with the imaginary silver shortage I hear so much about

hootchiegirl

seems everyone has plenty of silver the mint has tons...look they can keep pumpin out them neat sets of junk, dealers have plenty. call around you can get 1 million ounces within 200 miles of your home or on the internet if ya gots the money. silver shortage=silver seller hype believe it

cladking

The mint has NO more silver than they need for current demand and have to
continually make purchases to continue their programs. There are millions of
ounces around but every year demand for silver outstrips new production by
100,000,000 ounces while production has leveled off and demand continues a
shallow geometric increase. Even if there are several billion ounces of silver
available a minor change in investor atitudes among the planets 6,000,000,000
people could cause this supply to evaporate nearly overnight.

In any case there will be a day of reckonning sooner or later. Unless trends re-
verse there simply will be a real shortage in the future.

More importantly perhaps is this shortage might already exist if all the investors
in silver actually had the silver in their possession. Many longs have held paper
for years because of the expense of holding real silver and it's unlikely the issuers
of this paper could actually fullfill their contracts with the amount of silver available.
When silver fundamentals chang price movements will be explosive and paper will
be found to have no real backing. Holders will be out the profit, and in most cases,
their principle as well.

notwilight

I would say demand for silver is fairly elastic. If price goes up, demand will go down. --Jerry

cladking

<< <i>I would say demand for silver is fairly elastic. If price goes up, demand will go down. --Jerry >>



This certainly is very true for investor demand most of the time but is not
so true for industrial and other commercial demand. Very very little silver
is used in most applications and even a twenty fold increase in silver cost
would be nearly invisible to the consumer.

Indeed. Dramatically higher prices could have the opposite effect in some
applications. In jewelry for example higher prices could actually lift demand
as buyers come to see this product as more desirable. There is silver used
in packaging for products and this might increase with higher prices as well.

There's no "silver bullet" for solving the shrinking supply of silver. Perhaps
a massive recession caused by falling oil production would simply delay the
inevitable.

Cladiator

So what does generic US 90% silver go for now a days?

labrams

labrams

There was put order put in for more than practially all the silver production for some unreasonably long period of time recently that ties up all the actual, not paper, silver transactions. Silver is going to soar for the short term, then crash, because of this. I'll see if I can find the reference, but unless you have real physical silver in your possessio, you're going to end up holding worthless paper.

PerryHall

<< <i>Hootchie, is this REALLY the picture and image you want to be? As a mother and grandmother, I was pretty set back to see it and wonder if you just lost all your self esteem somewhere in the road and need to get it back. Call me, write me. My phone is XXX-XXX-XXXX and email: labrams@tampabay.rr.com. You don't have to sell ''slutty'' and ''sex'' to make your life. 53 years old. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. I want to help you. >>



Not a good idea to publish your phone number. Less dangerous to send a PM.

thestig

Hi, this is old news, but I hear there is no silver left in the U.S. mint, or in Canada. Is this true?

Will silver reach 50 an ounce when the sec is found for Negligence for allowing such a large naked short without any real silver to back it?

mach19

Wow Two post's & you found this one from a year & a half ago. Who are you ?

thestig

My name is jim Hi.

thestig

I have been trying to get info on the silver market, thats why i joined. there was only 2 results.

mach19

<< <i>My name is jim Hi. >>



Jim, Somehow I get the feeling you have been here before. People new to this forum usually do not go back to a post a year & a half ago. What gives ?

thestig

I keep up with the news, sometimes I check here.
Yesterday I did a search their was only 2 results for silver shortage.
I dug this up to see if there was more info.

sorry..

mach19

<< <i>I keep up with the news, sometimes I check here.
Yesterday I did a search their was only 2 results for silver shortage.
I dug this up to see if there was more info.

sorry.. >>





Don't be sorry my friend. Search "silver" & you will find a lot MORE information.

I should be the one to say I am sorry, Glad to have you on board. You will hear a lot about silver on this board. Return often or you will miss out. Again "I" am sorry.

