What scenerio would prevent the 2006 Platinum coins from reaching everyone's projections?

RedneckHB

Is there some event that would keep these coins from rising to everyone's expectations? A dramatic drop in metals prices? No demand? The mint producing a lower mintage coin next year? Or perhaps more W-mint marks?

Just curious as I believe that before an investment is made all possibilities should be explored.

TwoSides2aCoin

There are always events that could cause the market to tumble or at least become stagnant. But for some reason, inflation and recession, good times and bad just don't seem to deter the passion of the coin collector.

2manycoins2fewfunds

Large asteroid smashing into earth.

mrpaseo

The first thing that popped into my head is if the mint decided to re-release due to the high demand.... I think that would put a damper on things.

And maybe an uprising...lol.

Ray

Lionel

<< <i>Large asteroid smashing into earth. >>




You ment a large asteroid made of platinum?

Elysium

<< <i>Is there some event that would keep these coins from rising to everyone's expectations? A dramatic drop in metals prices? No demand? The mint producing a lower mintage coin next year? Or perhaps more W-mint marks?

Just curious as I believe that before an investment is made all possibilities should be explored. >>



1) One thing I see is if there is a subsequent year with even lower mintage. E.g. 2008 plat coins with equal or lower mintages.

Could happen. Say 2007 the mint floods the market with tons of products. 2008 everyone is burnt out and the buyers dry up.

2) If the US Mint becomes like the Royal Canadian Mint and makes tons of limited mintage coins. You see tons of limited mintage coins from the canandian mint, but no big spike in prices. Low mintage become commonplace and people won't pay premiums just because of low mintages.

GRANTED, both are unlikely to happen. Least not in 2007.

fastrudy

Lionel! FYI,
Asteroids have a high assay amount of precious metals. So much gold is in some asteroids that mining companies on Earth have toyed with the idea of mining them in space and sending the ore back to Earth!
Gold assay of an asteroid shows a higher gold content than any existing mine on Earth! Scientific American did an article on it and showed that a succesful mining operation would seriously effect the gold market!

RichieURich

I wouldn't worry about asteroids. Kids have been playing that game for years and can shoot them right out of the sky.

Only thing I would worry about is lack of demand. There are many fewer collectors of platinum coins than gold coins. Hope for the forum members who bought these that this lack of demand doesn't happen.

itsnotjustme

The risks I have ID's are listed below. Before each is a likelyhood of occurence and an impact if it does occur.

L ML Significant drop in platinum price (say below $750)
VL H Major economic hardship in the US
VL H Fraud at the mint (unauthorized production, bogus sales/production data, platinum plated base metal)
VL MH Lower Mintage Future Sets

VL = Very Low
L = Low
M = Medium
MH = Medium High
H = High

Given these I think the biggest risk is the platinum price. I will take my chances. Even that could be only temporary, and not exceeed the numismatic premium... just a smaller gain.

itsnotjustme

We have 191 board members logged on now. If we all bought 10 that would be 80% of the 1 ounce mintage!

RedneckHB

<< <i>We have 191 board members logged on now. If we all bought 10 that would be 80% of the 1 ounce mintage! >>



But who would we sell to?

kimon1230

<< <i>

<< <i>We have 191 board members logged on now. If we all bought 10 that would be 80% of the 1 ounce mintage! >>



But who would we sell to? >>


The lurkers

GAT

The intrinsic value of these coins plays a minor role IMO. The real value is their rarity.

ScarsdaleCoin

missing the biggest reason of all....there is no real interest in these as coins....the only interest is that you all think there is so much money to be made.....before you all come down on me....did you buy the set because you love it and want to keep it or because you read on the boards how much money you can make on it? hmmmmmm

kimon1230

<< <i>missing the biggest reason of all....there is no real interest in these as coins....the only interest is that you all think there is so much money to be made.....before you all come down on me....did you buy the set because you love it and want to keep it or because you read on the boards how much money you can make on it? hmmmmmm >>


originally, to make a quick buck.
but, as I get used to seeing my outstanding balance so high on my credit card, I might just keep my one coin and start collecting the 1oz unc. W

Now, if someone offers me $5K for a coin I just paid $1.3K for, I'll take it.

MrEureka

missing the biggest reason of all....there is no real interest in these as coins....the only interest is that you all think there is so much money to be made

Careful, Jon! It's not too far down the steep and slippery slope before we crash into Morgan Dollars and Trimes!

fastrudy

Jon,
Am I mistaken? weren't you selling them on the BST forum? Even if I am mistaken and it was not you, dealers can seek profit in coins, but collectors can't? My head is exploding with the hypocrisy.

mrmom

missing the biggest reason of all....there is no real interest in these as coins....

<< <i>Text >>



Please explain to me why 2004 proof set is going for around 7,8 grand and 2005 proof set is over $4000.


david

GAT

Only dealers are entitled to make money. collectors should only lose money on transactions. What a joke! This sounds like Miss Laura.

Usual typos to correct.

dragon

I'd say the 2 biggest risks would be a sharp drop in precious metals prices overall, or a significant cool off in the coin market in general.

Lionel

Wow. That's interesting. About the asteroids and gold I mean.

