A very specific "coins as investments" question

FoundingFather

You can assume I have a good handle on investing and the appropriateness (or lack of) of having coins as part of your portfolio. My question is very specific:

What is the coin type or series (or however you want to describe the group you have in mind) that has had the most STEADY appreciation? I am not talking about the best appreciation, just the one with the least volatility. Are there ANY coins groups or types that have appreciated more than the rate of inflation over many decades? If so - which was the least volatile? I am basically looking to see if there is the equivalent of a very conservative stock with a dividend, or boring steady CD, in the coin world. In other words, if you were willing to give up more growth in exchange for slow and steady appreciation that beat inflation, what "coin investment" would you have invested in?

Thanks in advance!

DennisH

My guess is proof gold, $4 Stellas, and $50 Pan-Pac commemoratives

coinguy1

<< <i>My guess is proof gold, $4 Stellas, and $50 Pan-Pac commemoratives >>

Dennis, while I don't have an answer to provide yet, my guess/recollection is that Proof gold (including Stella's) has had big swings, rather than steady increases over the decades. And likewise, the Pan Pac $50's, due to their rarity/high prices, have probably suffered more than many other lower priced coins during the bad times.

A couple of my guesses (that's all they are) would be key date 20th century pieces and pre-1808 circulated bust coinage.

Cam40

20th century key-date coins....

Jcarney

I'll go one step further and say key date Lincoln cents. Since I started collecting as a kid...about 30 years, the 1909S VDB, 1914D, 1955DDO and 1922 plain, in collector grades, have gone up slowly and steadily. I'm not sure about the crash years of the 80s, but I'll bet the long-term chart would look like a ski slope.

FoundingFather

Interesting ... thanks for the replies so far ...

roadrunner

Choice and gem Unc type coins have done well also. Considering that coins put away by Benson for example in the mid 1940's at $1 to $5 each are now worth a thousand, or thousand's each is a nice return. While not steady year to year, it is steady from decade to decade once you hit the 1970's. There were downs along the way, just like stocks went through. Frankly, any well picked gem (esp superb) coin prior to say 1960 (and better yet - prior to 1930) has done extremely well. Some well selected moderns and post 1940 REG set items have gone up by 50-100X each. Gem red Indian cents were $5 each in the early 1960's, today about 50-100X that.
How about a Bag of BU seated dollars in 1964 for $1000 (18% return per year over 42 years).

A number of my favorite seated coins in gem have appreciated 50X since 1976. That's a 14% per annum compounded return, very similar to what Pittman, Norweb, Elisaberg and others earned on their collections over many decades. At first glance 14% per year almost seems anemic until you factor in compounding over 40 years through up and down markets, recessions, etc.

roadrunner

fastrudy

THREE CENT NICKELS define steady

roadrunner

Since the mid-1970's key date seated quarters, dimes and halves have been very steady and always upwards.

I sold a Fine 1870-cc half back in 1975 for $225 (purchased it for $175). Today that coin is thousands of dollars. Very steady and always upwards in every kind of market. Same can be said for almost all key date circ seated material.

roadrunner

DennisH

My gut hunch is there are no coins that meet the questioner's criteria, particularly in regard to having steady appreciation that beats inflation and no volatility. In fact, using those terms in the same sentence in reference to coins strikes me as an oxymoron.

So I guessed as best I could, talking a long term view and ignoring the down cycles.

FoundingFather

Hi - not NO volatility, just the least compared to others.

Coinosaurus

<< <i>Same can be said for almost all key date circ seated material. >>



I think the higher grades of seated coins have appreciated more, except for generic common date uncs. Most semi-key and key branch mint uncs have been very solid performers.

