,000 4,238 $170.00
2003 Platinum Four Coin Set N/A 10,000 5,296 $1,995.00
2002 Platinum One Ounce 14,000 4,000 3,072 $740.00
2002 Platinum One-Half Ounce 13,000 3,000 2,010 $405.00
2002 Platinum One-Quarter Ounce 15,000 5,000 2,520 $227.00
2002 Platinum One-Tenth Ounce 20,000 10,000 5,603 $118.00
2002 Platinum Four Coin Set N/A 10,000 6,762 $1,375.00
2001 Platinum One Ounce 14,000 4,000 2,625 $740.00
2001 Platinum One-Half Ounce 13,000 3,000 1,910 $405.00
2001 Platinum One-Quarter Ounce 15,000 5,000 2,503 $227.00
2001 Platinum One-Tenth Ounce 25,000 15,000 5,830 $118.00
2001 Platinum Four Coin Set N/A 10,000 6,344 $1,375.00
Sales Figures for Proofs ONLY for 10 years, shown below: (2006 sales are as of 12/18/06 - NN)
Year Product Option Units Sold Price
2006 Platinum Four Coin Set 5,035 $2,750.00
2005 Platinum Four Coin Set 3,237 $2,495.00
2004 Platinum Four Coin Set 3,990 $2,495.00
2003 Platinum Four Coin Set 5,296 $1,995.00
2002 Platinum Four Coin Set 6,762 $1,375.00
2001 Platinum Four Coin Set 6,344 $1,375.00
2000 Platinum Four Coin Set 8,535 $1,375.00
1999 Platinum Four Coin Set 8,578 $1,350.00
1998 Platinum Four Coin Set 9,926 $1,350.00
1997 Platinum Four Coin Set 7,971 $1,350.00
Year Product Option Units Sold Price
2006 1 oz. Platinum 8,280 $2,750.00
2005 1 oz. Platinum 4,900 $2,495.00
2004 1 oz. Platinum 6,007 $2,495.00
2003 1 oz. Platinum 8,246 $1,995.00
2002 1 oz. Platinum 9,834 $1,375.00
2001 1 oz. Platinum 8,969 $1,375.00
2000 1 oz. Platinum 12,453 $1,375.00
1999 1 oz. Platinum 12,363 $1,350.00
1998 1 oz. Platinum 14,912 $1,350.00
1997 1 oz. Platinum 15,886 $1,350.00
Graph the Data on your own or see attachment, but what we CLEARLY SEE IS A BOTTOM AT THE END OF 2005 AND REVERSAL for AN INCREASE IN PROOF SALES (about 40% for the number of Proof sets sold, almost a 100% increase in the number of 1.oz Proof coins from the previous year) all when the price of Platinum has moved almost 15% in the last year, not counting any price spike.
If you go to the Unc Sales page for Plats SOLD TO DEALERS, you will see a continued sales reduction of Dealer purchases.
http://www.usmint.gov//mint_programs/american_eagles/index.cfm?action=MintageTotals#2005
I can’t help but think that dealers were mad at the Mint in 2004-2005 and 2006 when it was rumored, then announced, and then it occurred of these sales of Unc by the Mint were made to the public. The Mint killed it’s best customer by cutting out the middlemen, and then came up short on supplying the Unc market by dropping the ball on the production and leaving us with a great wind-fall.
Summation:
In the real-world, Platinum price sky-rockets, and PROOF sales explode!
The Mint creates a real shortage of Unc’s by cutting back on Mintage of an inaugural issue of the W-Unc’s. Perhaps they wanted to focus on the Proof Business?
All in all, I think I have made my point.
BTW, here is some additional info that shows how the public is just catching on. Look at the sales price of each Proof unit price relative to the raw price of Platinum. For example in 2001, raw was at $490 an ounce, while the 1 oz. Proof sold for $1,375. In 2006, raw peaked near $1,350 and you could grab a 1 oz. Proof for $1,500. This accounts for the almost doubling of sales from 2005 to 2006. There is a huge amount of data that can be mined out here to study the Mintages against supply and demand for the entire series.
Pricing vs, Raw: Sales after 1997 were greatly affected by the spread between the Mint Price and the raw Platinum price. It was huge! They were pigs! This exorbitant price disparity of the early years to me is the #1 reason it took the Plat coins so long to catch on with the Public. If the mint keeps this price gap tight like it is now, sales will continue to explode.
