Intergenerational coin investments...

MrEureka

A question for the numismatic historians:

When was the last time that after building collections over a given period of 30 years, most sharp numismatists would have found themselves with a paper loss on their collections?

Inflation-adjusted or otherwise. I'll take whatever info I can get.

mrearlygold

Collections consisting of what series? All series?


1981?

tradedollarnut

Wouldn't a sharp numismatist by definition not lose money over a period of 30 years?

Barry

Ask this question again about 2010.

roadrunner

Even as early as 2009. But as TDN said, most sharp numismatists would have stopped buying before the end of 1979.

Don't have any info on the 1929 to 1959 period but it would be the next one I'd look at.

roadrunner

PerryHall

<< <i>Wouldn't a sharp numismatist by definition not lose money over a period of 30 years? >>



Don't confuse "numismatist" with "investor" or even "collector". You can be one, two, or all three.

MrEureka

most sharp numismatists would have stopped buying before the end of 1979.

Brian - It's obvious that you did not attend the March 1980 Garrett sale.

MrEureka

My guess is that you have to go back to the Dark Ages for the answer. I'm wondering if anyone can prove me wrong.

RedTiger

It is a loaded question, almost by definition, someone sharp buys coins that go up in value. However, anyone who listened to the conventional wisdom of that day and loaded up on uncirculated rolls, and proof sets bought in the after market during their investment hey day would still be looking to break even on many of their coins. That can serve as a caution flag for anyone looking to follow today's conventional wisdom (insert cliches here).

Unfortunately, there are also quite a few not so sharp people that put significant sums of money into coins at or near the bubble top, buying common date certified coins. It will take a lot of upwards price movement for them to be at break even on a nominal basis and they may never break even when factoring inflation adjustments.

MrEureka

That can serve as a caution flag for anyone looking to follow today's conventional wisdom (insert cliches here).

That can serve as a caution flag for anyone looking to follow today's conventional wisdom that you should buy the coin, not the holder.

mrearlygold

<< <i>My guess is that you have to go back to the Dark Ages for the answer. I'm wondering if anyone can prove me wrong. >>



Pre 1986?

Coinosaurus

I'm sure it's happened, but people don't talk about their losses. Instead the dealers and auction houses like to make noise about the Pittman's, Norweb's (talk about intergenerational collecting - they last four generations!), etc.

There must be plenty of cases where someone put together a collection for many years (even thirty) only to have it sold by the heirs to the local coin merchant at significant losses. But the records simply don't exist to reconstruct this. The guy who made the rip isn't going to talk about it publicly. And the family never knew what they had anyway.

I think the problem with your question is that most people would interpret the word "sharp" as "capable of making money trading coins". In other words, it's a moot question. OTOH, if "sharp" means "bought decent coins", then yes, I am sure there are plenty of cases where 30 year old collections were disposed of at less than market value by unknowning heirs.

roadrunner

Brian - It's obvious that you did not attend the March 1980 Garrett sale.

Correctamundo. I bailed on the big coin market right around the fall of 1979. I unloaded all my questionable crap that I have picked up from 1977-1979 that had been hard to get rid of prior. It flew out the door in later 1979 and early 1980. It wasn't until mid-1982 that I started buying anything serious again. I considered myself a serious numismatist then. Today, I am part speculator and everything else rolled into one. Can't really call myself a purist serious numismatist or I'd probably would have stopped buying again at this point. By the way......how was the Garrett sale?

roadrunner

RedTiger

<< <i>That can serve as a caution flag for anyone looking to follow today's conventional wisdom (insert cliches here).

That can serve as a caution flag for anyone looking to follow today's conventional wisdom that you should buy the coin, not the holder.


>>



Even that relatively innocuous looking cliche can get a novice in trouble. There are many collectors in today's market paying big premiums for common coins, just because a sweet talking seller convinces the novice that the coin is really nice for the grade. The coin may or may not be, the novice has no basis for judging. Even more dangerous are such cliches as buy key-dates, they always go up, buy the best grade you can afford, they always go up more than the lower grade coins. These cliches have been mostly true for many years. However looking forward 30 years, it may be someone following the old cliches of loading up on uncirculated rolls and proof sets at after market prices, even when they look pricey, that does better financially than those following today's popular cliches.