Q David Bowers to Modern Collectors: Be Cautious

bidask

In his column in the recent Coin World ( Dec. 25th issue), QDB asserts: " Yellow flags should be out in the instances in which modern coins ( 'particularly' the 1940's onward) are said to be 'rare' if only a few have been certified in grades such as MS 67, 68 69 or 70, but whcih are common as all get out in the numismatically desirable grades of MS 65 or Proof 65."

He goes on to say that "...just about any Lincoln cent from the 1950's to date, of which hundreds of millions were struck, is likely to be as common as can be, with untold choice and gem Mint state pieces in existence, although not many have been certified yet as MS 69, or 70. People forget that pops of certified coins in high grades never decrease; they increase."

He then goes on to say about current products from the United Staes Mint that he sees ..." caution flags waving wildly when such coins are put in plastic holders marked MS 70 and Proof 70 and offered for prices far above what the mint charges."

Your thoughts?

7Jaguars

Hmm, I think we are in the minority, but many people agree with QDB that the "gussying up" of relatively common bits with plastic or AT is essentially wrong; put makeup and a wig on a pig and it is still not a beauty queen.

JZrarities

It's a pig

Preussen

QDB hit the nail squarely on the head. - Preussen

AuldFartte

<< <i>QDB hit the nail squarely on the head. - Preussen >>



Agreed. This mania for moderns in ultra-high grades is insane. Most of the proofs coming out of the US Mint are 69s, and I would bet that when the dust settles, so many of the rest will have been graded as 70s that they will be nearly as common as the 69s. I guess I fail to understand the point of grabbing the first 70s and paying outrageous prices for them. Is it really worth the premium for such short-lived bragging rights? Methinks not.

cladking

As it regards older (more than three years) lightside coins this is a major milestone.

Usually in the past he had much harsher words for them so this is significant softening.

Aethelred

For the most part I agree with what Bowers wrote, but I am offended by the anti-pig tone this thread has taken!

bosox

The same high grade modern hysteria hit Elizabeth cents from Canada a while ago. It brought out scads of newly certified coins and now the prices are dropping fast.

cladking

This advice is especially inappropriate for darkside collectors. While there are no regular
issue US moderns that have been so completely ignored that they are scarce or rare even
in unc this hardly applies to all the darkside moderns. Many of these are not only scarce in
gem but are scarce in unc. A few are pretty tough in circulated condition.

The problem with the Canadian coins is quite likely that one can't positively differentiate the
PL's from the uncs. I have no knowledge of this but have long anticipated it. Another pro-
blem with canadian is that the market is far smaller but many Americans still set these aside
waiting for growth in the collector base. There are not substantial numbers of nice choice
1972 quarters around. There aren't even too many uncs but they still exceed the number of
collectors at the current time.

The US situation is far different. The numbers in existence aren't that much higher but the po-
tential demand is enormous. How many millions of collectors did it take to push the value of
the 1950-D to $150 in today's money? Well guess what. There isn't even one single eagle
reverse clad quarter that exists in the kind of numbers (in unc) that the '50-D did. What is the
potential demand from 50 million states collectors who are already collecting clad quarters?

Then throw in the fact that most unc clad quarters look like crap because of horrid strikes and
poor care. Say what you will about how many more coins will be made in high grade but the
fact will always be that these are rare in high grade and prices are set more by demand than by
supply.

coinkat

He makes some valid comments... perhaps we should be alittle more concerned about the remaining population of original coins... I believe that is a far bigger issue today than determining whether moderns are overvalued. Just my view from the cheap seats

coinguy89

<< <i>This advice is especially inappropriate for darkside collectors. While there are no regular
issue US moderns that have been so completely ignored that they are scarce or rare even
in unc this hardly applies to all the darkside moderns. Many of these are not only scarce in
gem but are scarce in unc. A few are pretty tough in circulated condition. >>



I'm beginning to wonder if U.S. collectors have considered buying large amounts of UNC darkside moderns, hoarding them until their time comes, if their time comes.

cladking

<< <i>

I'm beginning to wonder if U.S. collectors have considered buying large amounts of UNC darkside moderns, hoarding them until their time comes, if their time comes. >>



Good luck.

I've been doing it for thirty years and I couldn't find much in the beginning and they
are far tougher now. One of my favorites was The Portuguese escudo coinage from
the 20th century. I never found a single unc before 1964. Only after ten years of looking
did I start setting aside VF to AU coins. And still there are very few coins I've found.
It was the same just about everywhere; the coins were either distressinly common or
they were virtually unavailable.

My big error was in not attending the estate sale for Mr Joe Lucas from Ohio. He was
known as "Unc Junk" bacause he owned huge numbers of "worthless" modern base
metal coins. I wanted and planned to attend but just couldn't find a way to get out of
work. So tons of very common and very rare coins were sold for peanuts to people who
mostly couldn't tell the difference. I'm confident he knew the difference because he'd
talk about some of his scarcer coins like the Algerian 1952 100F coin in gem. This suck-
er isn't too tough in circulated condition but is tougher than the Dominican 1897 coins
in nice shape. Indeed this whole series is almost unavailable in unc. THe only way to
find much of anything was by sifting through vast numbers of coins. I can scan coins very
quickly and I can practically smell anything unusual or I'd never have gotten much of any-
thing of real interest.

A lot of the scarcities (especially the ones I never found) have been simply soaring in
price the last few years. My guess is that the rate at which they are rising will actually
increase in many cases since the demand for such coins is still very low.

And, yes, there will be numerous cases where coins crash to half their price and lose 100's
in value. But consider that even today many of these coins sell for 50c or a dollar if you can
find them.

Even some of the coins that were available in massive quantities have enjoyed substant-
ial percentage increases. Things like the Austrian 50g from the '50's are selling for five or
ten dollars each but could be found by the roll back in the early '60's. Three years ago you
could get them for a dime but I thought they were too common.