If you had to predict right now, will Carlos Beltran be a HOFer

gregmo32

This is your opinion. Please state "yes" or "no" and explain why.

yankeeno7

He will be on the fence like an Andre Dawson or maybe not quite Andre Dawson.

He had an excellent season this year...a career year. He will have more decent years but I dont think he will have the numbers to be in the HOF unless 2400 hits and 350-400 HRs gets you in. That is what he is on pace for. He turns 30 in April with 8 full seasons under his belt.

He has averaged 28 HRs and 150-160 hits per year. Dawson averaged 31 HRs and 171 hits per year.

He would have to put together quite a string of season like 2006 to be a shoe in. Otherwise, I think he will be on the bubble.

Axtell

I'd say 2006 was more of an aberration than an indicator of what he's going to do.

As yankeeno noted, he's averaged 28 HRs per season. A guy who hits .275 with 30 HRs and 100 RBIs, who doesn't win an MVP, doesn't do any league leading in any stat, isn't a HoFer in my book.

WinPitcher

Not saying he is a HOF'er, BUT how can anyone say that this year was an abberation? Did he not have a great year in 04 as well? Not sure I agree with that statement. I would think that 05 was the 'abberation'

with all that said I'd say NO he is not a HOF'er

Steve

bri2327

Not a chance.

For comparison Bernie Williams had a stretch of 7 years where he did the following,

1996---25 HR 102 RBI .306 BA
1997---21 HR 100 RBI .328 BA
1998---26 HR 97 RBI .339 BA
1999---25 HR 115 RBI .342 BA
2000---30 HR 121 RBI .307 BA
2001---26 HR 94 RBI .307 BA
2002---19 HR 102 RBI .333 BA

For the 7 years thats an average of 25 HR's, 104 RBI's, .323 BA

He also scored over 100 runs each of those seasons, averaged 33 doubles, and 13 SB's and won 4 gold gloves during that 7 year stretch.

I dont think there is anyone who considers Bernie Williams HOF material yet his numbers will most certainly top anything Beltran does in any 7 year stretch.

Jersey

He's very good. But, the HOF is not meant for players who are just very good. They should be exceptional.

Writer11

I can't see him as a Hall of Famer ... see Axtell's comments and bri2327's.

stown

His post-season stats are spectacular but historically, regular season's are just a tad better than average.

If he continues at last year's pace, he may get in. Otherwise, he won't.

Axtell

<< <i>Did he not have a great year in 04 as well? >>



He had a great second half of '04.

Darin

Yes.
Because I once saw him in KC pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth inning with the Yanks beating the Royals 10-1, nobody on base. Beltran hits a routine grounder to Soriano at second, he takes his time and the throw to first........................too late. Beltran hustles all the way and beats it out. Soriano looks all around at his teammates with a confused look on his face as if to say, "how did he get there so fast?".

grote15

I'm an avid Mets fan, but I'd have to say no way at this stage. He'd have to amp it up for at least a few more years to gain consideration, IMO. Piazza, though, should be a first ballot lock for the Hall, hopefully in a Mets uni, too!

rbdjr1

Well, like Dawson,

take a look again at Gary Sheffield,

in 19 seasons, and this includes some bad injury years, ...and a few early, off-years!

33 HR's 109 RBI's .297 BA 174 HITS

1992 MVP

(usually Gary's season numbers are in the top 10!)

Too bad Sheff had a few "off seasons" early, and a few "injury laden years", otherwise his liftime BA and other stats would, IMO, would have "puntched his HOF ticket".

He's on the bubble now, and when he retires, will be pretty close, IMO.

rd

edit: i.e., Beltran? NADA!

grote15

take a look again at Gary Sheffield,

in 19 seasons, and this includes some bad injury years, ...and a few early, off-years!

33 HR's 109 RBI's .297 BA 174 HITS

1992 MVP

Bonds won the NL MVP in 1992. Sheffield finished third in the voting behind Bonds & Terry Pendleton (also known as Met killer).

rbdjr1

<< <i>take a look again at Gary Sheffield,

in 19 seasons, and this includes some bad injury years, ...and a few early, off-years!