Look at the sales explosion the first year. Then the public realized they were getting ripped-off on the price spread so they backed off and started to avoid it. When the mint finally let the price of raw Platinum catch up to the price of the Proof, weary customers returned. If the Mint is smart, they will act more like Walmart with this series rather than like Nieman Marcus and keep it affordable relative to the raw. Then everyone will be happy. (especially the early year collectors ;>
Here are some of the lower pops:
1997 $10 = 3 (11/06 teletrade $7000)
1999 $10 = 3
2000 $10 = 1
1997 $25 = ZERO
1999 $25 = 2 (6/06 teletrade $6000)
2000 $25 = 5 (12/06 teletrade $3900)
2001 $25 = 4
1997 $50 = 3
1998 $50 = 1
1999 $50 = 1
2000 $50 = ZERO
2001 $50 = 1
2002 $50 = 6
1997 $100 = 1 (8/06 teltrade $12,000)
1998 $100 = 1
1999 $100 = ZERO
2000 $100 = ZERO
2001 $100 = ZERO
2002 $100 = 1
>>
Modern Platinum Commemorative 1999 Statue of Liberty $25 PCGS 70
1) I think that most of the general collecting world does not even know about the w-unc plats yet. I don't recall seeing any publicity materials (mailings, emails, etc) about the w-unc plats. The only place they are getting attention is on the boards, and recent issues of NN, CW, etc. I have the great suspicion that there are only a few of us that are in on what can only be described as the newest and best kept secret in modern collecting.
2) Despite my comments in #1 above, the plat are starting to attract some attention. It just barely started in early 2005 when the low mintages of the 2004 proof series became news. Now, we have the secret w-uncs that blow the 2004 numbers out of the water. These two events will draw a great deal of attention to the series over the next few years.
3) The mint will be producing a 10th Anniv plat set that will include a reverse proof coin that will be heavily promoted, sell out quickly, and attract even more attention to the series. The 20th Anniv silver reverse proofs come in at about 1/3 of the "standard" mintage of silver proof eagles. The 20th Anniv gold reverse proofs come in at about 1/3 to 1/2 of the "standard" mintage of gold proof eagles. Using this as a guide, I would expect to see no more than 2,500 to 3,000 platinum 10th Anniv sets next year. I would also hope that the mint limits orders of these to 2 or 3 per address.
Thus, for platinum collectors, we have significant, interest-generating events in 2004, 2006, and 2007 for a series that has been running for 10 years. The secret will be out for sure by the end of next year!
I am seriously considering doing the same thing that David said above - selling off the rest of my collection (of moderns) to focus on the platinums. I have been working on the 1/2oz proofs by rarity and so far I have the 2001, 2003-2006 and now the 2006-wunc 1/2. I'm thinking that it would be prudent to fill in all of my missing 1/2oz proofs before the end of next year...
Eric
<< <i>""The fact is from my little CoinBoy understanding of the basics of coin collecting;, I read that there are three factors that decide how Valuable the coin is relative to the Market and the value all other coin(s) competing against it:
1.) Rarity - number of pieces and most important, the number that survive (*check* - see list above)
2.) Condition/Grade - level of preservation... (*check* - no 'secret sauce' or 'scrubbing bubbles' needed to get a *good* grade for this series)
3.) Popularity - (*check*) When I take the three basics and really focus on this third basic, i.e. Popularity, can anyone tell me the last time a modern sold-out by the Mint and that was priced over $2,500 and nearly doubling within a week of a close out? Is there a comp out there we can measure this against? The 2006 American Eagle 20th Anniversary Gold 3 Coin Set? with 10K RP? ok, anything else? Some additional *Popularity Growth Factors* that are just exploding right now for the Moderns and the Plats ""
. >>
What series is this?
<< <i>""
Did you know there is a series of coins which has a total mintage of only about 17,000 coins? This mintage spans a total of 8 years. The total number of surviving coins graded GEM or higher is only about 10% of the original mintage. And this particular series is arguably the most widely collected series in numismatics. And, the vast majority of these coins can be purchased for less than the price of 1oz of platinum.
This series meets all 3 or your criteria, yet appears to have not reached its potential. IMHO, the Plats are promotion "coins" minted for investors, not collectors. Please dont think I am "bashing" them, as I am not. I think they are a great opportunity to make a few bucks. I will. And then I will reinvest that new found money into a truely scarce series. >>
What series is this?
