What scenerio would prevent the 2006 Platinum coins from reaching everyone's projections?

Is there some event that would keep these coins from rising to everyone's expectations? A dramatic drop in metals prices? No demand? The mint producing a lower mintage coin next year? Or perhaps more W-mint marks?
Just curious as I believe that before an investment is made all possibilities should be explored.
Just curious as I believe that before an investment is made all possibilities should be explored.
Excuses are tools of the ignorant
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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Comments
And maybe an uprising...lol.
Ray
<< <i>Large asteroid smashing into earth. >>
You ment a large asteroid made of platinum?
<< <i>Is there some event that would keep these coins from rising to everyone's expectations? A dramatic drop in metals prices? No demand? The mint producing a lower mintage coin next year? Or perhaps more W-mint marks?
Just curious as I believe that before an investment is made all possibilities should be explored. >>
1) One thing I see is if there is a subsequent year with even lower mintage. E.g. 2008 plat coins with equal or lower mintages.
Could happen. Say 2007 the mint floods the market with tons of products. 2008 everyone is burnt out and the buyers dry up.
2) If the US Mint becomes like the Royal Canadian Mint and makes tons of limited mintage coins. You see tons of limited mintage coins from the canandian mint, but no big spike in prices. Low mintage become commonplace and people won't pay premiums just because of low mintages.
GRANTED, both are unlikely to happen. Least not in 2007.
Asteroids have a high assay amount of precious metals. So much gold is in some asteroids that mining companies on Earth have toyed with the idea of mining them in space and sending the ore back to Earth!
Gold assay of an asteroid shows a higher gold content than any existing mine on Earth! Scientific American did an article on it and showed that a succesful mining operation would seriously effect the gold market!
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
Only thing I would worry about is lack of demand. There are many fewer collectors of platinum coins than gold coins. Hope for the forum members who bought these that this lack of demand doesn't happen.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
L ML Significant drop in platinum price (say below $750)
VL H Major economic hardship in the US
VL H Fraud at the mint (unauthorized production, bogus sales/production data, platinum plated base metal)
VL MH Lower Mintage Future Sets
VL = Very Low
L = Low
M = Medium
MH = Medium High
H = High
Given these I think the biggest risk is the platinum price. I will take my chances. Even that could be only temporary, and not exceeed the numismatic premium... just a smaller gain.
<< <i>We have 191 board members logged on now. If we all bought 10 that would be 80% of the 1 ounce mintage! >>
But who would we sell to?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>We have 191 board members logged on now. If we all bought 10 that would be 80% of the 1 ounce mintage! >>
But who would we sell to? >>
The lurkers
<< <i>missing the biggest reason of all....there is no real interest in these as coins....the only interest is that you all think there is so much money to be made.....before you all come down on me....did you buy the set because you love it and want to keep it or because you read on the boards how much money you can make on it? hmmmmmm >>
originally, to make a quick buck.
but, as I get used to seeing my outstanding balance so high on my credit card, I might just keep my one coin and start collecting the 1oz unc. W
Now, if someone offers me $5K for a coin I just paid $1.3K for, I'll take it.
Careful, Jon! It's not too far down the steep and slippery slope before we crash into Morgan Dollars and Trimes!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Am I mistaken? weren't you selling them on the BST forum? Even if I am mistaken and it was not you, dealers can seek profit in coins, but collectors can't? My head is exploding with the hypocrisy.
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
<< <i>Text >>
Please explain to me why 2004 proof set is going for around 7,8 grand and 2005 proof set is over $4000.
david
Usual typos to correct.
<< <i>missing the biggest reason of all....there is no real interest in these as coins....the only interest is that you all think there is so much money to be made.....before you all come down on me....did you buy the set because you love it and want to keep it or because you read on the boards how much money you can make on it? hmmmmmm >>
didn't make as much sense on paper as it did in your head?
now the people are taking you to task.
funny.
hi, i'm tom.
i do not doctor coins like some who post in here.
As far as a drop, it depends on what these coins are bringing in the secondary market first.....
Plus I think that more collectors want the proofs for there collection of proof coins.....
I answered the question is what I did, my feeling is that these coins will be at or near the 2004 proof coins in a year or two (after I get my 1/10 oz one for my collection hopefully).....
I like the platinum coins and missed out on getting the 1/10 from the mint and that stinks, and the cash flow don't let me get the bigger coins or I would have gotten some of them, since I think they are long term winners.....
<< <i>Will the one oz platinum coin ever be worth as much as the tenth anniversary silver eagle? I can't see that happening... >>
I think it is very possible. 2004 1 oz is getting there and yet its mintage is little over 6000. The mintage for 2006-w is maybe 4000 or less.
Look at morgans, is 1892s, or 1893s any different than say 1885o or 1898o or 1881s or any other common dates? It is all numbers game. It doesn't matter how pretty or ugly it is, if it is rare, then money is there I think.
<< <i>Technically they are not part of a series. They could be a one year misadventure. Now if they were the Proofs with this low of a mintage...... >>
Technically yes, but this year's w-mint has same reverse as proof version whereas reg. bullion has same reverse since its inception. '
Someone called it the extention of proof series.
Mint annouces that they will produce more examples that will be availible until the middle of next year.
Supply exceeds demand. ...possible, but not probable.
David
2. Collectors described in 1 above already bought theirs from the mint and don't need to buy yours in the secondary market
3. Musical chairs game of buying and selling among speculators based on the "key date" story winds down.
CG
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
The base is building, it kind of reminds me of my collecting Frankins in the late 70's early 80's you could cherry pick til your heart was content.
<< <i>Will the one oz platinum coin ever be worth as much as the tenth anniversary silver eagle? I can't see that happening... >>
I agree. With the silver eagle series, Joe Shmoe down the street can afford to pay the cost of the proof and bullion versions of the coins every year. Silver is not exceedingly expensive and your average, run of the mill factory worker can afford to have a collection of them. As a result, you have a LOT more collectors of silver eagles than you do gold and platinum eagles.
Since there is an IMMENSELY larger number of Ag collectors than there are Pt collectors, the 1995-W coin is more attractive to people than any platinum coin ever will be. Frankly, you need to be doing pretty damned good financially if you can afford to just toss out $1,300 or more ever year on platinum coins and not have it impact your day to day life. This is why the demand for the 1995-W Silver Eagle is so high, and also the reason why the cost of it is so high. The platinum coins will never reach that level.
I believe it is simply the numbers of coins they made, not the content.
I don't know what everyone's projections are, but if Platimum metal fell 30+% and then collector interest moved to the First Hags, these coins' value could decline.
I believe that the collector base is increasing and that within a 4-5 year time frame,
the Plats from 2006 will be in excess of 12,000 for the 4 coin set.
Camelot
Camelot