The very key dates (74-CC 10c, 78-S 50c) are the exceptions and have done spectacularly well in very low grades. This is due to a small number of collectors needing the last coin for the set, and I sense this has cooled off a bit recently. Dick Osburn, in his last market report, suggested that the best value for these issues is now in mid-grades, if you can find them. I don't think I've ever even seen a mid-grade 78-S half, they seems to be all uncs or low grade.

morgansforever

93 S Morgan, XF in 1975, roughly $550, today about $13,000. Still a good buy at 13k, who knows what the future will be for these.

ziggy29

Key dates and flowing hair/draped bust coinage. It's almost nothing but up for these.

morgansforever

Key dates and flowing hair/draped bust coinage. It's almost nothing but up for these.

I hear that, can't go wrong with a draped bust

morgansforever

My gut hunch is there are no coins that meet the questioner's criteria, particularly in regard to having steady appreciation that beats inflation and no volatility. In fact, using those terms in the same sentence in reference to coins strikes me as an oxymoron.

I disagree, 01 Buffalos have out paced inflation, so hasn't the 96 ASE.

DeusExMachina

My uneducated guess would be key dates in widely collected series such as Morgans, Lincoln cents, Indian head quarter eagles, etc.

Look for sets with 1 or 2 big time coins. I think that those types of coins would exhibit a general upward sloping price graph. The other thing to remember is that short time periods contain lots of "noise", try to focus on long time periods to elimnate this noise.

morgansforever

My uneducated guess would be key dates in widely collected series such as Morgans, Lincoln cents, Indian head quarter eagles, etc.


Nice Capped Bust

DeusExMachina

Thanks. Actually, I revise my earlier statement--try 1839-O CBHs. Those never go down in price.

morgansforever

Thanks. Actually, I revise my earlier statement--try 1839-O CBHs. Those never go down in price.


What is the grade of that sweet CBH? I would assume MS?

DeusExMachina

Its graded VF-30.

morgansforever

Its graded VF-30.

Boy do I feel like an idiot

RedTiger

Looking at the various segments that make up the PCGS3000 might be a useful exercise.

link

For beginners reading along, another thing to keep in mind, is that some of the coins are thinly traded and hard to obtain. For thinly traded issues there are no "widgets," each coin stands on its own merits.

People with superior contacts, and superior grading skills will have a huge edge over the typical coin investor, who usually doesn't have any contacts and doesn't know how to grade. Again, I know there are beginners reading with interest and my comments are directed towards them, not the original poster, or the informed responses.

CaptainRon

Any modern Unc rolls from the bank, you will always get back at least what you payed for them.

Ron

pharmer

Good to see you getting into coins.

robertpr

If you're serious about looking at past performance, I would recommend the CDN Graph books (click on "graphs" at the top of the page).

michael

pioneer/territorial gold which is undamaged, original, eye appealling, not stripped cleaned, in the choice au to unc grade range

flowing hair half dimes, halves and dollars which are undamaged, original, eye appealling, not stripped cleaned, in the choice vg to au grade range

DennisH

"01 Buffalos have out paced inflation, so hasn't the 96 ASE."

What? Either I'm badly missing something here, or something is missing.

Coxe

My guesses: Arrows & Rays quarters in XF, Cap Bust half eagles in XF and gem, early quarters in gem, and Chain cents in G-VG.

RichieURich

<< <i>

<< <i>Same can be said for almost all key date circ seated material. >>



I think the higher grades of seated coins have appreciated more, except for generic common date uncs. Most semi-key and key branch mint uncs have been very solid performers.

The very key dates (74-CC 10c, 78-S 50c) are the exceptions and have done spectacularly well in very low grades. This is due to a small number of collectors needing the last coin for the set, and I sense this has cooled off a bit recently. Dick Osburn, in his last market report, suggested that the best value for these issues is now in mid-grades, if you can find them. I don't think I've ever even seen a mid-grade 78-S half, they seems to be all uncs or low grade. >>



I've seen a few mid-grade 1878-S halves, a VF in Baltimore in 1985 for $5,750 (seemed high at the time), and a couple Fines and VF's. But as you say, there are a lot of low grade ones, some Uncs and a few AU's.