Do Weekly Reports of Mintages Kill the Potential...

EricSan

of ever again producing a truly low mintage coin such as the Jackie Robinson uncirc $5 gold commemorative coin?

I've been wondering about this since I learned of places like NN publishing the sales statistics from the US Mint every week. It seems that now there can be no more "surprise" winners in any of the series of coins produced by the mint. Since collectors and investors alike will watch the numbers every week, will people flock to the lower mintage coins in the 11th hour, thus destroying their rarity?

I seem to be alone, but I have an interst in the first wives' gold commems that will begin next year. I think it will be fun to have an entire set of these and I further suspect that there will be some very low mintages in this series. I also think that the mintages would be far lower if sales were not reported each and every week.

While I generally applaud the free sharing of information, has the mint bowed to our demands to release figures only to have it prevent the "creation" of another Jackie Robinson uncirc $5 success story?

Any opinions are welcome!
Eric

EricSan

Hmmm, so doe no one have an opinion, or did everyone just issue a collective "Doh!" ?

SoundPoint

<< <i>of ever again producing a truly low mintage coin such as the Jackie Robinson uncirc $5 gold commemorative coin?

I've been wondering about this since I learned of places like NN publishing the sales statistics from the US Mint every week. It seems that now there can be no more "surprise" winners in any of the series of coins produced by the mint. Since collectors and investors alike will watch the numbers every week, will people flock to the lower mintage coins in the 11th hour, thus destroying their rarity?

I seem to be alone, but I have an interst in the first wives' gold commems that will begin next year. I think it will be fun to have an entire set of these and I further suspect that there will be some very low mintages in this series. I also think that the mintages would be far lower if sales were not reported each and every week.

While I generally applaud the free sharing of information, has the mint bowed to our demands to release figures only to have it prevent the "creation" of another Jackie Robinson uncirc $5 success story?

Any opinions are welcome!
Eric >>



I think you make an excellent point! Some people monitor mintage figures trying to predict the next rarity.

In the case of the Jackie Robinson uncirculated $5 gold, I think precious metal prices were a lot cheaper at that time; hence, collector demand for numismatic products were not that great. With the US Government running huge deficits, metals prices are soaring now.

This is causing a huge numismatic collecting/investing frenzy, with what I'll call the EBAY collectors jumping into the arena. Consequently, the mint will keep introducing more and more new products (to satisfy new demand & deficit reduction). At some point in the future, I think the mint will overproduce (or maybe I should say - people might not have the funds to support all the mints offerings) thus causing possible coin rarities - such as the one you mention (first wives' gold commems).

Just my opinion anyway!

Good Luck trying to find the perfect rarity that everyone wants!

SoundPoint

Conder101

Order figures were reported on the Jackie Robinson coins at the time they were being ordered as well, yet it still had a very low final mintage. Levels of other commems and bullion coins have been reported since then as well and yet some of them have had low mintages as well. Sometimes collectors just don't care about an issue and don't bother ordering it. Then later they realize that no one else did either and maybe they should pick one up while they are still cheap. Unfortunately collectors seem to think these things and come to the same conclusion at the same time. Sointerest in an item jumps, and the price jumps as well. Then from that time forward the price tends to stay high because it WAS high, even if interest cools. I can't help but wonder how much of the interest in the Jackie Robinson today is because they want to honor Robinson, and how much is because the coin is expensive.

Zoins

<< <i>I can't help but wonder how much of the interest in the Jackie Robinson today is because they want to honor Robinson, and how much is because the coin is expensive. >>

Another motivator could be rarity. High rarity is sometimes correlated with high price but not always. BTW, I really like the baseball reverse; that in itself makes it a really cool coin for me.

CoinHusker

<< <i>... I have an interst in the first wives' gold commems that will begin next year. >>




The subject matter alone, not to mention cost, should keep mintages of these low no matter how many sales figures are released.

Zoins

<< <i>I can't help but wonder how much of the interest in the Jackie Robinson today is because they want to honor Robinson, and how much is because the coin is expensive. >>

I prefer issues like this where the coin has a nice design and is just rare, in all conditions, over coins where the overall mintage is ultra high and you're relying on conditional rarity. High prices may deter me from getting the coin but not my interest. I like plenty of cheap things that are rare as well.

TheRaven

I think that it makes it more difficult, but if the item is expensive, the theme or design is terrible or it is platinum (nobody seems to want these) you can get a real rarity.....

Another possibility is if the mint unexpectively cuts off selling said item.....

Some of the comms the next few years I have zero interest in and am not going to purchase them even if they only sell 10 of them.....

If funds are limited, like they are for most people, you can only purchase what you will like and enjoy.....

53BKid

I think you bring out a really good point about the mintage figures published in N/N.

You also will probably be right about low mintages on the upcoming gold commemorative program that I've been dubbing 'the First Hag' series. My guess is that the program will be a loss-leader for the mint, regardless of whether figures are published.

I've collected gold commems since the early '70s. But this program takes me right out. I frankly don't care whether the mint limits production to 500 coins--I'm not interested in owning them whatsoever. I also think the after-market demand will be muted for years to come, especially if the first couple years' coins don't see significant appreciation.

Now, if they were Playboy centerfolds....

EricSan

I also wonder if this is why the Mint seems to be playing games with their recent coin policies. First the gold and silver "w" coins were a part of the Anniv sets, now they are available individually. The "w" plats were originally "minted to demand", now that language seems to have disappeared... Are these instances of the Mint trying to offset the effect of releasing weekly sales figures?

Perhaps some will say I'm becoming too "conspiracy" influenced, but there seem to be some strange practices from the mint lately.

Eric

aficionado

Rarities just happen when you least expect it and no one can guess what it will be or when it will happen.

Sure we have the Rev. Pr.

But what about the 1999 Silver set, who knew??
Wisconsin quarter, just happened.
2004 Plat. Proofs, mint cut off sales unexpectedly.

Sh*t happens and when it does, your either a winner or your kicking yourself.