Perhaps we can get Mel Gibson interested in directing?
Camelot
<< <i>
<< <i>""
Did you know there is a series of coins which has a total mintage of only about 17,000 coins? This mintage spans a total of 8 years. The total number of surviving coins graded GEM or higher is only about 10% of the original mintage. And this particular series is arguably the most widely collected series in numismatics. And, the vast majority of these coins can be purchased for less than the price of 1oz of platinum.
This series meets all 3 or your criteria, yet appears to have not reached its potential. IMHO, the Plats are promotion "coins" minted for investors, not collectors. Please dont think I am "bashing" them, as I am not. I think they are a great opportunity to make a few bucks. I will. And then I will reinvest that new found money into a truely scarce series. >>
What series is this? >>
If I were going to guess it's the Franklin proofs from 1950 to 1963. These coins are within everyones price range but they are strickly collectors value at this point since they cost a few bucks from the mint and have doubled many times now. Unlike the 1oz Plats that if purchased from the mint are close to the metal value at this point. If you get just under $2800 for one on the secondary market it seems like a lot but that's only double and Platinum in a high value metal unlike silver. I collect this series too.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>""
Did you know there is a series of coins which has a total mintage of only about 17,000 coins? This mintage spans a total of 8 years. The total number of surviving coins graded GEM or higher is only about 10% of the original mintage. And this particular series is arguably the most widely collected series in numismatics. And, the vast majority of these coins can be purchased for less than the price of 1oz of platinum.
This series meets all 3 or your criteria, yet appears to have not reached its potential. IMHO, the Plats are promotion "coins" minted for investors, not collectors. Please dont think I am "bashing" them, as I am not. I think they are a great opportunity to make a few bucks. I will. And then I will reinvest that new found money into a truely scarce series. >>
What series is this? >>
If I were going to guess it's the Franklin proofs from 1950 to 1963. These coins are within everyones price range but they are strickly collectors value at this point since they cost a few bucks from the mint and have doubled many times now. Unlike the 1oz Plats that if purchased from the mint are close to the metal value at this point. If you get just under $2800 for one on the secondary market it seems like a lot but that's only double and Platinum in a high value metal unlike silver. I collect this series too. >>
Nope
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>A think a lot of the "backlash" against the platinum coins is due to the fact that there is a new thread on the platinum coins every few minutes or so. I myself believe that this "popularity" is short term and that the demand for these coins will fade away because 1): People these days have very short attention spans and what's "popular" now may not be in a few short moments, and 2): Not a lot of people collect platinum. Platinum is just way too expensive for most people to collect, and the bulk of platinum bullion purchases are for just that; the bullion aspect of it. While the price of these platinum coins is incredibly high right now, so is the popularity and widespread knowledge of them. After a while, when the current "rush" ends, the prices of these coins will level out and may not be nearly as high as many here seem to believe.
The true modern "rarities" are typically those that are part of a series collected by a large number of people (which platinum coins are not), and typically show their demand long after the minting has stopped. (See the 1999 Silver Proofs, or the 1995-W Silver Eagle. Again, both parts of series that your everyday Joe would typically collect and be able to afford. If you are a serious collector of platinum coins then you are wealthy and you are not your everyday Joe. That's the truth).
I think a good analogy for these platinum coins is the popularity of wines. When the movie 'Sideways' came out, suddenly there was a MASSIVE popularity of wine and wine-related items. As a result, the prices of vintage wines went VERY high as more people knew about them and suddenly everybody wanted to have a "good wine". In addition, you also had people coming along and suddenly acting as though they were experts on the subject and wouldn't shut up about it. Everywhere you looked, there was someone mentioning wine or how they can pick out a good wine, etc. etc. Soon after the movie left theaters, however, things began to return to normal as the "wine scene" left the public spotlight. It's still not the same as it was before Sideways came out, but it's a lot closer to normal than it was. I think these platinum coins are going to see the same fate. >>
I could not agree more with what was written above.
It's my belief that large numbers of platinum collectors are right here, speculators, on these boards. If you can make your profits now then make your profits now. Don't hold out for 2 or 3 years or more hoping for even more profit. I think the popularity of these coins will settle back down to where they have been all along.
and another
In any case, 100% X (2) in a few weeks, is pretty damn good!