33 HR's 109 RBI's .297 BA 174 HITS

1992 MVP

Bonds won the NL MVP in 1992. Sheffield finished third in the voting behind Bonds & Terry Pendleton (also known as Met killer). >>



I'm corrected, my bad! Sheff was the "ML Player of the Year" in 1992, not the MVP, opps!

other gary-stats:

Through 2006, Sheffield was 6th among all active players in walks (1,293), 7th in hbp (119), 8th in runs (1,433), hits (2,390), and RBIs (1,501), and 9th in home runs (455).


9-time All-Star (1992-93, 1996, 1998-2000, 2003-05)
4-time Silver Slugger Award (1992, 1996, 2003-04)
Led National League in Batting Average (.330) and Total Bases (323) in 1992
Led National League in On-base percentage (.465) and OPS (1.090) in 1996
Los Angeles Dodgers Career Leader in On-base percentage (.424), Slugging Percentage (.573), OPS (.998) and At Bats per Home Run (14.5)
Holds Los Angeles Dodgers Single-Season record for At Bats per Home Run (11.7 in 2000)


...and his Tampa team finished second in the 1980 Little League World Series

edit: IRON SHEFF, U R "ON THE BUBBLE"


rd

onlyanumber

He's had only three very good seasons. He needs a lot more. Ask again in five years and the thoughts may be different. I'd guess No, though.

WinPitcher

Beltran lifetime stats

Actually in 04 he was pretty constant. He had an outrageous post season and I think that is what people are thinking. His time with the Royals that year he was on pace for 30 homers and 100 ribbies as well.


he also has had more then just 3 good/great years. A quick look at his stats will bare this out. In 8 seasons he has had 2 poor ones. His sophmore and his first with the Mets (05) Now what some consider good may not be the same as what i consider it to be but in those 6 years he constantly had Homers in the high 20's, scored 100+ and drove in 100+ and averaged around 175-180 hits.

Axtell

I don't see a guy who bats .275 and 28-30 HRs a year as a HoFer.

WinPitcher

Really? So if a guy does that and averages that for say 18 years you still don't think he would belong?

If a guy did that he would have 540 homers and 1800 ribbies.

Now before anyone gets all huffed up I do not think Beltran is a HOF'r. However I believe that if a guy can total 540 homers and have 1800 ribbies he is a HOF'r.

And everyone thus far with those stats is in the HOF.

Steve

Axtell

<< <i>Really? So if a guy does that and averages that for say 18 years you still don't think he would belong? >>



No, mediocrity should not be rewarded. And a guy who hits 28 HRs a year is mediocre.




<< <i>If a guy did that he would have 540 homers and 1800 ribbies. >>



Your point is? He never dominated. He's not a HoFer, just like people like Blyleven. Mediocrity over a long period does not make a HoFer.



<< <i>Now before anyone gets all huffed up I do not think Beltran is a HOF'r. However I believe that if a guy can total 540 homers and have 1800 ribbies he is a HOF'r. >>



Yes, let's award people for being average for a long period of time.



<< <i>And everyone thus far with those stats is in the HOF. >>



I doubt there is anyone with 500 HRs who averaged 28 HRs over a career.

WinPitcher

I doubt there is anyone with 500 HRs who averaged 28 HRs over a career.

I guess that depends on how one does the average. Because if you average guys like banks, mathews, etc they average out to around 28 per season.

with that said, I do not think that averaging 28 homers and driving in 100 runs is mediocre.

I also will not debate what merits a HOF with anyone as it is too subjective. Dominating at a pos. is but one factor not the end all.

Eddie Murray if I remm correctly hit 28 homers almost every year.


Steve

Edited to add: what some think is mediocre others think consistency.

onlyanumber

<< <i>


I doubt there is anyone with 500 HRs who averaged 28 HRs over a career. >>



Eddie Murray averaged 27 a year

grote15

I doubt there is anyone with 500 HRs who averaged 28 HRs over a career. >>



Eddie Murray averaged 27 a year

That is true, but Murray also had over 3,200 hits and nearly 2,000 RBI. I believe he is one of only three players to ever hit more than 500 HRs and have 3,000 hits in a career. Beltran is nowhere near that level, to be fair.

