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Poll: Will coin prices go up or down in 2007?

In particular, threads about the upcoming FUN auction have sparked a spirited debate on the future of coin prices.

Share your opinion, educated or otherwise here. Use the PCGS 3000 as an indicator for the overall market. However, if you specialize in one series, thoughts on that series are welcome as well.

/edit to update title

Comments

  • Aegis3Aegis3 Posts: 2,912 ✭✭✭
    Prices will go to wherever prices will go to. Put me in the "who cares" group. I'm a collector, and will continue to do so no matter where prices are.

    As to specific series, (modern) errors may still be able to rise some more, but eventually they will move down to more saner levels. They will certainly be more expensive then they were 10-15 years ago, but I don't see how $1,200 for 11c pieces can be sustainable, for example. Circulated half cents will continue a slow, steady rise, as these are collector coins that are not affected by "the market." Assay Commission medals will still be thinly traded enough that one cannot say how their prices trend. This will continue until whenever the Pittman collection sells, which hopefully will be at least two years after I get a permanent job so that I can afford plenty from it. Such an auction will likely raise prices at least 50% compared to where they apparently are now, and set a new baseline.
    --

    Ed. S.

    (EJS)
  • ccexccex Posts: 1,188 ✭✭✭
    Coins that I can't afford will continue to increase in price. Those that I can afford will decrease slightly.
    "Never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity" - Hanlon's Razor
  • jharjhar Posts: 1,126


    << <i>Will coin prices go up or down in 2007? >>


    Yes

    :-D
    J'har
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold coins will be up 10-20% or more. Hard to get cream of the crop coins will continue to rise. Generic or specifically off-quality stuff of average material will be flat to declining. There's just not enough money to sop up all the junk on the market. 2 tiered market rambles on in a stagflation type environment.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • So far a vast majority expect prices to rise. That is not a surprise considering the PCGS 3000 has trended higher for five years now. People are conditioned to expect the trend to continue. What is surprising is the 12% that expect prices to go up 20% or more. That hasn't happened in a long time.

    About 15% expect a price decline, and almost all of them expect it to be a modest pullback of under 10%.

    Those looking for a crash or major top, the sentiment at those times is usually skewed much more bullish, as probably would the poll choices. A 50% price jump for 2007 would not be out of the question and 20% would be almost a minimum expectation for the majority.

    The small sample size means, that the poll doesn't mean all that much. However, like I said, sentiment is a good indicator for tops and bottoms. I know my markets (see my blog signature) and markets are similar, no matter what is being traded.
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    I believe that selective portions of the market will hold up in 2007,

    but for the bulk of collectable coins, I see a downward bias. How severe

    will depend on economic factors unrelated to coins. The economy has been rigged

    by deceptive economic numbers, a Fed that raises interest rates and the floods the

    market with fresh money, uncontroled defecits and a truly horrendous balance of payments.

    Add the fact that for most working Americans, wages have been stagnant for some time. All

    of these economic issues, plus a never ending war, draining resources and the need to rebuild, refit

    and enlarge the standing army and marine corp, present a convergence of very negetive factors that

    may have a strong negetive effect on the coin industry. Be careful out there folks and try not to get

    over extended financially. Any seeming increase in coin values, are due to the creep of hidden inflation factors.
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage
  • ziggy29ziggy29 Posts: 18,668 ✭✭✭
    I suspect the currently bifurcated market to continue. The money will still be out there, but it will continue to be far more quality conscious; not just "any coin for the grade" will do.

    I expect the "average" stuff for the grade (except for rare dates and the early type through 1807) to continue to drift sideways or down somewhat, and I expect the best quality -- original surfaces, superb eye appeal -- to continue making records throughout the year. As for pre-1808 coins, I think they will rise in value again across the board because there's so much demand for it -- though of course, the best quality in that group will outperform, too.

    We're seeing a market where increasingly, the nicest coins at a lower grade level will sell for more than average coins a grade higher. Unless the entire market craters, I don't see that changing any time soon.
  • ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭
    I think like most years some of the series that have really been stong will cool while other lagging will pick up steam. I'm putting together a Bust half set in the VF/XF range and those have gone up and I wish they'd drop but they are still very cheap for the orginial toned coins and hard to find so I'm not holding my breath.
  • BearBear Posts: 18,953 ✭✭✭
    I think that the Caped Bust coinage is gaining in popularity

    and will do well next year, particularly the Halves in AU-58 PCGS.

    These are still coins of great beauty and still at a reasonable price.
    There once was a place called
    Camelotimage

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