13PacesEast

<< <i>missing the biggest reason of all....there is no real interest in these as coins....the only interest is that you all think there is so much money to be made.....before you all come down on me....did you buy the set because you love it and want to keep it or because you read on the boards how much money you can make on it? hmmmmmm >>




didn't make as much sense on paper as it did in your head?

now the people are taking you to task.


funny.

bluespaceant

At the very worst you could spend the coins at face value. The 4 coin set has $185 in face value. That may be just enough to fill up the gas tank someday.

TheRaven

I think the fact that Platinum coins are not all that popular is what will cause a ceiling to be hit with these coins.....

As far as a drop, it depends on what these coins are bringing in the secondary market first.....

GAT

Then Raven, how do you explain the prices of 2004 & 2005 proof sets?

kiyote

Will the one oz platinum coin ever be worth as much as the tenth anniversary silver eagle? I can't see that happening...

TheRaven

I think enough of the 2004 & 2005 proof sets are squirrel away in collections that the supply of the proof coins is rather tight, where as judging by this board these W Unc coins appear to have been heavily purchased on speculation.....

Plus I think that more collectors want the proofs for there collection of proof coins.....

I answered the question is what I did, my feeling is that these coins will be at or near the 2004 proof coins in a year or two (after I get my 1/10 oz one for my collection hopefully).....

I like the platinum coins and missed out on getting the 1/10 from the mint and that stinks, and the cash flow don't let me get the bigger coins or I would have gotten some of them, since I think they are long term winners.....

mrmom

<< <i>Will the one oz platinum coin ever be worth as much as the tenth anniversary silver eagle? I can't see that happening... >>



I think it is very possible. 2004 1 oz is getting there and yet its mintage is little over 6000. The mintage for 2006-w is maybe 4000 or less.
Look at morgans, is 1892s, or 1893s any different than say 1885o or 1898o or 1881s or any other common dates? It is all numbers game. It doesn't matter how pretty or ugly it is, if it is rare, then money is there I think.

slickpick

Technically they are not part of a series. They could be a one year misadventure. Now if they were the Proofs with this low of a mintage......

mrmom

<< <i>Technically they are not part of a series. They could be a one year misadventure. Now if they were the Proofs with this low of a mintage...... >>



Technically yes, but this year's w-mint has same reverse as proof version whereas reg. bullion has same reverse since its inception. '
Someone called it the extention of proof series.

GAT

Raven. maybe you missed it but ericj96 left a phone number in a thread offering to help you on that 1/10 oz'er.

LincolnCentMan

Thermo-nuclear war such that fewer than 10,000 people survive... world wide.

Mint annouces that they will produce more examples that will be availible until the middle of next year.

Supply exceeds demand. ...possible, but not probable.

David

CalGold

1. Collector base of date set builders remains small

2. Collectors described in 1 above already bought theirs from the mint and don't need to buy yours in the secondary market

3. Musical chairs game of buying and selling among speculators based on the "key date" story winds down.

CG

fastrudy

Actually, they are part on the "Branches of the government" series. 2006 reverse is the legislative branch. 2007 & 2008 will have the executive & judicial branch on the reverse. It is written in law.

ttown

I think there's a bigger base on the Plats than most people realize. I've been buying these since 2002 when it was totally dead but after the 04's hit the prices have taken an upturn that can't be accounted for just the metal price rising. Theres not too many modern coins that have this low of mintage and certainly not a permenant running series that changes every year.

The base is building, it kind of reminds me of my collecting Frankins in the late 70's early 80's you could cherry pick til your heart was content.

Jdurg

<< <i>Will the one oz platinum coin ever be worth as much as the tenth anniversary silver eagle? I can't see that happening... >>



I agree. With the silver eagle series, Joe Shmoe down the street can afford to pay the cost of the proof and bullion versions of the coins every year. Silver is not exceedingly expensive and your average, run of the mill factory worker can afford to have a collection of them. As a result, you have a LOT more collectors of silver eagles than you do gold and platinum eagles.

Since there is an IMMENSELY larger number of Ag collectors than there are Pt collectors, the 1995-W coin is more attractive to people than any platinum coin ever will be. Frankly, you need to be doing pretty damned good financially if you can afford to just toss out $1,300 or more ever year on platinum coins and not have it impact your day to day life. This is why the demand for the 1995-W Silver Eagle is so high, and also the reason why the cost of it is so high. The platinum coins will never reach that level.

asin

if oil and gas prices drop say 40% all bullion prices will be linked.

COINB0Y

Look, if the US Mint made a 2006 Series American Eagle W-Unc in Poop with the same mintage numbers, it would be selling just as high as they Plat versions now on Ebay.

I believe it is simply the numbers of coins they made, not the content.

fishcooker

I don't know what everyone's projections are, but if Platimum metal fell 30+% and then collector interest moved to the First Hags, these coins' value could decline.

Bear

Precious metal holdings are becoming more attractive to many folks.

I believe that the collector base is increasing and that within a 4-5 year time frame,

the Plats from 2006 will be in excess of 12,000 for the 4 coin set.

Bear

As for roids from space, that is always a concern.