WinPitcher

Grote

Actually 4 players have done that. Aaron, Mays, Murray and Palmeiro.

I agree Beltran is not a HOF'r too

Ax mentioned that averaging 28 homers and 100 ribbies is mediocre and I was trying to convey that it wasn't. As usual the thread went askew.

Steve

grote15

Actually 4 players have done that. Aaron, Mays, Murray and Palmeiro.

I should have clarified: three players did it legitimately, without cheating.

stown

If you only want to focus on a few career stats, are these HOF worthy?

1,626 Hits, 12 SB, .263 BA, 6 Triples...

Doesn't sound all that great, huh?

gregmo32

Is that Big Mac?

stown

Yuppers.

gregmo32

I wish I could find some place that would be taking odds on Beltran's HOF chances. I think the likelihood is much higher than most would perceive. But that's jusy me...

grote15

As a Mets fan I love Carlos in the lineup too, but he'd have to almost double his career numbers to merit HOF induction. He'd be under 40 years old in another 9 years, so who knows. But there have been many players that have been well on their way to the HOF through the first half of their playing career only to fall way short, so we'll see. Not impossible by any means, though.

gregmo32

Thought I would pull this old thread back and see if anyone is still around, and what they think.

Tabe

I'd say no. He's had a fine career - 8 seasons (and counting) of 100+ RBI but, outside of 2006, there's never really been a time where he'd be one of the first guys named in a "best player in MLB" discussion - and even that's a stretch. IMHO, he's in that "Hall of Very Good" category but not quite HOF.

larryallen73

No chance on earth unless he plays until he is 50 or so.

mcadams

No.

perkdog

Nope

stown

Had to look deep into my photobucket archives for this classic pic:



However, I still remember that game like it was yesterday.

markj111

Beltran exceeds the average HOFer in Bill James' HOF Monitor. Note that it predicts who will get in, not who should. He is still going strong, and plays a premier defensive position. My guess is that he will get in. His career WAR is 83rd all time. Virtually everyone ahead of him is a HOF caliber player, as are many who are behind him.

digicat

He put up some nice numbers when he was healthy, but this is the image of Beltran that sticks in my mind...
Giants won via walkoff when he was here. He was in the dugout, and when the Giants got the hit and won the game, the dugout cleared and Beltran just looked with disgust at his teammates and sulked away. He didn't join the celebration.

Zip on to the 55 second mark to see Beltran's "team spirit."

nam812

And somewhere in Baltimore tonight CDsNuts weeps.

3BoyzTrading

He isn't on pace to hit any key HOF numbers at 36 years old. It's possible he could go on a tear but right now he's only in the HOVG.
Current Career Hits: 2191
Career HR's: 354
Sleeper stat: Stolen Bases:308

Not bad being in the 300-300 Club, that can't be easy. He's probably only got 80 HR's left in him which is well short of the 500HR total.

So 2500 hits and 430HR's just aren't enough.

digicat

300-300-2000 club:

Barry Bonds (762/514/2935)
Willie Mays (660/338/3283)
Andre Dawson (438/314/2774)
Steve Finley (304/320/2546)
A-Rod (647/318/2901)
Carlos Beltran (334/306/2064)



Finley's presence in this "club" kinda cheapens it.

gregmo32

Come on, Carlos. Make us proud!

UnwoundSage

If he can manage to stay healthy the rest of his career and play about 5 more seasons, he gets in. Averages 175 hits per 162 games. Would only need about 157 a year average for next 5 years to reach 3000 hits. Then he is a lock.

gregmo32

Now that he is a Yankee for the next three years, how much better are his chances?

3BoyzTrading

Not much better, he still needs to perform and achieve the career milestone of 3000 hits.

orioles93

He needs to have about 5-6 more quality years to get to 3000 hits. Which isn't way out of the realm of possibility if he is primarily a DH in that time period. Whether he gets there or not, he should have no problem in the next 2-3 years getting past 400 homers, 500 doubles, and 1500 RBI. Consider he already has over 300 stolen bases and a respectable career average and obp. Those numbers are pretty darn close to a hall of famer and add in his postseason resume, and I think he's closer to being a hall of famer than most people on these boards thinks.