TrustNo1

theres tons of silver...just dealers running out fast until the next delivery wave....check out Pan American Silver's stats..they have lots and lots

thestig

<< <i>theres tons of silver...just dealers running out fast until the next delivery wave....check out Pan American Silver's stats..they have lots and lots >>



thank you...

TrustNo1

Bill Gates isnt dumb

DustyCoinbox

<< <i>...

More importantly perhaps is this shortage might already exist if all the investors
in silver actually had the silver in their possession. Many longs have held paper
for years because of the expense of holding real silver and it's unlikely the issuers
of this paper could actually fullfill their contracts with the amount of silver available.
When silver fundamentals chang price movements will be explosive and paper will
be found to have no real backing. Holders will be out the profit, and in most cases,
their principle as well. >>




What kinds of paper is this exactly?

Depositary receipts have to be accurate - otherwise someone goes to jail for fraud.
Futures contracts are legally binding to either deliver the silver or pay money damages.
ETFs are not backed in silver, just mutual funds that own shares of mining companies or one of the above...

RWB

Some of the supply/demand numbers quoted in earlier posts appear to be mistaken. Hardly “…demand for silver outstrips new production by 100,000,000 ounces.”

2006 World silver supply: 911.8 million ounces
2006 World silver demand: 840.5 million ounces.
(Source: http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply/index.php.)

Go to the source listed above and you can find facts, not speculation.

Jcarney

<< <i>Some of the supply/demand numbers quoted in earlier posts appear to be mistaken. Hardly “…demand for silver outstrips new production by 100,000,000 ounces.”

2006 World silver supply: 911.8 million ounces
2006 World silver demand: 840.5 million ounces.
(Source: http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply/index.php.)

Go to the source listed above and you can find facts, not speculation. >>



Hang on a second, Cladking said "new production" not "supply".

From your referenced website, total "production" of silver was 646.1M oz. And one interesting fact the website shows is that despite a 2006 10% reduction in photographic demand (which will likely continue), industrial use has RISEN about 30% in the past 10 years.

Cnitas

I feel that a little math exercise is in order. I have rounded the numbers a little to make the silver usage lower and the supplies higher.

So lets call the world silver supply in 2006; 1,000 million ounces.
If production is 650 million oz, then we have a total of 1,650 million oz available for the year.
Demand is..lets call it 800 million oz.
So at the end of the year we have 850 million oz left. (1650-800)
That is a net loss of 150,000,000 oz of silver to the world silver supply.

At that rate, the current world supply runs out in the 7th year from 2006 (1000/150 = 6.67 yrs or 2013).
Using the numbers from that website, you run out in 4.7 years. (2011)

Production needs to ramp up at least 23% to keep stockpiles from falling further. The million dollar question is if world silver production can increase 23% in less than 5 years.

edited for spelling...

RWB

Good! Was hoping some folks would catch the difference. Keep working with established industry sources, not speculation, not 2nd or 3rd hand.

(Hint: both supply and new production fluctuate, as does demand; technology also changes to make more efficient use of cost-sensitive resources. The total supply only runs out if nothing changes – which means it does not run out; there might also be a large surplus. Ck other industrial sources.)

cladking

<< <i>


What kinds of paper is this exactly?

Depositary receipts have to be accurate - otherwise someone goes to jail for fraud.
Futures contracts are legally binding to either deliver the silver or pay money damages.
ETFs are not backed in silver, just mutual funds that own shares of mining companies or one of the above... >>




Futures contracts are legally binding and this is what might cause
the shorts to go belly up. There are huge amounts of paper on the
market backed by entities which are unlikely to be able to cover or
sell if price moves sharply.

Depository agreements are like everything else, written in legalese
which is indecipherable to everyone except the lawyers who don't
agree what it says. There's little doubt that far more silver is being
sold than is being stored to back it. Some don't keep silver but still
charge to store it.

57loaded

to the OP

cladking

<< <i>My name is jim Hi. >>




Welcome aboard.

Here's a good recent thread about silver.

Of course, there's also the long one about gold and silver.

HonoluluDude

ted butler on the retail shortage